Keir Starmer’s goal of not one but two General Election victories to give him 10 years in power isn’t a pipe dream when this pivotal contest is Labour’s to lose.
Landslide poll leads projecting massed hordes of Labour MPs and near extinction of the Conservative Party ahead of the real thing on July 4 – Britain’s independence from Tories day – signposts a political earthquake.
Sometimes we need to pinch ourselves this seismic shift is possible. Let’s remember how, five years ago, Labour crashed to its worst electoral defeat since 1935.
Two years ago Boris Johnson was planning for a third term. One year ago a minority Labour government would’ve been banked. Six months back a working majority was considered a Herculean feat. Next month Starmer will struggle to fit all his MPs on the government side of the House of Commons.
Partying liar Johnson, economy crashing Liz Truss and D-Day dodger Rishi Sunak did their very best to demonstrate that elections are largely lost by mis-governing parties. But credit where it’s due – driven Starmer and a professional, disciplined Labour Party with a fearsome will to win is suddenly seizing opportunities with both hands. The poisonous split on the Right between the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is a gift, a bonus transforming a Labour victory into a rout.
Donald Trump boasted before grabbing the White House tenure in 2016 that he could open fire on a crowded New York street and still be elected US President.
“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” bragged deranged Donald. Starmer is of sound mind and prosecuted rather than committed crimes yet it’s difficult to see what he could do to throw away his advantage in polls. To be only the seventh Labour of 58 Prime Ministers in history since Robert Walpole was the first in 1721 would be a remarkable feat in itself when Starmer was dealt a poor hand.
Fond of warning he has no wand, the Labour leader will require a magician’s skills to make the numbers add up and revive key public services while keep down main taxes.
Wealth generation is the gamble to fund missions on health, education, safer streets, opportunities and saving the planet from climate change. The intention, whispered a Labour strategist, is to under-promise and over-deliver to secure a second mandate and fresh five years in either 2028 or 2029.
Bitter Tory civil war and an ongoing battle to the death with Farage on the Right would assist, of course. Finding £3.4billion before the next election to lift 2.7 million kids out of poverty by axing the Tory cruel two-child benefit cap, a policy missing in Labour’s manifesto, could prove the test of Labour success or failure.
Expectations will be high. Living up to them will be difficult. Change to an attractive new direction of travel and Starmer in No10 will be no fleeting tenant like Sunak, Truss, Johnson and May.