Experts have warned us all of the terrifying dangers of nuclear war once again by wargaming a potential US vs China scenario.
Hint: it ends badly for everyone. But that hasn’t stopped boffins at the the Washington DC-based Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) from looking at what might happen in a war over Taiwan in less than 10 years time.
Experts Andrew Metrick, Philip Sheers and Stacie Pettyjohn told the Economist that in a scenario in which there has been a war over Taiwan ongoing for 45 days, China might be tempted to batter the US into submission with nukes. The weapons they would use are smaller “theatre” nukes which have a smaller field of devastation and smaller range.
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The nukes could be used as, 45 days into the conflict, both sides could be running low on stockpiles of non-nuclear weapons.
Targets would therefore be places like US military bases in the Pacific, such as in Guam and Kwajalein Atoll where many of America’s aircraft carriers are based.
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CNAS said: “The line between low-yield tactical nuclear weapons and precision-guided conventional weapons in terms of both their operational effects and perceived impact is blurring.”
Essentially, China might want to use Hiroshima-sized bombs to attack the US in a war scenario to completely destroy much of its military infrastructure in the Pacific, not necessarily to wipe out thousands upon thousands of civilians. But the devastating payload of a nuke also means that civilian casualties are nearly always expected.
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China also operates a “no first use policy” when it comes to deploying nuclear weapons, but the wargamers adjusted this in their scenario. This is partly because China might have a better chance at success due to the high number of US bases in Asia.
China, meanwhile, operates much of its military from the mainland, meaning any nuclear strike by the US on the could risk a massive escalation.
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Thankfully, there is some hope in this scenario that war between the US and China, potentially sparking a wider World War Three, might not plunge all of civilisation into the mire of death and destruction as thousands of “strategic” nuclear weapons are launched at each other. The use of strategic nuclear weapons, larger weapons with a bigger range, would likely wipe out millions of people in a matter of minutes.
China has long held unification with Taiwan, also known as the Republic of China (ROC), as one of its key goals.
(Image: Navy Office of Information/US NA)
China claims the democratically ruled island of Taiwan as its own territory, to be brought under its control by force if necessary, and has ramped up its military threat in recent years. Beijing in particular dislikes Taiwan’s new President Lai Ching-te, who took office earlier this year and whom Beijing has called a separatist.
US intelligence has suggested that Chinese President Xi Jinping told his military it needs to be ready to invade the island by 2027, the Independent said.
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The US has not said officially what its response would be, but in September 2022 President Joe Biden said the US would defend Taiwan if China invaded. It is not clear if such a scenario would involve troops on the ground.
This month, Taiwan’s military launched surface-to-air missiles in live-fire drills in response to growing military pressure from China. Among the missiles launched were Taiwan’s domestically-made Sky Bow III anti-ballistic missiles along with the US-made Patriot PAC II and surface-to-air Standard missiles.
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