Bombshell ballot exhibits Tories pushed into third place behind Lib Dems

The Tories are at risk of getting fewer MPs than the Liberal Democrats, according to a mega-poll.

The bombshell survey of almost 20,000 people suggests 20 Cabinet ministers could lose their seats in the bloodbath – including Rishi Sunak.

The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicts that Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 250 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997.

If the results are repeated next week on election day, Labour would pick up 450 seats The Tories would be reduced to just 60 MPs, behind the Lib Dems on 71.

Ministers on course to be ousted include the PM, despite him having a whopping 24,331 votes majority in Richmond and Northallerton in North Yorks. Other potential Cabinet casualties are Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch.

Grant Shapps, Michelle Donelan, Victoria Atkins, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Esther McVey and Johnny Mercer are also at risk. Tories expected to survive who could fight a leadership election include James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Laura Trott.

The poll suggested that Reform UK could win around 18 seats, including those of Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson. Over the past fortnight, Find Out Now surveyed 19,993 people – which is around 10 times as many as a typical poll. The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method was used to successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.

Pollsters have found a wide variation when predicting the scale of the Tory defeat, but all have pointed to a catastrophic result for the party. Labour is set to do well by having its supporters better distributed throughout the country than in previous elections when it piled up votes in seats it already held while missing out in marginals it needed to win.

Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus, said: “The Conservatives are predicted to be in third place in terms of both votes and seats. That would be a disaster for them. Labour look set for a massive landslide, but with about one million fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017.”

It came as elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice warned that it was “too late” for Mr Sunak to turn things around. He said the PM has focused on the wrong things in the campaign, while also carrying the can for mistakes made by his predecessors.

Speaking at an event in London, he suggested the Tories could end up with anything between 50 and 150 MPs after July 4. Asked if there was anything Mr Sunak could do at this late stage to revive things, Sir John said: “To be honest on Sunak it’s too late. You’re not going to turn around a campaign like that at this stage.”

He told the event hosted by iNHouse Communications: “The fundamental mistakes were made by Boris and Liz Truss. The fundamental mistakes they made were last autumn believing that tax cuts and a focus on immigration would be able to turn things around.

“Some of us could have told them, ‘no, no, no, this is not going to work. You need to focus on the health service and you need to focus on trying to improve the economy’. And those are the two things that the party has really not wanted to focus on.”

Find Out Now interviewed 19,993 adults in Britain online between June 14 and 24.

Full results – who will win your seat?

