Humiliating mega-poll places Tories on track for wipeout with simply 71 seats

The Tories are currently leading in just 54 seats across the country – and are likely to win just 71 in the General Election, according to a mega-poll.

But Rishi Sunak’s party are currently trailing by less than 10% in 131 seats, according to MRP polling by Survation for Best for Britain. It means any narrowing of the polls in the remaining four weeks of the campaign could be the difference between the Tories losing – and being wiped out almost entirely.

The mega poll of 30,044 people projects Labour will win a mammoth 487 seats, with the Lib Dems in third place on 43.

All of the polling was carried out before Nigel Farage confirmed he would stand for election and resume leadership of Reform UK – which could cause an even bigger headache for the Conservatives. There are 68 seats where the Conservatives are less than 5% behind either the Labour, Lib Dem or SNP front runner. In a further 63 they trail by less than 10%.

In many of those seats, Reform UK could hold the balance of power if they stand a candidate.

While the model does not currently estimate seat wins for the Green Party, the high end of vote share estimates show the Green Party on 40% in Brighton Pavillion and 30% in Bristol Central.

Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain and founder of tactical voting website GetVoting.org said: “Nigel Farage’s shameless u-turn demonstrates how quickly this election can change and underlines the importance of continuous polling as candidates are confirmed, manifestos published and while a Reform-Tory stitch up remains possible.

“That’s why we will update GetVoting.org on 17 June, helping voters get it right with tactical voting recommendations based on the most up to date data and expert analysis.”

With a month still to go, all parties are urging voters to treat early polling data with caution. Candidates are yet to be confirmed – which is likely to change responses on a constituency level. And the launches of party manifestos and more TV debates are yet to come – all of which will impact how accurate the polls end up being.

Chris Hanretty, Professor of Politics at Royal Holloway University of London said, “With a month to go, there’s still a lot of uncertainty out there. Reform isn’t the favourite in any seat, but they’ve got reasonable chances in a handful. If they get a lucky roll of the dice, maybe they’ll end up with a couple of seats. For the Conservatives, it’s the opposite. Very few seats are locked in for them, and they’ll be trying to defend across a very broad range of seats and hope that fine margins tilt their way”.

Damian Lyons Lowe, CEO of Survation, said, “The outcome of the 2024 General Election will hinge on numerous highly marginal seat contests, with 126 seats currently showing a winning margin of less than 5%. Additionally, the Conservative Party is either leading or a close second in 184 seats. Given this, it is clear that the level of tactical voting will be a crucial factor in this election.”