A flurry of bets were placed on the likelihood of a July election with a major betting exchange the week before Rishi Sunak announced the date.
Thousands of pounds were wagered on a July date, starting the day after a “contingency planning” meeting to plan for a Summer election was held in Conservative HQ.
Data from Smarkets, the industry leader for political betting, shows thousands of pounds being wagered either for and against the election being in July between May 14th and May 18th. Mr Sunak announced on May 22nd that the election would take place on July 4th.
And the market probability of the election taking place in May – based on movements in the betting market – increased dramatically between May 17th and the evening of May 21st. A spokesperson for Smarkets confirmed that in April there had only been a “few small trades” on a July poll, putting the probability up to 12% – where it stayed mostly steady for two weeks.
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Smarkets)
But in mid-May the probability rocketed from 13% on May 17th to 29% on the evening of the 21st.
Smarkets said the betting pool for political issues is not as “liquid” as it is for major sporting events – meaning relatively small things, like a Tweet or newspaper article – can prompt activity. But the first real indication a July election was on the cards was a May 18th tweet from the Financial Times’ Lucy Fisher – who reported there had been a “contingency planning” meeting at CCHQ the previous Monday – May 13th.
The flurry of bets began on May 14th.
Rishi Sunak’s already beleaguered General Election campaign has been thrown into fresh turmoil over allegations of staff betting on the date of the election before it was announced.
With only weeks until polling day, the Conservatives’ director of campaigning Tony Lee was forced to take a leave of absence last night amid reports both he and his wife Laura Saunders, candidate for North West Bristol, are being investigated by the Gambling Commission.
It is understood a bet had been placed on the timing of the General Election. Ms Saunders and Mr Lee are the latest people with links to the Tory party or No 10 caught up in allegations about betting on the date of the July 4 contest, after Rishi Sunak’s aide Craig Williams last week apologised for putting a £100 bet on a July election three days before it was announced. Elsewhere, one of the Prime Minister’s police protection officers has been arrested by the Met for a bet on the election.
Speaking to reporters this morning, Levelling Up minister Michael Gove admitted the situation “doesn’t look great” for the Conservatives. On the Tory campaign battle bus in London, he told broadcasters: “Obviously, it doesn’t look great. And, obviously, the conclusions lots of people are drawing are not at all great. But I don’t know all the facts at the moment. I’d be loath to condemn without there being an investigation that’s been concluded.”
Labour and the Liberal Democrats have called for the Tories to suspend both Ms Saunders and Mr Williams. Asked about the Tory director of campaigns taking a leave of absence, Keir Starmer told The Mirror : “It’s astonishing that we’re in this place. However many people have already been identified as potentially involved in this. Rishi Sunak just needs to take action, he needs to account for exactly who knew what.