Seat Name – Predicted Winner

Aberafan Maesteg – Labour

Aberdeen North – SNP

Aberdeen South – SNP

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East – SNP

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine – SNP

Airdrie and Shotts – Labour

Aldershot – Labour

Aldridge-Brownhills – Conservatives

Alloa and Grangemouth – SNP

Altrincham and Sale West – Labour

Alyn and Deeside – Labour

Amber Valley – Labour

Angus and Perthshire Glens – SNP

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry – SNP

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber – SNP

Arundel and South Downs – Conservatives

Ashfield – Reform

Ashford – Labour

Ashton under Lyne – Labour

Aylesbury – Labour

Ayr Carrick and Cumnock – Labour

Ayrshire Central – Labour

Ayrshire North and Arran – SNP

Banbury – Labour

Bangor Aberconwy – Labour

Barking – Labour

Barnsley North – Labour

Barnsley South – Reform

Barrow and Furness – Labour

Basildon and Billericay – Labour

Basildon South and East Thurrock – Labour

Basingstoke – Labour

Bassetlaw – Labour

Bath – Lib Dems

Bathgate and Linlithgow – Labour

Battersea – Labour

Beaconsfield – Lib Dems

Beckenham and Penge – Labour

Bedford – Labour

Bedfordshire Mid – Labour

Bedfordshire North – Conservatives

Bermondsey and Old Southwark – Lib Dems

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – SNP

Bethnal Green and Stepney – Labour

Beverley and Holderness – Labour

Bexhill and Battle – Labour

Bexleyheath and Crayford – Labour

Bicester and Woodstock – Lib Dems

Birkenhead – Labour

Birmingham Edgbaston – Labour

Birmingham Erdington – Labour

Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley – Labour

Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North – Labour

Birmingham Ladywood – Labour

Birmingham Northfield – Labour

Birmingham Perry Barr – Labour

Birmingham Selly Oak – Labour

Birmingham Yardley – Labour

Bishop Auckland – Labour

Blackburn – Labour

Blackley and Middleton South – Labour

Blackpool North and Fleetwood – Labour

Blackpool South – Labour

Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney – Labour

Blaydon and Consett – Labour

Blyth and Ashington – Labour

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton – Labour

Bolsover – Labour

Bolton North East – Labour

Bolton South and Walkden – Labour

Bolton West – Labour

Bootle – Labour

Boston and Skegness – Reform

Bournemouth East – Labour

Bournemouth West – Labour

Bracknell – Labour

Bradford East – Labour

Bradford South – Labour

Bradford West – Labour

Braintree – Conservatives

Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe – Lib Dems

Brent East – Labour

Brent West – Labour

Brentford and Isleworth – Labour

Brentwood and Ongar – Labour

Bridgend – Labour

Bridgwater – Labour

Bridlington and the Wolds – Conservatives

Brigg and Immingham – Labour

Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven – Labour

Brighton Pavilion – Green

Bristol Central – Green

Bristol East – Labour

Bristol North East – Labour

Bristol North West – Labour

Bristol South – Labour

Broadland and Fakenham – Reform

Bromley and Biggin Hill – Labour

Bromsgrove – Labour

Broxbourne – Conservatives

Broxtowe – Labour

Buckingham and Bletchley – Labour

Buckinghamshire Mid – Conservatives

Burnley – Labour

Burton and Uttoxeter – Reform

Bury North – Labour

Bury South – Labour

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket – Labour

Caerphilly – Labour

Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross – Lib Dems

Calder Valley – Labour

Camborne and Redruth – Labour

Cambridge – Lib Dems

Cambridgeshire North East – Conservatives

Cambridgeshire North West – Labour

Cambridgeshire South – Lib Dems

Cannock Chase – Reform

Canterbury – Labour

Cardiff East – Labour

Cardiff North – Labour

Cardiff South and Penarth – Labour

Cardiff West – Labour

Carlisle – Labour

Carmarthen – Plaid Cymur

Carshalton and Wallington – Lib Dems

Castle Point – Labour

Ceredigion Preseli – Plaid Cymur

Chatham and Aylesford – Labour

Cheadle – Lib Dems

Chelmsford – Lib Dems

Chelsea and Fulham – Labour

Cheltenham – Lib Dems

Chesham and Amersham – Lib Dems

Cheshire Mid – Labour

Chester North and Neston – Labour

Chester South and Eddisbury – Labour

Chesterfield – Labour

Chichester – Lib Dems

Chingford and Woodford Green – Conservatives

Chippenham – Lib Dems

Chipping Barnet – Labour

Chorley – Labour

Christchurch – Conservatives

Cities of London and Westminster – Labour

Clacton – Reform

Clapham and Brixton Hill – Labour

Clwyd East – Labour

Clwyd North – Labour

Coatbridge and Bellshill – Labour

Colchester – Labour

Colne Valley – Labour

Congleton – Labour

Corby and East Northamptonshire – Labour

Cornwall North – Lib Dems

Cornwall South East – Labour

Cotswolds North – Reform

