General Election ballot tracker LIVE: Labour holds lead as election day nears

Labour still ahead by 19% in final poll before election

In the final stretch before the General Election, the latest Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll reveals that Labour maintains a commanding lead, albeit slightly reduced.

Labour holds a 19% lead over the Conservatives, a slight dip from last week’s 23%.

Despite this narrowing, Labour’s 41% vote share remains robust, matching their lowest since Boris Johnson’s tenure, signalling strong support under the current leadership.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have inched up to 22%, their highest since late May.

Polling numbers below:
Labour 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Other 2% (–)

The poll was conducted amongst an extra-large sample of 20,000 voters across Great Britain from Friday 28 June to Monday 2 July.

Most Britons ready to give Starmer a chance, new poll reveals

The majority of Britons are prepared to give Sir Keir Starmer’s potential government the benefit of the doubt, according to a recent YouGov poll.

The survey reveals that 21% of the public have high hopes and believe a Starmer-led administration will do a good job.

Meanwhile, 35% are willing to see how it goes despite low expectations, and 33% think a Starmer government would perform poorly.

Keir Starmer tops Rishi Sunak by 15 points in economic confidence poll

Labour’s Keir Starmer has matched his best-ever lead over Rishi Sunak on economic trust, polling at 44% compared to Sunak’s 29%, a new Redfield and Wilton Strategies survey reveals.

This blow to the PM comes despite his frequent boasts about his pandemic-era chancellorship and efforts to curb inflation.

Sunak’s warnings of Labour tax hikes appear to be falling on deaf ears.

Keir Starmer 44% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 29% (–)
Changes +/- 14-17 June

Labour nabs SNP, Tory and Lib Dem voters in new poll

Labour is winning over a quarter of voters who backed other major parties in 2019, according to a new YouGov poll for Sky News.

Labour leads with 35% in Scotland, outpacing the SNP’s 29%. The Conservatives and Lib Dems are neck-and-neck at 11%, while Reform UK holds 8% and the Greens 5%.

Notably, 24% of former SNP supporters now back Labour, with similar numbers of ex-Tory and Lib Dem voters switching allegiance.

The Tories face further losses, with 22% of their 2019 voters moving to Reform UK and less than half remaining loyal.

Polling numbers below:

Labour 35%
SNP 29%
Conservatives 11%
Lib Dems 11%
Reform UK 8%
Green Party 5%

A poll of 1059 adults in Scotland was conducted between 20th – 25th June 2024

Labour maintains strong lead despite recent polling dip

Labour’s recent polling results may show a decline in voter support, but the party remains poised for a significant electoral advantage, according to recent data.

Despite a four percentage point drop following Sir Keir Starmer’s debate with Rishi Sunak and heightened scrutiny of policies, Labour maintains a substantial lead with a 38 per cent vote share.

In contrast, the Conservatives stand at 21 per cent, with Reform trailing at 14 per cent.

Electoral Calculus predicts Labour could secure over 260 seats more than the nearest competitor, setting them on track to claim 459 seats.

A poll of 2,092 adults by Savanta for The Telegraph, was conducted between Wednesday and Thursday.

Starmer and Sunak Clash in final debate with polls revealing a tie

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer went head-to-head in the last of three fiery debates last night, and a snap YouGov poll shows a split decision on who came out on top.

In a repeat of our ITV debate poll, viewers are evenly divided, with 50% backing each leader.

On individual performance, Starmer edged out with 61% saying he did a good job, compared to Sunak’s 56%.

Starmer was seen as more trustworthy, likeable, and in touch with ordinary people, while both leaders tied on being ‘prime ministerial.’

Starmer scored higher on welfare and the EU, with Sunak leading on immigration and tax. Both were neck and neck on the economy.

YouGov interviewed 1,716 viewers across Great Britian.

Government satisfaction hits historic low as Sunak’s approval plummets

A staggering 83% of Brits are dissatisfied with the government, marking the worst score in Ipsos’ records at this stage of a campaign since 1979.

Only 20% are satisfied with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, while 75% are dissatisfied, resulting in a dismal net score of -55.

This is the worst rating for any Prime Minister at this point in an election campaign since Ipsos began tracking in 1979, surpassing John Major’s -27 in 1997.

Labour leader Keir Starmer fares slightly better with a 33% satisfaction rate, up 2% from early June. However, 52% remain dissatisfied.

