How Israel-Hezbollah disaster might result in struggle in Middle East

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ramped up concerns of an all-out war in the Middle East after a ferocious exchange of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli military this weekend.

Israel and the Lebanese militant group began firing rockets and drones at each other a day after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza on October 7, but the aggression has been mostly limited to border skirmishes. 

That is until a rare Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut last month killed top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, prompting the group to vow retaliation.

Israel’s air force sent squadrons of fighter jets to conduct bombing raids on targets across southern Lebanon in a pre-emptive strike early on Sunday morning, with Hezbollah in return launching 320 missiles and wave upon wave of kamikaze drones into Israel.

As the dust settled, regional observers breathed a sigh of relief last night when diplomatic sources claimed the two sides had exchanged messages that neither wants to escalate further.

But a stonefaced Netanyahu declared: ‘We are striking Hezbollah with surprising, crushing blows… whoever harms us, we harm him,’ before later warning: ‘This is not the end of the story.’ 

The Prime Minister’s vow comes as his citizens continue to brace for a retaliatory strike from Iran in exchange for the assassination of former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month – all while US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered the presence of two aircraft carrier strike groups in the Middle East. 

Now, MailOnline examines what a new full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah could look like, what might happen in the event of another Iranian attack, and how the US would be forced to get involved if the tinderbox region sparked the world’s next major war. 

War with Hezbollah

Hezbollah, or the ‘Party of God’ in Arabic, is a Shia Islamist political and military organisation based in Lebanon that is believed to be the most heavily armed non-state actor in the world. 

Hezbollah and Israel last engaged in a major conflict in 2006, when a month-long battle ended in a draw. 

But the risks of a new war that could spread violence across the region are now far greater.

Lebanon has struggled with years of political and economic crises that left it indebted, without a stable electricity supply, a proper banking system and with rampant poverty.

The year 2020 brought yet more woe, with the Covid-19 pandemic further battering the economy as the devastating Beirut port explosion flattened several neighbourhoods in the heart of the capital. 

Yet Hezbollah has evolved into a much graver military threat than it was 18 years ago, and a new war would be far more destructive and prolonged.

Hezbollah in 2006 reportedly had some 15,000 rockets in its arsenal, ‘but more recent unofficial estimates suggest this number has multiplied by almost 10 times,’ said Dina Arakji, associate analyst at UK-based risk consultancy firm Control Risks.

Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) corroborates that assessment, estimating that the group’s arsenal counts 150,000 to 200,000 rockets, including ‘hundreds’ of precision missiles and thousands of drones.

Hezbollah also boasts a range of anti-tank and anti-air systems, a fleet of thousands of drones, and dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles – not to mention up to 100,000 active fighters.

And, like Hamas, Hezbollah has an extensive tunnel network along the Lebanese-Israeli border which serves as a strategic asset for clandestine movement, storage, and guerrilla warfare. 

Ultimately, Israel’s military capability is still superior. 

It has long been supported by the US with $3.3 billion in congressionally mandated annual funding, plus another $500 million toward missile defence technology that protects its skies from rockets and drones. The Jewish state also spends more than 5 per cent of its GDP on the IDF.

Its air force includes the advanced American F-35 fighter jet, missile defence batteries including the American-made Patriot, and the famous Iron Dome system.

Israel also boasts a massive fleet of armoured personnel carriers and tanks, along with 170,000 troops typically on active duty – not to mention hundreds of thousands of extra reservists that have been mobilised since October 7, plus around three million people who are fit for military service.

As of Sunday night, tensions seemed to have abated. 

Hezbollah’s aerial assault appeared to be aimed only at Israeli military targets with just one Israeli military casualty reported, while Danny Citrinowicz, an expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Hezbollah may have been trying to ‘balance the equation (for the assassination of its commander Shukr) without escalating into war.’ 

‘We will now reserve the right to respond at a later time’ if the results of Sunday’s attack aren’t sufficient, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, adding: ‘At this current stage, the country can take a breath and relax.’

Israel’s foreign minister also said his country did not seek a full-scale war, but Prime Minister Netanyahu warned his cabinet last night that ‘this is not the end of the story’ and said he is ‘determined to do everything we can to defend our country… whoever harms us – we harm him.’

Should exchanges of missiles and drone strikes between Israel and Hezbollah continue, as indicated by Netanyahu, another explosive, large-scale conflict is more likely to occur. 

While Jerusalem would assuredly emerge victorious thanks to its technological capabilities and raw numeric advantage in terms of firepower and manpower, Hezbollah would be able to inflict massive damage. 

Its terrifying missile and drone arsenal is large enough to quickly overwhelm Israel’s air defences if deployed in earnest, and the thousands upon thousands of Hezbollah fighters that could stream into northern Israel would be continuously supported by well established air and ground supply routes from its chief backer Iran via Iraq and Syria. 

Such a war would also spell disaster for civilians in both Israel and Lebanon – particularly citizens of the latter, many of whom have long been mired in poverty. 

