Top Tories Jeremy Hunt, Alex Chalk and Penny Mordaunt face being ousted at the General Election, a mega-poll has found.
In devastating news for the PM, YouGov’s second MRP poll has predicted 13 Tories who are serving Cabinet ministers are set to lose their seats. Its last poll predicted 12 would be ousted. The Conservatives would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, according to YouGov’s projection. Labour would win 425 seats, up by 223.
The bombshell poll of around 40,000 people forecasts that Rishi Sunak is on track to lead the party to its worst result in history. Other Cabinet ministers who would lose their seats include Grant Shapps, Mel Stride, Victoria Prentis, Johnny Mercer and Simon Hart.
It predicts Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party will win five seats. It was projected to not win a single seat in YouGov’s last MRP poll but return as leader is only proving to make things more difficult for the Tories.
The Lib Dems are tipped to win 67 seats, up from just 11 at the election almost five years ago. The SNP faces a tricky result in Scotland, winning just 20 MPs, down from 48. The Green Party is expected to get 2 and Plaid Cymru are expected to get 4.
YouGov interviewed 36,161 adults in England and Wales and 3,818 in Scotland.
List of projected Cabinet casualties
Jeremy Hunt – Chancellor – Godalming and Ash
Majority: 10,720
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Grant Shapps – Defence Secretary – Welwyn & Hatfield
Majority: 10,773
Vulnerable to: Labour
Penny Mordaunt – Leader of the Commons – Portsmouth North
Majority: 15,780
Vulnerable to: Labour
Mark Harper – Transport Secretary – Forest of Dean
Majority: 15,869
Vulnerable to: Labour
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AFP via Getty Images)
Alex Chalk – Justice Secretary – Cheltenham
Majority: 1,421
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Mel Stride – Work and Pensions Secretary – Central Devon
Majority: 17,300
Vulnerable to: Labour
Johnny Mercer – Veterans Affairs Minister – Plymouth Moor View
Majority: 13,262
Vulnerable to: Labour
Simon Hart – Chief Whip – Caerfyrddin
Majority: 4,529
Vulnerable to: Plaid
Victoria Prentis – Attorney General – Banbury
Majority: 13,799
Vulnerable to: Labour
David TC Davies – Welsh Secretary – Monmouthshire
Majority: 10,837
Vulnerable to: Labour
Gillian Keegan – Education Secretary – Chichester
Majority: 19,622
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Michael Tomlinson – Illegal Migration Minister – Mid Dorset and North Poole
Majority: 16,570
Vulnerable to: Lib Dems
Richard Holden – Tory Deputy Chair – Basildon and Billericay
Majority: 20,749
Vulnerable to: Reform UK
*Majorities are estimates of 2019 results adjusted for 2024 boundary changes