DAN HODGES: Boris nonetheless has the facility to find out the Tories’ destiny

Carrie Johnson has returned to the political frontline. The former Tory PM’s wife is assisting Robert Jenrick in his bid for the Tory leadership. ‘Carrie is helping Rob,’ a Jenrick ally informed me. ‘She’s making calls for him.’

As the contest to replace Rishi Sunak meanders through the summer this represents a significant development. To date much of the focus is on the 121 Tory MPs who will determine the final shortlist to be presented to Tory members in October.

But within the campaigns of the six candidates – Jenrick, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat, Priti Patel and Mel Stride – increasing attention is being paid to the blond Cincinnatus earnestly tilling his plough on the retired statesman’s circuit.

‘Boris is the endorsement they all want,’ a former Cabinet Minister told me. ‘He’s not got directly involved in the contest yet. But he’s watching. And if it’s close, he could still turn out to be the kingmaker.’

Johnson’s friends say he has no plans to directly endorse anyone at this stage. But they do not rule out some form of intervention.

And some of his former Westminster colleagues still believe he may well place a discreet finger on the electoral scales.

‘He won’t come out yet,’ one told me. ‘But if it gets to the final two candidates, he may give a nod to someone he particularly likes.’

Which is why some of the candidates wanting to step into his battered brogues as Tory leader have been making a not-too subtle attempt to woo him.

As well as letting it be known Mrs Johnson was doing some discreet lobbying on his behalf, Jenrick announced last week he would like to see Johnson take up some sort of role in his shadow cabinet.

‘Yeah. I think what we need are the best people who are available in the Conservative family to be on the pitch,’ he said. ‘Supporting us to be a strong Opposition, holding Keir Starmer to account for all of the failings that we already see, and ultimately winning the next general election.’

This invitation to serve Team Jenrick was greeted with ridicule by some opponents.

‘It’s nuts!’ one MP who’s backing a Jenrick rival scoffed. ‘Everyone knows there’s only one job Boris wants. This idea he’d accept something like Party Chair, wandering round the local associations as part of the rubber-chicken circuit, is crazy.’

Another rival pointed to a statement Jenrick made during the crisis that ultimately cost Johnson the premiership.

‘It has become painfully clear that we are failing to provide the coherence, grip and direction that the country needs and deserves in these challenging times,’ Jenrick wrote in a Facebook post in July 2022.

‘If we continue along our present path, we risk doing lasting damage to the reputation of the Conservative Party for competence and good government.’

In response, Jenrick’s aides claim their charge has since come to realise the British political system needs the sort of shake-up that only disrupters such as Johnson can provide.

I also understand a number of Johnson’s biggest one-time donors have decided to throw their support behind Jenrick, and will publicly endorse him in the next few weeks.

But the one-time Ozempic-using former Home Office Minister is by no means the only contender hoping for a laying on of ex-Prime Ministerial hands.

Priti Patel and James Cleverly are two genuine political allies of Johnson and both remain in close contact with him.

The latter had lunch with him just before the election and is one of the few senior Tories who stood by Johnson during his political travails. When Johnson made his ill-fated attempt at a return after Liz Truss’s downfall, Cleverly backed him, saying: ‘The last few weeks show that being PM is tough and no other job in Government is quite like it. I know Boris has learned lessons from his time in No 10 and will ensure the focus is on the needs of the country from Day One.’

Patel also stood by her former boss, refusing to join those calling for his resignation, and turning down the opportunity to serve in the Cabinets of his two successors.

She was at his 60th birthday party in June and is understood to remain in regular touch via text.

Some of the other candidates are, however, being a little bit more circumspect.

An ally of Badenoch told me she was a “big admirer” of Johnson and had been happy to serve under him. But pointedly added that if he wanted a return to the political limelight, he would have to apply for selection as a parliamentary candidate “like everyone else”.

For their part, Johnson allies believe Badenoch had a direct hand in his downfall, and see her leadership bid as the culmination of a co-ordinated ‘coup’ involving her political ally Michael Gove.

Some MPs told me last week that they believe Carrie Johnson’s informal lobbying on behalf of Jenrick may even be part of a more concerted ‘Block Badenoch’ operation.

Tom Tugendhat is keeping an even greater distance. During the 2022 leadership election, those vying to succeed Johnson were asked whether they believed the outgoing PM was honest. Badenoch, Sunak, Truss and Penny Mordaunt prevaricated. Tugendhat simply shook his head and said ‘No’.

Asked about Johnson last week, Tugendhat replied: ‘Look, he is an amazing communicator… I don’t know what he wants to do in the future but I’m sure he’s going to make his voice heard.’

The increasingly tortuous courtship ritual surrounding the Tory’s prodigal premier is obviously driven primarily by self-interest.

Each candidate knows Boris remains popular among significant swathes of the electorate, and are keen for his imprimatur.

But it also reflects a deeper debate that is helping frame the leadership contest, and future direction of the Conservative Party. Some Tory MPs believe Johnson is vital to any fightback, especially in those Red Wall seats where Reform UK ate their vote alive in July.

But others fear he represents everything that voters came to hate about their party.

Particularly in those seats where they haemorrhaged votes to the Lib Dems.

One Shadow Cabinet member even raised a dark parallel with events unfolding across the Atlantic. ‘This has to be the moment we cut Boris loose,’ they told me, ‘because if we cling to him, we’re going to start to turn into a British version of the Republicans and Trump. We’ll never be able to shake him off, and move on.’

But to some Tories, Boris Johnson remains the kingmaker – or queenmaker. Whether he actually is may go a long way to determining the party’s fate.