UN agencies estimate an ‘uncontrolled conflict’ between Israel and Hezbollah would displace up to one million people – almost a fifth of Lebanon’s population – and the country is already reliant on meagre stockpiles of food and fuel.

Iran plots revenge as the US moves in

While Israel’s air force battered Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon over the weekend, millions of Israeli citizens were still anticipating a fresh strike from Iran. 

The Islamic Republic is the chief backer and financier of both Hezbollah and Hamas and represents Israel’s greatest threat. 

It has already launched one serious strike on Israel since October 7, sending a salvo of some 200 missiles and drones soaring towards Israeli targets in April following an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.

Almost all of those projectiles were intercepted by Israel’s air defence systems, and analysts at the time largely agreed the Iranian attack was merely symbolic – designed to display Tehran’s willingness for military engagement without causing real damage. 

But hopes that Iran would not seek to punish Israel further were erased on July 31, when former Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated as he lay in his bed hours after attending the inauguration of Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran.

Israel never took credit for the explosion which killed the Palestinian group’s leader in the Iranian capital, but Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei vowed to take revenge.

Messaging from the Islamic Republic has since been mixed, with diplomats claiming Iran is not seeking an escalation of tensions while simultaneously warning that Israel would not escape retribution for the explosion in Tehran. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi yesterday said: ‘Iran’s reaction to Israeli terrorist attack in Tehran is definitive, and will be measured & well calculated.

‘We do not fear escalation, yet do not seek it – unlike Israel.’

But international observers, including the US, believe Iran is still preparing to exact its revenge.

Speaking on the prospect of an Iranian strike, US national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on a briefing call last week: ‘It’s still a very perilous situation. I can’t predict what Iran’s going to do or not going to do. 

‘We believe they’re still prepared to do something if, in fact, they choose to do something, and that’s about as far as I’ll go.’

Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign ministry today declared off the back of Hezbollah’s missile attacks yesterday that Israel had lost its power to deter and that the strategic balance in the region had shifted against Jerusalem, further suggesting that Tehran could be encouraged to strike soon. 

‘Israel could not predict the time and place of a limited and managed response by the resistance. Israel has lost its deterrence power,’ Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani wrote on X.

Kanaani added that Israel ‘now has to defend itself within its occupied territories’ and that ‘strategic balances have undergone fundamental changes’ to the detriment of Israel.

With tensions between Iran and Israel close to boiling point, the US is now manoeuvering to discourage the Islamic Republic from taking any action that could trigger a major conflict.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin earlier this month ordered two aircraft carrier strike groups – the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Theodore Roosevelt – to deploy to the Middle East, and they are now thought to be in or around the Gulf of Oman off Iran’s southern shores.

An Air Force F-22 Raptor squadron has also arrived in the region along with cruise missile submarine the USS Georgia, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh announced on Friday. 

Hours before Hezbollah’s attacks this weekend, Austin also spoke with Israeli Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant and reiterated Washington’s ‘ironclad commitment to Israel’s defence against any attacks by Iran and its regional partners and proxies,’ according to a Pentagon statement.

It remains to be seen whether the reinforced US presence in the region dissuades Tehran from following through with its threat of revenge. 

Hopes of an Israel-Hamas cease-fire to calm tensions are flickering

The best hope for avoiding a large-scale conflict in the Middle East rests on desperate diplomatic efforts between representatives of Israel and Hamas, aided by international mediators from Egypt, Qatar and the US, to reach a cease-fire in Gaza.

But latest round of high-level talks held in Cairo that aimed to hash out an end to the 10-month Israel-Hamas war and bring about the return of Israeli hostages held in Gaza ended Sunday without a final agreement. 

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken last week travelled to the region for the ninth time since October 7 in a bid to meet with leaders and key decision makers before returned to the States without having secured any deal. 

But US officials, speaking to AP on condition of anonymity, said talks will continue in the coming days in an effort to bridge remaining gaps.

They said ‘working teams’ will remain in Cairo in hopes they can address remaining disagreements between Israel and Hamas and remove the roadblocks to ‘a final and implementable agreement’.

Such diplomatic efforts are seemingly central to avoiding the spread of war in the region, with Hezbollah having claimed on several occasions that it will halt its strikes on Israel if a cease-fire deal for Gaza is reached. 

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah also said that Sunday’s attack had been planned in advance, but was delayed to give the Gaza cease-fire talks a chance. 

But Netanyahu, in addition to warning of further conflict with Hezbollah, has repeatedly said the IDF will continue its operations in Gaza until Hamas is eliminated.

He has also insisted on Israeli forces maintaining a lasting presence in the strategic Philadelphi Corridor between the Egypt-Gaza border even in the event of a total cease-fire – a demand that has been rejected by Hamas and Egypt. 

These demands from Netanyahu, supported by the hard-right elements of his government that keep him in power, are seen as a key factor blocking a cease-fire deal from being sealed.