In a head-to-head comparison, Starmer is seen as the more capable Prime Minister, with 46% backing him over Sunak’s 21%, almost unchanged from earlier this month.

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,402 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain between the 21st to 24th June 2024.

Poll predicts biggest majority for Labour since WWII

Labour is set for a stunning victory, projected to win 465 out of 632 seats across England, Scotland, and Wales, a “mega-poll,” from The Economist found.

This would give Labour a historic majority of 280 seats, the largest since World War II.

The Conservatives face a catastrophic collapse, predicted to secure just 76 seats, their lowest ever.

Voters are deserting the Tories in droves, with many shifting allegiance to Reform UK.

Labour is also poised for significant gains in Scotland, with the SNP expected to drop from 48 to 29 seats.

WeThink surveyed a representative sample of 18,595 British adults between May 30th and June 21st.

Labour Surges Ahead as Tories Sink to All-Time Low

Labour holds a strong lead with 42% of the vote , while the Conservatives plummet to a historic low, according to a new Ipsos poll.

Reform UK soars by 6 points to 15%, their highest ever with Ipsos, and the LibDems climb 3 points to 11%.

Rishi Sunak is now the most unpopular Prime Minister at this stage of a campaign, according to Ipsos.

Over a third of voters might still change their minds before polling day, but a record 72% express their dislike for the Conservatives.

Polling numbers below:

Labour 42% (-1)
Conservative 19%
Reform UK 15% (+6)
Liberal Democrat 11% (+3)
Greens 7% (-2)

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,402 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain between the 21st to 24th June 2024.

Support for Conservatives in Wales has dropped by half since 2019

The Conservatives have lost support across the United Kingdom including Wales, finds poll from Savanta

The Tories won only 19% of votes compared to the 36% of votes they won in 2019. The Labour party now towers over the Tories with 49% of votes from the latest poll.

Reform UK tied with Plaid Cymru party with 12% of votes while the Lib Dems lagged behind with 5% of votes from the Welsh people.

The poll results are the following:

• Lab 49 (+8)
• Con 19 (-17)
• Plaid 12 (+2)
• Reform 12 (+7)
• LD 5 (-1)
• Green 3 (+2)

This data was gathered 14 June to 18 June using 1,026 Welsh adults.

Labour more trustworthy than the Conservatives on every policy, new poll finds

UK citizens say they are more trusting of a Labour government for healthcare, a poll from Redfield & Wilton finds.

A staggering 43% said they trust the Labour party the most to support the NHS whereas only a slim 15% trust the Tories.

Labour also beat the Tories on education as 41% trust Labour’s policy to improve schools, but only 17% believe in the Conservatives’ plan.

Voters also said they believe the economy is in safer hands with a Labour government as they won 38% of votes compared to the Tories’ small 23% of votes

Labour is the victor again for immigration policy as they won 33% of votes, far greater than the 18% of votes for the Tory party.

31% of people trust Labour’s management of the war in Ukraine compared to a mere 22% of people who trust the Tories to govern international conflict.

The poll results are the following:

(Labour | Conservative)

• NHS (43% | 15%)
• Education (41% | 17%)
• Economy (38% | 23%)
• Immigration (33% | 18%)
• Ukraine (31% | 22% )

The data was gathered 21 June to 24 June including 10,000 people

Labour set for 250-seat majority as Tories face gaining fewer than 100 seats, according to new poll

Starmer continues to dominate in polls as Labour party is on path for a 250-seat majority with 41.4% of British voters compared to only 23% of votes for the Conservatives, according to poll by Focaldata

Predicted turnout is set to mirror the 1997 style defeat as Tories are at risk of securing less than 100 seats in Parliament.

The losses include Godalming and Ash (Jeremy Hunt), Cheltenham (Alex Chalk) and Monmouthshire (David TC Davies).

Probabilistic seat counts:

Labour: 450
Conservative: 110
Liberal Democrats: 50
SNP: 16
Plaid Cymru: 2
Reform UK: 1
Green: 1

The Poll was conducted between 3 June to 20 June and interviewed 24,536 adults across Great Britain.

Reform UK maintains lead ahead of the Conservatives while Labour is steady on top

Reform UK ranks second in the polls with 19% of votes, giving the party a one point lead ahead of the Tories, a major poll from Redfield and Wilton revealed.

Reform UK maintains its highest ever vote share meanwhile the Tories are stuck at their lowest ever vote share of 18%, a one point lower outcome than when under Liz Truss.

