Rishi Sunak predicted to lose seat in ballot and 20 Tory Cabinet ministers ousted

Top Tories Rishi Sunak, Oliver Dowden and Kemi Badenoch face being ousted in an election wipeout, a mega-poll has found.

Twenty of the ministers who sit around the Cabinet table are set to be kicked out.

The Tories would be reduced to just 60 MPs, behind the Lib Dems on 71, according to the projection by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus. Labour are set to win 450 seats, which would give them an unprecedented majority of 250.

Reform UK could win 18 seats, including those of Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson.

Ministers on course to be ousted include the Prime Minister, who has a whopping 24,331 votes majority in Richmond and Northallerton in North Yorks. Other potential Cabinet casualties are Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

Rishi Sunak to lose seat as 20 Tory Cabinet ministers ousted, mega-poll predicts

Michelle Donelan, Victoria Atkins, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Esther McVey and Johnny Mercer are also at risk.

Among the few Tories expected to survive are James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Laura Trott, who could all potentially become candidates in a leadership contest.

The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method was used to successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.

Find Out Now interviewed 19,993 adults in Britain online between June 14 and 24.

List of 20 projected Cabinet casualties

Rishi Sunak – Prime Minister – Richmond and Northallerton

Majority: 24,331

Vulnerable to: Labour

Oliver Dowden – Deputy Prime Minister – Hertsmere

Majority: 22,980

Vulnerable: Labour

Jeremy Hunt – Chancellor – Godalming and Ash

Majority: 10,720

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Grant Shapps – Defence Secretary – Welwyn & Hatfield

Majority: 10,773

Vulnerable to: Labour

Alex Chalk – Justice Secretary – Cheltenham

Majority: 1,421

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Michelle Donelan – Education Secretary – Melksham and Devizes

Majority:

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Victoria Atkins – Health Secretary – Louth and Horncastle

Majority: 27,883

Vulnerable to: Reform

Penny Mordaunt – Leader of the Commons – Portsmouth North

Majority: 15,780

Vulnerable to: Labour

Kemi Badenoch – Business Secretary – North West Essex

Majority: 23,227

Vulnerable to: Labour

Claire Coutinho – Energy Secretary – East Surrey

Majority: 20.565

Vulnerable to: Labour

Mel Stride – Work and Pensions Secretary – Central Devon

Majority: 17,300

Vulnerable to: Labour

Gillian Keegan – Education Secretary – Chichester

Majority: 19,622

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Richard Holden – Tory Deputy Chair – Basildon and Billericay

Majority: 20,749

Vulnerable to: Labour

David TC Davies – Welsh Secretary – Monmouthshire

Majority: 10,837

Vulnerable to: Labour

Simon Hart – Chief Whip – Caerfyrddin

Majority: 4,529

Vulnerable to: Plaid

Victoria Prentis – Attorney General – Banbury

Majority: 13,799

Vulnerable to: Labour

John Glen – Paymaster General – Salisbury

Majority: 18,848

Vulnerable to: Lib Dems

Esther McVey – Common Sense Minister – Tatton

Majority: 19,281

Vulnerable to: Labour

Andrew Mitchell – International Development Minister – Sutton Coldfield

Majority: 19,272

Vulnerable to: Labour

Johnny Mercer – Veterans Affairs Minister – Plymouth Moor View

Majority: 13,262

Vulnerable to: Reform UK

*Majorities are estimates of 2019 results adjusted for 2024 boundary changes

Andrew MitchellCabinetConservative PartyEsther McVeyGeneral ElectionGeneral election pollsGrant ShappsJames CleverlyJeremy HuntJohn GlenJohnny MercerLabour PartyLaura TrottLee AndersonNigel FaragePenny MordauntPoliticsRichard Holden