Inside murky world of political betting – how a lot you’ll be able to win if ‘within the know’

Who will replace Rishi Sunak? Will Nigel Farage join the Tories? Could Keir Starmer face a no confidence vote in his first year?

They are just some of the questions that people are not only asking – but hoping to make a packet on.

And while the political stakes are high, the financial ones can be too. Bet £10 on both Gavin Williamson and Priti Patel losing their seats on July 4 and you could win £140, while a £50 flutter on Labour beating Reform in Clacton could earn you £350. Wager £100 on Nadine Dorries becoming the next Tory leader – stranger things have happened – and you could pick up a sweet £30k.

Welcome to the world of political betting, something largely unheard of by most of the general public before the Tory election gambling scandal – but which has actually been going on for years and become something of a Westminster addiction.

Tory troubles deepened yesterday after it emerged yet another Conservative candidate, Welsh Senedd member Russell George, was being investigated by the Gambling Commission for betting on the date of the General Election.

He is the third Tory candidate to be named as part of the commission’s investigation, while two Tory officials, Rishi Sunak’s close protection officer and five other officers are under investigation. Up to 15 Conservative candidates and officials are being investigated in the probe, according to BBC Newsnight.

Meanwhile, cabinet minister Scotland secretary Alister Jack also admitted he put three wagers on the timing of the poll, but denied breaking any rules and said he is not under investigation.

But while for voters it’s another example of same-old Tories profiting from power, Fluttergate has also thrown a spotlight on a pastime which experts say is more common inside the Westminster bubble than most people imagine.

Paul Motty, a former professional political gambler who now sets the political odds for betting site BetOnline.ag, says: “Among the people who engage in politics betting has been part of the landscape for a long time.

“It’s quite normal, and for those in Westminster it seems to be a never ending conversation. Guessing the election date is a classic example, but it’s not just that, it’s everything. There’s a never ending supply of speculation.

“It’s similar to the horse racing world. I can’t imagine there are many people connected to horse racing who don’t have a bet, and that’s the same in the world of politics. It doesn’t mean they’re cheating, but it’s completely natural to the environment in which they are in.

“And especially the past few years of the Conservative government has been a betting bonanza.”

Mr Motty says his biggest wins in recent years was backing Jeremy Corbyn to become Labour Party leader, and betting on Boris Johnson not making it through his first term.

He says: “I backed Corbyn when the odds were 28-1, I made about £7k.

“We’ll get this election over and immediately it will be, who will be next Tory leader, which contenders will be first out of the block to condemn Sunak, will Farage join the Tories? Then of course we’ll get the biggest market of them all, the American elections.”

Political historian Anthony Broxton says it’s no coincidence that politicians often speak using betting vocabulary.

He says: “Politicians are always talking about the odds as a barometer of who’s up and who’s down. It’s normal to hear betting language, and see them shaking hands on a bet. Just look at Rishi Sunak agreeing to a bet with Piers Morgan, or Johnathan Ashworth agreeing to a £10 bet on Sky News.”

But he also says politicians are gamblers “by their nature”.

“They are highly switched on to what’s happening around them, take a lot of interest in data and many are risk takers, so betting does lend itself to that. There is also a lot of unpredictability in politics, something can happen which can suddenly change the outcome.

“There are politicians in the past who have made a lot of money out of gambling, and there are probably many others that we don’t know of as well.”

He says that for most in politics the appeal of betting isn’t just the money. “They like to think they know more than the bookmakers.

“Political punters are smarter than the average punter in the sense that they’ll be looking at data and models, they’ll be on the ground knocking on doors, and getting a better idea than a bookmaker who’s really just looking at a poll. So they’ll place a bet not just to win money but to show that they know better than the pollsters and bookmakers.”

Paul Motty believes the betting culture is stronger among Conservative MPs. “Sunak has talked about his love of spread-betting when he was a young investment banker, and many Tories come from the same background. I’m quite sure most people working in finance are used to betting, it’s what they do.

“If you take the average Labour backbencher, who have been a social worker or teacher, then maybe not. There are fewer people from those occupations who gamble.”

Although political betting has been around for over 100 years, it was in 1963 when it left the realm of city traders, when Harold Macmillan resigned as Prime Minister and Ladbrokes odds complier Ron Pollard convinced his bosses to run a book on the outcome of the leadership contest.

Since then it has become an increasingly popular pastime in Parliament – and has long been getting politicians into trouble.

Liberal MP Clement Freud was once notorious for being the shrewdest punter in Westminster when he was the candidate in the Isle of Ely by-election in 1973.

Having begun as the 33/1 outsider, he managed to place £1,000 on himself, winning the equivalent of £340,000 in today’s money when he became the MP.

In 1994, the late Charles Kennedy, then LibDem president, was caught out betting that his part would fare worse than expected.

Despite his party briefing that they were on course to win up to 10 seats, Mr Kennedy staked a £50 bet on them winning a mere two – he was right and his bet returned him £2000.

In 2000, Labour MP Frank Roy was hauled before the Standards and Privileges committee after making around £3400 betting on Michael Martin to become the new Speaker.

Roy apologised and claimed that he didn’t actually have the money, because “Mrs Roy has taken it and spent it”.

Politicians have also used betting for publicity purposes. In 2016, Nigel Farage placed a £1,000 bet on a Leave Brexit vote outcome, saying “the odds are moving in our favour and I’m very confident I’ll be back after the referendum to collect my winnings.” He did the same in 2019, betting on his party to win the most seats during the European elections.

And in the 2021 London mayoral election the odds of rank outsider Brian Rose, an ex-Wall Street banker who never polled more than 2%, were suddenly gambled down from 50-1 to as low as 5-1 – a strategy, many believe, to get people talking about him.

Paul Motty says that it was in 2016 when political betting really took off and left the confines of Westminster, although it is still a relatively unknown sector of the gambling industry dominated by sports. “That year there were two massive odds upsets, Brexit, and Trump becoming president.

“That really engaged the wider public, and more bookmakers started offering odds on politics and a lot more markets. It was much more of a niche thing until then. Today you can get odds on every single constituency in the UK, something which you didn’t have ten years ago.

“And once this election is over, people will be immediately betting on the next one. The Conservatives will now be huge outsiders. Whoever places a bet on them now winning in five years time could be in for a huge payout if they do.”