Rising temperatures in the UK could see 8,000 Brits killed by extreme heat every year by 2100, a new major report has warned.
This is a six-fold surge from the current figure of just over 1,000, the analysis published in the prestigious Lancet journal has found.
Researchers say if that if current global climate change policies don’t change, spiralling numbers of Brits will die from conditions such as heat exhaustion and heart failure related to over-heating.
The new analysis warns that Southern Europe, which includes countries like Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France is expected to be hit hardest by rising temperatures.
Currently the continent sees 44,000 health related deaths per year, but this could triple to almost 130,000 by start of the next century.
Firefighters try to extinguish a wildfire burning in Dionysos, Greece, August 12
Holly Mason and Hattie Chadwick, both 21, enjoy a day at Bournemouth beach in Dorset earlier this month
The authors said deaths in Europe and the UK were being exacerbated by an ageing population, which is increasingly vulnerable to the impact of high temperatures.
For the UK, a rise of 3C (37.4F) in global temperatures due to global warming – which the authors described an upper estimate – would see health related deaths rise to almost 8,000 per year.
It come after a series of sweltering summers in Europe and the UK, with 2023 the hottest year globally on record.
However, cold related-deaths were still predicted by the experts to be a far bigger killer in Britain.
Currently an estimated 65,000 Brits die each year from cold-related illnesses, such as respiratory infections and hypothermia, a figure that will remain relatively stable even if global temperatures rise by a 3C rise.
For Europe, the experts predicted a rise of 3C would marginally bring down cold-related fatalities overall to some 330,000 per year by 2100, compared to the 365,000 per year currently.
But if global temperature reaches 4C (39.2F), Britain could, on paper, benefit.
Under the modelling, a 4C increase would see cold-related deaths in the UK fall to just some 58,000, while heat related deaths would only go up 12,000, totalling 70,000 temperature-related deaths per year.
This compares to some 73,000 per year deaths under the 3C model.
However, European related temperature deaths would soar to 200,000 per year under such a 4C increase.
This only represents direct temperature related fatalities and doesn’t account for some of the other predicted impacts of such dramatic global temperature increases.
These include disruption to food and water supplies, increased flooding and wildfires, and subsequent humanitarian crises.
In the latest analysis researchers from across Europe, including those from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, examined data from over 1,000 regions across the continent.
They looked at health and population data from 854 European cities with populations over 50,000 to model the mortality risk from cold and heat among adults aged 20 to 85.
Publishing the data in the journal The Lancet Public Health, experts then used this data to predict how many temperature related deaths would occur in under four different temperature increases 1.5C (34.7F), 2C (35.6F), 3C and 4C.
Commuters in London did not look as though they were loving the heat in the capital earlier this month – as they were forced to cool themselves down with fans on their muggy journey home on the tube
Pictured visitors to the Essex seaside town of Walton on the Naze during the mini heatwave that crossed the UK earlier this month
June marks the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. Here, a woman cools off in a fountain in Moscow, Russia, June 30, 2024
Dr David García-León, of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre and author of the study, said the overall results showed an increasing aged population more vulnerable to extreme temperatures, especially heat.
‘We find that deaths in Europe from hot and cold temperatures will rise substantially as many more heat-related deaths are expected to occur as the climate warms and populations age, while deaths from cold decline only slightly in comparison,’ he said.
‘Our study also identifies hotspots where the risk of death from high temperatures is set to drastically increase over the next decade.
He added the results demonstrated a ‘critical need’ for policy makers to implement measure to protect both the worst hit areas and the most vulnerable people.
Dr Matteo Pinna Pintor, of the Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research who was not involved in the study, added: ‘These results reinforce previously expressed scepticism about large, unconditional reductions in cold-related mortality as temperate regions become warmer.’
Commenting on the study, Dr Leslie Mabon, lecturer in environmental systems at The Open University, who was not involved, said the results echo previous research showing extreme temperatures hit some groups harder than others,
‘What is especially striking is that the authors find clear differences in risk across country boundaries and also regional clusters of mortality risk,’ she said.
‘Temperature gradients do not respect borders, so, as the authors point out, this shows how demographic and socio-economic factors influence the risk we face from temperature extremes.’
However, she added there were policies governments could enact to help protect those most at risk.
Smoke rises over Parthenon temple during a wildfire near Athens, Greece, on August 12
Long periods of hot, dry weather and a lack of rain make wildfires more likely. Pictured, a firefighting helicopter drops water as a wildfire burns in Stamata, near Athens, Greece, June 30, 2024
‘There are counter-measures we can take, which may be particularly effective if they are targeted towards the most vulnerable people and places,’ she said.
‘For example, the study points to investment in health infrastructure, the presence of heat and cold preparedness plans, and the quality of the buildings we live and work in as factors that could reduce mortality under a changing climate.’
The study did have some limitations which the authors acknowledged. This included the data being based in urban populations where temperatures are higher, meaning the estimates may be overstated compared to rural areas.
Secondly the data didn’t account for anyone under 20. This means infants and another young groups vulnerable to temperature extremes weren’t included.
Although most countries have pledged to curb emissions to slow down global warming, a United Nations analysis published last year suggests the world is still on track to warm by nearly 3C by the end of the century.
The new analysis comes off the back of another that calculated that 47,000 people died in Europe due to scorching temperatures in 2023.
By the Barcelona Institute for Global Health, it found that, adjusted for population, Greece, Bulgaria, Italy and Spain were the countries with the highest mortality rates related to heat.
While Britain didn’t rank in the top 10 for heat-related highest mortality rates it came seventh in overall death toll with over 1,800 fatalities.
Italy recorded the highest number of deaths, with over 12,000, followed by Spain and Germany.
Heat has been dubbed by medics as a ‘silent killer’ due to the way it exacerbates existing health conditions, like those of the heart, meaning it kills far more people than would first appear.
Earlier this month Britain experienced its hottest summer day in two years with the mercury hit 34.8C (94.64F) in Cambridge.
While sunseekers were seen basking in the mini-heatwave, commuters were struggling with the temperatures in London.
The hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK was in 2022 when Coningsby in Lincolnshire made it to 40.3C (104.5F) on July 19.
This year’s heat has caused emergencies on the continent triggered wildfires forcing the evacuation of thousands of people.
Earlier this month British tourists in Greece were among those needing to be rushed to safety with wildfires raging as high as 80ft around the Parthenon temple in Athens.