The 12 Tory Cabinet ministers set to lose seats in accordance with bombshell ballot

Top Tories Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt and Grant Shapps face being ousted in an election wipeout, a mega-poll has found.

Twelve of the ministers who sit around the Cabinet table are set to be kicked out. The Conservatives would lose 232 seats compared to 2019, dropping to just 140, according to YouGov’s projection.

The bombshell survey of almost 60,000 people forecasts that Rishi Sunak is on course to lead the party to its worst result in history. Cabinet casualties would include Esther McVey, Mel Stride, Victoria Pentis, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.

The MRP poll predicts Labour would win a 194-seat majority, the highest number since Stanley Baldwin won a majority of 208 in 1924.

It predicts Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will not win a single seat – but his announcement that he will return as leader and stand as a candidate could make things even more difficult for the Tories.

The Lib Dems are tipped to win 48 seats, up from just 15 when Parliament was dissolved last month. The SNP faces a tricky result in Scotland, returning just 17 MPs, down from 43. The Green Party and Plaid Cymru are each expected to get two.

YouGov interviewed 53,334 adults in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland.

List of projected Cabinet casualties

Jeremy Hunt – Chancellor – Godalming and Ash

Majority: 10,720

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Grant Shapps – Defence Secretary – Welwyn & Hatfield

Majority: 10,773

Vulnerable to: Labour

Penny Mordaunt – Leader of the Commons – Portsmouth North

Majority: 15,780

Vulnerable to: Labour

Mark Harper – Transport Secretary – Forest of Dean

Majority: 15,869

Vulnerable to: Labour

Alex Chalk – Justice Secretary – Cheltenham

Majority: 1,421

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Mel Stride – Work and Pensions Secretary – Central Devon

Majority: 17,300

Vulnerable to: Labour

Johnny Mercer – Veterans Affairs Minister – Plymouth Moor View

Majority: 13,262

Vulnerable to: Labour

Esther McVey – Common Sense Minister – Tattor

Majority: 19,281

Vulnerable to: Labour

Simon Hart – Chief Whip – Caerfyrddin

Majority: 4,529

Vulnerable to: Labour

Victoria Prentis – Attorney General – Banbury

Majority: 13,799

Vulnerable to: Labour

David TC Davies – Welsh Secretary – Monmouthshire

Majority: 10,837

Vulnerable to: Labour

Gillian Keegan – Education Secretary – Chichester

Majority: 19,622

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

*Majorities are estimates of 2019 results adjusted for 2024 boundary changes