Cotswolds South – Lib Dems

Coventry East – Labour

Coventry North West – Labour

Coventry South – Labour

Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy – Labour

Cramlington and Killingworth – Labour

Crawley – Labour

Crewe and Nantwich – Labour

Croydon East – Labour

Croydon South – Labour

Croydon West – Labour

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch – SNP

Dagenham and Rainham – Labour

Darlington – Labour

Dartford – Labour

Daventry – Labour

Derby North – Labour

Derby South – Labour

Derbyshire Dales – Labour

Derbyshire Mid – Labour

Derbyshire North East – Conservatives

Derbyshire South – Labour

Devon Central – Labour

Devon North – Lib Dems

Devon South – Conservatives

Devon South West – Labour

Dewsbury and Batley – Labour

Didcot and Wantage – Lib Dems

Doncaster Central – Labour

Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme – Labour

Doncaster North – Labour

Dorking and Horley – Lib Dems

Dorset Mid and Poole North – Conservatives

Dorset North – Conservatives

Dorset South – Labour

Dorset West – Lib Dems

Dover and Deal – Labour

Droitwich and Evesham – Conservatives

Dudley – Labour

Dulwich and West Norwood – Labour

Dumfries and Galloway – SNP

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – Labour

Dunbartonshire West – Labour

Dundee Central – Labour

Dunfermline and Dollar – SNP

Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard – Conservatives

Durham North – Labour

Durham, City of – Labour

Dwyfor Meirionnydd – Plaid Cymur

Ealing Central and Acton – Labour

Ealing North – Labour

Ealing Southall – Labour

Earley and Woodley – Labour

Easington – Labour

East Grinstead and Uckfield – Conservatives

East Ham – Labour

East Kilbride and Strathaven – Labour

Eastbourne – Lib Dems

Eastleigh – Lib Dems

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh – SNP

Edinburgh North and Leith – SNP

Edinburgh South – Labour

Edinburgh South West – Labour

Edinburgh West – Lib Dems

Edmonton and Winchmore Hill – Labour

Ellesmere Port and Bromborough – Labour

Eltham and Chislehurst – Labour

Ely and East Cambridgeshire – Conservatives

Enfield North – Labour

Epping Forest – Conservatives

Epsom and Ewell – Lib Dems

Erewash – Labour

Erith and Thamesmead – Labour

Esher and Walton – Lib Dems

Essex North West – Labour

Exeter – Labour

Exmouth and Exeter East – Conservatives

Falkirk – SNP

Fareham and Waterlooville – Reform

Farnham and Bordon – Lib Dems

Faversham and Kent Mid – Labour

Feltham and Heston – Labour

Fife North East – Lib Dems

Filton and Bradley Stoke – Labour

Finchley and Golders Green – Conservatives

Folkestone and Hythe – Labour

Forest of Dean – Conservatives

Frome and East Somerset – Lib Dems

Fylde – Labour

Gainsborough – Labour

Gateshead Central and Whickham – Labour

Gedling – Labour

Gillingham and Rainham – Labour

Glasgow East – Labour

Glasgow North – Labour

Glasgow North East – Labour

Glasgow South – Labour

Glasgow South West – SNP

Glasgow West – Labour

Glastonbury and Somerton – Lib Dems

Glenrothes and Mid Fife – SNP

Gloucester – Labour

Godalming and Ash – Lib Dems

Goole and Pocklington – Conservatives

Gordon and Buchan – SNP

Gorton and Denton – Labour

Gosport – Reform

Gower – Labour

Grantham and Bourne – Labour

Gravesham – Labour

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes – Labour

Great Yarmouth – Reform

Greenwich and Woolwich – Labour

Guildford – Lib Dems

Hackney North and Stoke Newington – Labour

Hackney South and Shoreditch – Labour

Halesowen – Labour

Halifax – Labour

Hamble Valley – Conservatives

Hamilton and Clyde Valley – Labour

Hammersmith and Chiswick – Labour

Hampshire East – Conservatives

Hampshire North East – Conservatives

Hampshire North West – Conservatives

Hampstead and Highgate – Labour

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston – Labour

Harlow – Conservatives

Harpenden and Berkhamsted – Lib Dems

Harrogate and Knaresborough – Lib Dems

Harrow East – Labour

Harrow West – Labour

Hartlepool – Labour

Harwich and North Essex – Labour

Hastings and Rye – Labour

Havant – Labour

Hayes and Harlington – Labour

Hazel Grove – Lib Dems

Hemel Hempstead – Labour

Hendon – Labour

Henley and Thame – Lib Dems

Hereford and South Herefordshire – Labour

Herefordshire North – Green

Herne Bay and Sandwich – Conservatives

Hertford and Stortford – Labour

Hertfordshire North East – Labour

Hertfordshire South West – Labour

Hertsmere – Labour

Hexham – Labour

Heywood and Middleton North – Labour

High Peak – Labour

Hinckley and Bosworth – Lib Dems

Hitchin – Labour

Holborn and St Pancras – Labour

Honiton and Sidmouth – Lib Dems

Hornchurch and Upminster – Conservatives

Hornsey and Friern Barnet – Labour

Horsham – Lib Dems

Houghton and Sunderland South – Labour