However, luck continues for Labour as the party secures a steady 23% advantage ahead of Reform UK.

The poll results are the following:

Labour 42% (–)
Reform UK 19% (–)
Conservative 18% (–)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)

This poll was conducted from 21 June to 24 June involving 10,000 people

Labour slingshots ahead of Tories with a 33-point lead in new London poll

More voters make the switch from blue to red as Starmer races ahead in the polls with a 33-point lead in London, a Savanta Survey for the Mile End Institute finds.

A strong majority of 55% of Londoners plan to vote Labour, whereas only a mere 22% plan to vote Tory.

Lib Dems have won 10% of the votes, placing them ahead of the rightwing party, Reform UK, at 8% and the Green Party at 5%

Here are the results from the poll:

Lab 55 (+2)
Con 22 (-1)
LD 10 (-3)
Reform 8 (=)
Green 5 (+1)

This research was conducted from 10 June to 18 June involving 1,022 adults

Labour gains an almost record-breaking lead in polls while Tories lag behind

Labour continues to lead in the polls at 40%, meanwhile the Conservatives scrape just 20% support, Opinium poll for the Observer finds.

Starmer’s 20-point figure is the highest Labour advantage since Liz Truss’ chaotic and quick-burn standing in No 10.

Bad luck for Sunak continues as Reform UK snatch up 16%, an increase of two points on a week ago.

Green Party climb up to 9% following a rise in popularity, whereas Lib Dems remain stagnant on 12%.

Poll numbers as follows:

•Labour 40% (n/c)
•Conservatives 20% (-3)
•Reform 16% (+2)
•Lib Dems 12% (n/c)
•Greens 9% (+2)
•SNP 3% (+1)

The data was collected from 19 June to 21 June involving 1,484 people.

Fed-up Britons accuse Tory government of poor handling of the cost of living crisis

With the general election creeping up, 80% of people say that the Conservatives are poorly managing the cost of living crisis, stacked up against the slim 16% who think it is going well, a YouGov poll finds.

Disapproval of the handling includes 62% of 2019 Tory supporters. Of these previous Conservative backers, only 34% think the cost of living has been managed well.

The polling was conducted 10 June to 11 June 2024 involving 2111 adults.

Major defeat for Tories again as they lose a third of their voters, poll finds

The Tories are on a downward spiral as they lose up to a third of voters who supported the party only four months ago, the latest Ipsos poll for the Financial Times finds.

Analysis uncovers that veteran Tory supporters are unsteady as 32 per cent of people who originally said they would back Sunak have now changed their mind.

Reform UK stole 8 per cent of the Conservative voters polled, 6 per cent flipped to Labour, 7 per cent confessed as undecided and 9 per cent said they were unlikely to vote at all.

The biggest rival to the Tories, the Labour Party, have also lost support as a quarter of people who planned to vote for Labour have changed their minds, with 9 per cent less likely to vote.

The polling was conducted from 29 May to 5 June involving 15,805 people

Greens set to snatch two Tory seats in rural uprising

Green Party co-leader Adrian Ramsay reveals internal polling shows Greens are poised to break Tory grip on countryside constituencies

The Green Party is on the verge of a historic breakthrough, with fresh polls indicating they could seize two rural seats from the Conservatives in the next general election.

Green co-leader Adrian Ramsay announced that internal surveys show the party is leading in Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire, marking a significant expansion beyond their urban bases.

This potential shift follows previous polls that suggested the Greens could maintain Brighton Pavilion and capture Bristol Central from Labour.

Sunak’s popularity plummets to record low in new poll

Rishi Sunak’s favorability among Britons has sunk to unprecedented depths, with a staggering 75% holding an unfavourable view of the Prime Minister, marking the highest dissatisfaction on record.

According to the latest YouGov survey, only 19% of respondents view Sunak favourably, resulting in a dismal net favorability score of -56.

This dire rating places Sunak below even the lowest points of previous leaders. He now fares worse than Jeremy Corbyn did at his nadir, surpassing Corbyn’s lowest net score of -55.

Even compared to Boris Johnson’s least popular phase before his resignation, Sunak’s current standing is bleaker, with Johnson scoring -53 in his final days in office.

As Sunak steers the Conservative Party toward what analysts predict could be its worst electoral defeat ever, the polls reflect widespread discontent.

