ITV General Election debate – key assault traces for Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak

Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak will go head-to-head tonight for the first TV debate of the General Election campaign.

It is a make-or-break moment for Mr Sunak, who’s faltering campaign was dealt a hammer blow by Nigel Farage’s decision to become Reform UK leader and to stand in Clacton, Essex. The Prime Minister has been desperately trying to revive Tory fortunes but poll after poll has shown that he’s failed to make a dent in Labour’s commanding lead.

Tonight, the leaders will face off in an hour-long ITV debate, moderated by Julie Etchingham. It’s the third time Mr Sunak has taken part in an ITV debate hosted by Julie Etchingham. He stood in for Boris Johnson during the 2019 election campaign and he also ran unsuccessfully to be Tory leader in summer 2022 against Liz Truss.

Keir Starmer has not taken part in a TV debate since 2020 when he was running to be Labour leader. But he will be able to draw on his experience as the challenger at PMQs and from his time as the country’s top prosecutor.

There is much at stake before both men as they have the chance to make their case to the public – many of whom won’t be watching every stump speech and broadcast clip of the campaign trail.

TV debates can change the political weather. A strong performance by the-then Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg in 2010 led to an outbreak of “Clegg-mania”, which saw the party shoot up in the polls. But there is also plenty to lose – particularly for Mr Starmer, who is the frontrunner in the race for No10.

Here are the key attack lines – and where they’ll be on the defence – in tonight’s debate.

NHS

Keir Starmer: The Labour leader is likely to go for the Tories over the PM’s failed promise to bring NHS waiting lists down. The state of the health service is a key concern for voters – and Labour has promised to clear the 3.2 million-strong backlog of people waiting more than 18 weeks for treatment within five years.

Rishi Sunak: A hostile question from an audience member, such as a NHS nurse or a patient on a waiting list, could prove incredibly tricky as he tries to defend the Conservative Party‘s record. The total waiting list in England is around 6.3 million people, and just over 7.5million cases. The Tories have pledged to create new GPs and hand more power to pharmacies – but the PM is vulnerable on lack of access to GPs, dentists and long waits for hospital treatment.

Cost of living

Keir Starmer: He will try to turn the screws on the Tories over the economic chaos triggered by Liz Truss, and the hit to ordinary people’s wallets. Labour has thrown everything at winning trust on the economy from the Tories – and has won the backing of big business. But Mr Starmer will face questions on Labour’s tax plans and how it would fund cash-strapped public services. He is also vulnerable on helping the poorest Brits as Labour has refused to axe the two-child benefit cap or back an expansion of free school meals, despite widespread support in the movement.

Rishi Sunak: The PM is likely to go hard on tax as the Tories have tried to take the fight to Labour on this issue in recent weeks. The PM has promised the Tories will lower taxes if they win – not mentioning the fact that his Government has put us on course for highest tax burden since the Second World War. Mr Sunak will go on the attack on his plan for a “triple lock plus” for pensioners, to prevent them being taxed on their state pension – which Labour hasn’t backed.

Immigration

Keir Starmer: Labour have made it clear that they won’t send asylum seekers to Rwanda and Mr Starmer will likely go for the PM about the £240million spent by the UK up to the end of last year. But Labour’s plans to find returns agreements with Europe need more meat on the bone.

Rishi Sunak: The PM responded to Nigel Farage entering the fray with an announcement for an annual cap on worker and family visas to drive down immigration. Net migration – the different between the number of people arriving and leaving the UK – hit record levels last year. The Tories are seriously vulnerable here. Mr Sunak will likely go on about his Rwanda deportation scheme, which he has failed to get up and running.

Law and Order

Keir Starmer: Labour has been trying hard to take over Tory territory, making stopping anti-social behaviour on their six first steps for change. Mr Starmer could challenge the PM on police numbers and the chaos in the justice system, with a courts backlog causing long waits for victims and full to bursting prisons forcing the Tories to allow offenders to be released early.

Rishi Sunak: The PM will try to make out that Labour is weak on law and order, and point to Tory commitments to hike police numbers. He’s on shaky ground on justice as the Government has been pushing conflicting policies on scrapping short sentences but also locking up shoplifters.

Defence and security

Keir Starmer: Labour have been trying to park their tanks on Tory lawns for months, with commitments to the nuclear deterrent and a host of veteran candidates. Mr Starmer has committed to supporting Ukraine and will likely take aim at the Tories for cutting the size of the army. But he’s vulnerable to criticism from his own side on his handling of the situation in Gaza, which Mr Sunak could exploit.

Rishi Sunak: The PM is keen to make this the core of his election offer to voters. The first Conservative Party broadcast was called “A Secure Future” and focused the war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the threats from authoritarian states. He has tried to claim – without evidence – that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be emboldened if Mr Starmer was PM. His pledge to bring back national service was a big talking point and he will point to commitments to hike defence spending to 2.5% of GDP/