Hove and Portslade – Labour

Huddersfield – Labour

Hull East – Labour

Huntingdon – Reform

Hyndburn – Labour

Ilford North – Labour

Ilford South – Labour

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West – Labour

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire – SNP

Ipswich – Labour

Isle of Wight East – Labour

Isle of Wight West – Labour

Islington North – Independent

Islington South and Finsbury – Labour

Jarrow and Gateshead East – Labour

Keighley and Ilkley – Conservatives

Kenilworth and Southam – Conservatives

Kensington and Bayswater – Labour

Kettering – Labour

Kilmarnock and Loudoun – Labour

Kingston and Surbiton – Lib Dems

Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham – Labour

Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice – Labour

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire – Conservatives

Knowsley – Labour

Lancashire West – Labour

Lancaster and Wyre – Labour

Leeds Central and Headingley – Labour

Leeds East – Labour

Leeds North East – Labour

Leeds North West – Labour

Leeds South – Labour

Leeds South West and Morley – Labour

Leeds West and Pudsey – Labour

Leicester East – Labour

Leicester South – Labour

Leicester West – Labour

Leicestershire Mid – Labour

Leicestershire North West – Labour

Leicestershire South – Conservatives

Leigh and Atherton – Labour

Lewes – Lib Dems

Lewisham East – Labour

Lewisham North – Labour

Lewisham West and East Dulwich – Labour

Leyton and Wanstead – Labour

Lichfield – Labour

Lincoln – Labour

Liverpool Garston – Labour

Liverpool Riverside – Labour

Liverpool Walton – Labour

Liverpool Wavertree – Labour

Liverpool West Derby – Labour

Livingston – Labour

Llanelli – Labour

Lothian East – Labour

Loughborough – Labour

Louth and Horncastle – Reform

Lowestoft – Labour

Luton North – Labour

Luton South and South Bedfordshire – Labour

Macclesfield – Labour

Maidenhead – Conservatives

Maidstone and Malling – Conservatives

Makerfield – Labour

Maldon – Conservatives

Manchester Central – Labour

Manchester Rusholme – Labour

Manchester Withington – Labour

Mansfield – Labour

Melksham and Devizes – Lib Dems

Melton and Syston – Labour

Meriden and Solihull East – Labour

Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare – Labour

Mid Dunbartonshire – Lib Dems

Middlesbrough and Thornaby East – Labour

Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East – Labour

Midlothian – Labour

Milton Keynes Central – Labour

Milton Keynes North – Labour

Mitcham and Morden – Labour

Monmouthshire – Labour

Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr – Labour

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey – SNP

Morecambe and Lunesdale – Labour

Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke – SNP

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) – SNP

Neath and Swansea East – Labour

New Forest East – Conservatives

New Forest West – Conservatives

Newark – Labour

Newbury – Conservatives

Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West – Labour

Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend – Labour

Newcastle upon Tyne North – Labour

Newcastle-under-Lyme – Labour

Newport East – Labour

Newport West and Islwyn – Labour

Newton Abbot – Lib Dems

Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor – Labour

Norfolk Mid – Labour

Norfolk North – Lib Dems

Norfolk North West – Conservatives

Norfolk South – Labour

Norfolk South West – Labour

Normanton and Hemsworth – Labour

Northampton North – Labour

Northampton South – Labour

Northamptonshire South – Labour

Northumberland North – Labour

Norwich North – Labour

Norwich South – Labour

Nottingham East – Labour

Nottingham North and Kimberley – Labour

Nottingham South – Labour

Nuneaton – Labour

Old Bexley and Sidcup – Labour

Oldham East and Saddleworth – Labour

Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton – Labour

Orkney and Shetland – Lib Dems

Orpington – Reform

Ossett and Denby Dale – Labour

Oxford East – Labour

Oxford West and Abingdon – Lib Dems

Paisley and Renfrewshire North – Labour

Paisley and Renfrewshire South – Labour

Peckham – Labour

Pembrokeshire Mid and South – Labour

Pendle and Clitheroe – Labour

Penistone and Stocksbridge – Labour

Penrith and Solway – Labour

Perth and Kinross-shire – SNP

Peterborough – Labour

Plymouth Moor View – Reform

Plymouth Sutton and Devonport – Labour

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley – Labour

Pontypridd – Plaid Cymur

Poole – Conservatives

Poplar and Limehouse – Labour

Portsmouth North – Labour

Portsmouth South – Labour

Preston – Labour

Putney – Labour

Queen’s Park and Maida Vale – Labour

Rawmarsh and Conisbrough – Labour

Rayleigh and Wickford – Labour

Reading Central – Labour

Reading West and Mid Berkshire – Labour