A majority of 2019 Conservative voters (56%) and a notable portion of current party supporters (22%) hold negative views of the Prime Minister.

Labour maintains lead as Reform UK surpasses Conservatives in latest poll

Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ latest poll shows Labour leading by 23%, a slight drop from Monday’s poll.

For the first time, Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives, securing 19%, their highest ever share, with just two weeks until the UK General Election.

The Conservative Party remains stagnant at 18%, matching their lowest share in this Parliament.

The full numbers are as follows:

Labour 42% (-1)
Reform UK 19% (+1)
Conservative 18% (–)
Liberal Democrat 11% (-1)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 1% (–)

The data was collected between 19 – 20 June, with around 2,500 people consulted around Great Britian.

Rishi sunak faces crisis as majority of Brits say Conservatives out of touch, poll finds

A new poll conducted by YouGov for Times Radio reveals a stark political divide across the UK.

A significant 73% of respondents believe that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party are disconnected from local political issues.

The Labour Party doesn’t fare much better, with 57% of people feeling that Keir Starmer and his party are similarly out of touch.

Interestingly, 39% of those surveyed think they could do a better job than most current politicians.

These insights come from a comprehensive study involving 4,092 adults, carried out between 31st May and 4th June 2024.

Starmer’s Labour seen as inevitable winners, betting markets show

Parties across the political spectrum are now openly discussing a large Labour majority as inevitable, with odds of 1-16 that Keir Starmer’s party will form the next government.

Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives remain 1-3 favourites with Betfred to secure the most seats in the market without Labour, an improvement from 2-7 a week ago.

The Liberal Democrats have also seen a surge, now at 3-1 with Coral and Ladbrokes and as short as 9-4. Reform UK is priced between 10-1 and 14-1.

Nigel Farage’s best chance of winning a seat appears to be in Clacton, where he stands at 1-4 with bet365.

Despite his seven unsuccessful attempts to become an MP for Ukip, Farage remains a significant contender.

Conservatives heading for worst defeat in over 100 years

Labour is projected to secure 406 seats, achieving a majority of 162 according to polling by More In Common UK.

The Conservatives are set to lose over half their MPs, dropping to just 155 seats.

Among the notable losses for the Tories are Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, with Shapps losing Welwyn Hatfield to Labour.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats are poised to quadruple their representation to 49 MPs, and the SNP is expected to retain 18 seats.

The data was collected between May 22 and June 17, with more than 10,000 people across the UK.

Labour set for 200-seat majority but Tories brace for historic low

Labour is poised to win a staggering majority of 200 seats, according to a new YouGov projection, while the Conservatives face their worst defeat since their inception in 1834.

If these numbers hold true on 4 July, Labour would secure the second-largest majority since WWII.

The latest poll indicates a six-seat increase from the 3 June projection, now forecasting a 425-seat win for Labour. This would surpass Labour’s best-ever results and dramatically reshape the UK political landscape.

The Conservatives, led by Rishi Sunak, are projected to drop to 108 seats, a historic low, shattering their previous record of 141 seats in 1906.

Poll numbers below:

Labour 425 (+223)

Conservatives 108 (-257)

Liberal Democrats 67 (+56)

SNP 20 (-28)

Reform UK 5 (+5)

Plaid 4 (±0)

Green Party 2 (+1)

The polling was conducted from 11 June to 18 June with 39,979 people interviewed across the UK.

Sunak faces historic defeat in upcoming election, polls suggest

A major opinion poll indicates that Rishi Sunak may become the first sitting prime minister to lose his seat in a general election.

The Conservatives are expected to plummet to just 53 seats, with nearly three-quarters of the Cabinet likely to be ousted.

The Savanta and Electoral Calculus analysis shows the Liberal Democrats close behind with 50 MPs, positioning them to potentially become the official opposition.

Labour is forecast to dominate with 516 seats, giving Sir Keir Starmer a commanding House of Commons majority of 382—double the majority won by Sir Tony Blair in 1997.

Despite a rise in the polls, the Reform Party is projected to secure zero seats, marking yet another defeat for its leader, Nigel Farage.

Polling numbers below:

Labour: 516

Conservatives: 53

Lib Dems: 50

SNP: 8

Plaid C: 4

Other: 1

The polling consulted around 18,000 people between June 7 and June 18

Labour set for landslide victory in 2024 election, new projection shows

Labour is projected to secure a sweeping victory in the upcoming election, but over 100 seats held by the Conservatives are still too close to call, with millions of undecided voters holding the power to sway the results.

