The exit poll could hardly have been worse for the Tories. It is the nightmare most opinion polls have pointed to, if not as dire as the very worst.
If the exit poll is correct, the Tories will have just 131 seats in the new Parliament. This will be the lowest number they have had since the Conservative Party was founded in 1834. Labour is reckoned to be on course for a majority of around 170, close to what Tony Blair achieved in his first election victory.
In 1906, when it was pulverised by the Liberals, the Conservative Party won 156 seats. After a thrashing by Labour in 1945, it had 197. Following Labour’s landslide in 1997, there were 165 Tory MPs.
So yesterday’s abysmal showing is even worse than those humiliating routs. It is a calamity for the Tories. The only major party to have done worse in modern times is Labour in 1931, when it had just 52 seats.
We should of course apply the usual health warning. Exit polls aren’t invariably correct. In 2015, a hung Parliament was predicted, though in the event the Tories achieved a narrow majority.
If the exit poll is correct, the Tories will have just 131 seats in the new Parliament while Labour is reckoned to be on course for a majority of around 170
But exit polls usually supply accurate forecasts — the 2019 one was almost spot on — and even if there are variations when the final figures emerge, it’s most unlikely that the general picture of a Tory wipeout will change.
There are no excuses. It’s no good saying the Conservatives are the victims of our first-past-the-post system so that their proportion of the overall vote is significantly higher than their proportion of MPs in the new Parliament. These are the arrangements we have.
Yes, the Tories have been squeezed by Reform UK, which is itself a casualty of first-past-the-post. According to the exit poll, it will return 13 MPs, despite winning several million votes.
The centre-Right vote has been split, to the detriment of both the Conservatives and Reform, and Labour has won a record majority despite its proportion of the vote almost certainly being smaller than that of the Tories in 2019.
The result is a calamity for the Tories. The only major party to have done worse in modern times is Labour in 1931, when it had just 52 seats
Until the dust has settled, an inquest is obviously not possible, but certain things are already clear. During the campaign, Rishi Sunak volunteered to take responsibility for the outcome, and this he must now do. Whether he falls on his sword today, or in a few days or weeks, is immaterial. He has to go.
His first catastrophic error was to call an election when he could have waited until November or December, by which time the economic climate will be more benign than it is now. Interest rates are extremely likely to begin to fall in the next few months, giving mortgage relief to millions of homeowners.
The economy is turning upwards quite sharply: only this week the Office for National Statistics revised its growth figure for the first quarter to a healthy 0.7 per cent, the highest among the G7 large economies. The outlook is sunnier — and Labour will now take the credit.
Why Mr Sunak wasn’t prepared to wait until his plans had come to fruition is baffling. He resembles a fruit farmer who unilaterally and inexplicably decides to pick his harvest of apples when they are still rock hard, rather than wait until they have ripened.
At the outset, the Prime Minister managed to look like a chump, getting completely soaked as he announced the election outside No 10 in the pouring rain without having the good sense to hold an umbrella. It was a dreadful augury.
There followed a series of disasters. He cut an important D-Day celebration with world leaders, appalling many veterans. Then came the betting scandals. Although Mr Sunak bore no personal blame for officials having placed bets on the outcome of the election, the impression was of a shambles, and a corrupt one at that.
Nor did the PM appear to have given much thought to the possible return of Nigel Farage at the head of Reform, which event blew a hole in Tory fortunes. There was no strategy to deal with Mr Farage other than to beg Conservative voters not to support him.
To be fair to Mr Sunak, he worked tirelessly throughout the campaign, and bore every setback with good humour and resilience. He also performed well in the debates with Sir Keir Starmer, showing a sharper mind, as well as an occasional flash of steel.
But it says a lot about the Tories’ lacklustre and accident-prone campaign that it took Boris Johnson to set it alight on Tuesday with a characteristically rollicking performance. He could do what Rishi had failed to: inspire the Conservative rank-and-file to take the fight to Labour, and to try to skewer the evasive Sir Keir Starmer.
It was too late, of course. Whatever chances the Tories had of narrowing the gap with Labour, and seeing off Reform, had been squandered. Now they are consigned to the wilderness, weaker than ever before, and reeling from their worst defeat in history.