Nearly a 3rd of pupils might fail GCSE English and maths

Tens of thousands of pupils across the UK will find out their GCSE results today.

Students in England, Wales and Northern Ireland are bracing for outcomes which could determine whether they go on to study A-levels, BTEC’s or apprenticeships.

However, college leaders say winning sought-after spots will be more competitive this year while fears have been raised that nearly a third of pupils could fail GCSE English and maths.

Many pupils have already applied to sixth forms in either colleges or schools, but many places are conditional on getting the right grades.

Selective courses at top colleges ask for at least grade 7s, meaning those missing that target will be looking for another place.

The Office for National Statistics estimates the population of 16-year-olds in England has risen by 34,595 – or 5.2 per cent – from 663,078 in 2023 to 697,673 this year.

Sixth Form Colleges Association chief executive Bill Watkin said: ‘It’s likely that there’ll be more competition to get a sixth form place.

‘There is going to be pressure on places because the number of new places created is less than the number of additional young people working their way through the system at the moment.’

David Hughes, chief executive of the Association of Colleges (AoC), added that capacity issues were ‘acute’ in a few areas – including Leeds.

The AoC, which represents vocational colleges as well as sixth forms, is calling for more Government funding to open up additional places.

Mr Hughes added: ‘We are worried that we’re getting to a point where in some places they simply won’t have the capacity to take on students.’

And Lee Elliot Major, professor of social mobility at the University of Exeter, agreed that competition will be ‘even more intense’ due to the population rise.

This year, grading in Northern Ireland and Wales will return to pre-Covid levels for the first time, after teacher assessment during the Pandemic led to record highs.

England’s grades were scheduled to return to normal last year, but were still slightly higher.

Professor Alan Smithers predicted UK-wide top grades at 7-9 could fall by up to 71,000 if all three countries return to 2019 grading levels.

It would mean a drop of 1.2 percentage points to 20.8 per cent.

However, he suggested we could see an increase in top grades instead, if there is a repeat of A-level day, when results reached a surprise record high for non-Covid times.

He pointed out there may be a ‘change in political mood’ and suggested officials are ‘currently giving the impression of wanting ‘feel-good’ results.’

This year group was in Year 7 when schools closed due to the lockdowns of 2020 and 2021, meaning they suffered substantial disruption to their education.

Sarah Hannafin, head of policy at the NAHT school leaders’ union, said members had reported a rise in requests for special arrangements – ‘particularly for small rooms’ to take exams away from the main hall.

She said: ‘I think some of that is representative of some of the anxiety that young people are facing as a result of what they’ve gone through over the past few years.

‘Those young people feel more comfortable in a smaller room to be able to take their exams.’

Meanwhile, one former ministerial special adviser said one in three GCSE maths and English results this year will be a ‘fail’ – and not all pupils should have been put through the exams,

Iain Mansfield, who advised three Conservative education secretaries, believes less able youngsters should instead have the option of a ‘core skills’ qualification at 16.

He said this was ‘more compassionate’ as many pupils are well below the ability to get level 4 – considered a ‘standard pass’ and the equivalent of the old C.

Mr Mansfield, now head of education at the Policy Exchange think-tank, said: ‘It’s important that standards are kept high and that a GCSE pass is recognised by employers. But it is pointless making some people sit something they are definitely going to fail.’

Alternative core skills qualifications already exist, focusing on real-world knowledge, but cannot be taken instead of GCSE.

Mr Mansfield added: ‘As long as the parents and children agree, letting children well below the standard of a pass take this instead would give them a qualification that they can put on their CV. We should recognise that while GCSE remains the gold standard, for some children the core skills papers are a better preparation for work and everyday life.’

It came as Will Goldsmith, head of the £46,000-a-year Bedales School in Hampshire, said GCSEs should be scrapped altogether for being too narrow and ‘rigid’.

Bedales is working with other leading independent schools as part of the national Rethinking Assessment coalition.

They are preparing a submission to Labour’s curriculum review team, led by Professor Becky Francis.

Bedales is working towards offering only two GCSEs in maths and English alongside its own Bedales Assessed Courses (BACS) at 16. The school currently offers five to six GCSEs.

Mr Goldsmith said: ‘GCSEs as they are run now are unnecessary and I think there are lots of ways we could serve young people better by avoiding this bottleneck and this standardised testing point which creates an enormous rigidity. 

‘The idea that any assessment can really encapsulate the complexity of a young person is problematic.’

The Department for Education said: ‘We have no intention of removing well-respected and valued qualifications, like GCSEs, as part of the review.’