Redcar – Labour

Redditch – Labour

Reigate – Labour

Renfrewshire East – Labour

Rhondda and Ogmore – Labour

Ribble South – Labour

Ribble Valley – Labour

Richmond and Northallerton – Labour

Richmond Park – Lib Dems

Rochdale – Labour

Rochester and Strood – Labour

Romford – Labour

Romsey and Southampton North – Conservatives

Rossendale and Darwen – Labour

Rother Valley – Conservatives

Rotherham – Labour

Rugby – Labour

Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner – Conservatives

Runcorn and Helsby – Labour

Runnymede and Weybridge – Lib Dems

Rushcliffe – Labour

Rutherglen – Labour

Rutland and Stamford – Conservatives

Salford – Labour

Salisbury – Lib Dems

Scarborough and Whitby – Labour

Scunthorpe – Labour

Sefton Central – Labour

Selby – Labour

Sevenoaks – Conservatives

Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough – Labour

Sheffield Central – Labour

Sheffield Hallam – Labour

Sheffield Heeley – Labour

Sheffield South East – Labour

Sherwood Forest – Labour

Shipley – Labour

Shrewsbury – Labour

Shropshire North – Lib Dems

Shropshire South – Conservatives

Sittingbourne and Sheppey – Labour

Skipton and Ripon – Reform

Sleaford and North Hykeham – Labour

Slough – Labour

Smethwick – Labour

Solihull West and Shirley – Labour

Somerset North – Labour

Somerset North East and Hanham – Labour

South Holland and The Deepings – Conservatives

South Shields – Labour

Southampton Itchen – Labour

Southampton Test – Labour

Southend East and Rochford – Labour

Southend West and Leigh – Labour

Southgate and Wood Green – Labour

Southport – Labour

Spelthorne – Labour

Spen Valley – Labour

St Albans – Lib Dems

St Austell and Newquay – Labour

St Helens North – Labour

St Helens South and Whiston – Labour

St Ives – Lib Dems

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire – Lib Dems

Stafford – Labour

Staffordshire Moorlands – Labour

Stalybridge and Hyde – Labour

Stevenage – Labour

Stirling and Strathallan – Labour

Stockport – Labour

Stockton North – Labour

Stockton West – Labour

Stoke-on-Trent Central – Labour

Stoke-on-Trent North – Labour

Stoke-on-Trent South – Conservatives

Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge – Conservatives

Stourbridge – Labour

Stratford and Bow – Labour

Stratford-on-Avon – Labour

Streatham and Croydon North – Labour

Stretford and Urmston – Labour

Stroud – Labour

Suffolk Central and Ipswich North – Labour

Suffolk Coastal – Conservatives

Suffolk South – Reform

Suffolk West – Labour

Sunderland Central – Labour

Surrey East – Labour

Surrey Heath – Lib Dems

Sussex Mid – Lib Dems

Sussex Weald – Conservatives

Sutton and Cheam – Conservatives

Sutton Coldfield – Labour

Swansea West – Labour

Swindon North – Labour

Swindon South – Labour

Tamworth – Labour

Tatton – Labour

Taunton and Wellington – Lib Dems

Telford – Labour

Tewkesbury – Lib Dems

Thanet East – Labour

Thirsk and Malton – Conservatives

Thornbury and Yate – Lib Dems

Thurrock – Labour

Tipton and Wednesbury – Labour

Tiverton and Minehead – Lib Dems

Tonbridge – Conservatives

Tooting – Labour

Torbay – Lib Dems

Torfaen – Labour

Torridge and Tavistock – Conservatives

Tottenham – Labour

Truro and Falmouth – Labour

Tunbridge Wells – Conservatives

Twickenham – Lib Dems

Tynemouth – Labour

Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Labour

Vale of Glamorgan – Labour

Vauxhall and Camberwell Green – Labour

Wakefield and Rothwell – Labour

Wallasey – Labour

Walsall and Bloxwich – Labour

Walthamstow – Labour

Warrington North – Labour

Warrington South – Labour

Warwick and Leamington – Labour

Warwickshire North and Bedworth – Labour

Washington and Gateshead South – Reform

Watford – Labour

Waveney Valley – Green

Weald of Kent – Conservatives

Wellingborough and Rushden – Labour

Wells and Mendip Hills – Lib Dems

Welwyn Hatfield – Labour

West Bromwich – Labour

West Ham and Beckton – Labour

Westmorland and Lonsdale – Lib Dems

Weston-super-Mare – Labour

Wetherby and Easingwold – Conservatives

Whitehaven and Workington – Labour

Widnes and Halewood – Labour

Wigan – Labour

Wiltshire East – Labour

Wiltshire South West – Labour

Wimbledon – Lib Dems

Winchester – Lib Dems

Windsor – Lib Dems

Wirral West – Labour

Witham – Labour

Witney – Lib Dems

Woking – Lib Dems

Wokingham – Lib Dems

Wolverhampton North East – Labour

Wolverhampton South East – Labour

Wolverhampton West – Labour

Worcester – Labour

Worcestershire West – Labour

Worsley and Eccles – Labour

Worthing East and Shoreham – Labour

Worthing West – Labour

Wrekin, The – Labour

Wrexham – Labour

Wycombe – Labour

Wyre Forest – Labour

Wythenshawe and Sale East – Labour

Yeovil – Lib Dems

Ynys Mon (Anglesey) – Labour

York Central – Labour

York Outer – Labour