The latest Ipsos MRP model predicts Labour could win 453 seats, while the Conservatives are expected to secure only 115.

This would give Keir Starmer’s party a commanding majority of 256, marking the worst defeat in history for the Tories.

The projection also indicates that the Liberal Democrats could win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, with three each for the Greens and Reform UK.

Nigel Farage is forecasted to overturn a significant Conservative majority in Clacton, while Jeremy Corbyn, running as an independent, is expected to lose to Labour in Islington North.

Implied vote share below:

Labour 43%,

Conservatives 25%

Reform UK 12%

Lib Dems 10%

Green Party 6%

SNP 3%

Plaid Cymru 1%.

The survey was conducted between 7-12 June, and sampled opinion of nearly 20,000 participants across the UK.

Conservative’s attack on Labour’s tax policy backfires, new poll reveals

Conservative efforts to criticise Labour on tax have backfired, a new Survation poll exclusively for GMB revealed.

Despite Tory claims that Labour’s tax plans will cost voters £2000, more people trust Keir Starmer over Rishi Sunak on tax honesty (38% to 28%).

The poll also reveals Starmer’s largest lead yet in the race for Prime Minister, with 44% of respondents favouring him compared to 27% for Sunak.

Amid ongoing cost of living concerns, Starmer and Rachel Reeves continue to lead in economic trust over Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

Sunak’s popularity has taken a hit, with Nigel Farage now more popular both nationally (+15) and among 2019 Conservative voters (+6).

Labour 41% (-)

Conservatives 20% (-3)

Reform UK 15% (+3)

Liberal Democrats 12% (+2)

Green Party 6% (-)

Other 5% (+1)

SNP 2% (-1)

The poll was conducted between 14th – 18th June 2024 and surveyed 1,008 adults aged 18+ in the UK.

Labour set for landslide victory, but Tory seats at risk as election looms

Labour is poised for a sweeping victory in the upcoming election, according to a new projection.

However, over 100 Conservative-held seats are highly contested, with outcomes dependent on millions of undecided or swing voters.

The Ipsos MRP model predicts Labour could secure 453 seats while the Conservatives may win only 115.

This would hand Keir Starmer’s party a significant majority of 256 and result in the Conservatives’ worst defeat in history.

The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 38 seats, the Scottish National Party 15, with three seats each for the Greens and Reform UK.

Notably, Nigel Farage is on course to overturn a substantial Tory majority in Clacton, and Jeremy Corbyn, running as an independent, is expected to lose to Labour in Islington North.

Implied vote share below:

Labour 43%

Conservatives 25%

Reform UK 12%

Lib Dems on 10%

Green Party 6%

SNP on 3%

Plaid Cymru 1%.

The survey was conducted between 7 and 12 June and surveyed nearly 20,000 participants across Britain.

Labour surges to 27-point lead over Tories in latest poll

Labour still holds a substantial lead over the Conservatives, with a 27-point advantage, according to the latest Deltapoll survey.

The results show Labour with a commanding 46% of the vote, while the Conservative Party trails significantly at 19%.

The poll also reveals that the Reform Party holds 16%, the Liberal Democrats stand at 10%, and the Green Party has garnered 5%.

Meanwhile, the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru received 2% and 1% respectively, with other parties collectively receiving no significant support.

Polling numbers below:

Labour 46%

Conservative 19%

Reform UK 16%

Lib Dems 10%

Green Party 5%

SNP 2%

Plaid Cymru 1%

Other parties 0%.

The survey was conducted online between June 14 and 17 and sampled opinions from 1,383 adults across Britain.

Labour extends lead over Conservatives by 17 points in latest poll

Labour continues to lead with a commanding 17-point lead over the Conservatives in a recent poll conducted by Deltapoll.

The figures from the poll show Labour sitting comfortably with 40% of the vote, while the Conservative Party trails at 23%.

The Reform Party follows in third place with 18%, suggesting a notable presence in the political landscape.

The Liberal Democrats stand with nine percent, the Green Party 5%, and the Scottish National Party (SNP) 3%. Other parties collectively make up the remaining 1%.

Polling number below:

Labour 40%

Conservative 23%

Reform 18%

Liberal Democrats 9%

Green 5%

SNP 3%

Other parties 1%.

The survey was carried out online from June 14-16 among 2,038 adults across Britain.