The Government’s decision to suspend arms export licences covering the sale of 30 types of military equipment to Israel will do little to hamper Jerusalem’s war in Gaza.
Parts for aircraft and drones and electronics for fighter-bomber guidance systems can be obtained elsewhere, but the shock announcement will deal a body blow to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu, coming when his grip on power has been dramatically weakened by a combination of strikes and mass demonstrations at home.
It will heap pressure on Israel, which is seeing international support for its war in Gaza slipping away, especially in the wake of US President Joe Biden’s warning that it must do much more to end the fighting.
A protester, wearing a mask of Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, raises his hands wearing gloves with red paint, during an anti-government rally
After the bodies of six Jewish hostages held captive by Hamas terrorists since October were found murdered on Saturday, millions in the war-weary country are desperate for change.
At least 100,000 protesters thronged the streets of the capital Tel Aviv on Sunday night, while thousands more demonstrated outside government offices in Jerusalem during a Cabinet meeting. Many brandished yellow placards that symbolised their support for a ceasefire.
Netanyahu is widely blamed for a series of cataclysms, starting with his failure to prevent the October 7 atrocities in which more than 250 people were kidnapped and 1,200 slaughtered in the first place.
Since then, despite razing much of the Gaza Strip, he has failed to destroy Hamas, failed to negotiate a peace deal and – above all – failed to bring the hostages home.
Although more than 100 hostages were freed in a temporary ceasefire deal late last year, only eight people have been rescued by force, and at least 35 of those remaining behind enemy lines are believed to be dead, with another 66 unaccounted for.
After 11 months at war with Hamas, Israelis seem close to civil strife at home – angered by the suspicion that Netanyahu is blocking peace deals, including a US-backed ceasefire plan, to cling to power.
He insists he is simply being realistic. ‘Whoever murders abductees does not want to do a deal,’ he said in a televised statement after the six bodies – all executed with bullets to the head – were recovered.
But many do not buy that. Yesterday, much of Israel was paralysed by a general strike, with schools, businesses and Ben Gurion international airport all shut down.
This was more than an expression of public discontent – it was a concerted effort to force Netanyahu to resign. The embattled prime minister’s great weakness is the list of corruption charges hanging over him, including allegations relating to fraud and bribery, that have dogged him for more than four years.
The Gaza crisis put proceedings against him on hold, but his many enemies in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, have no intention of letting them be forgotten. If the charges are proven, he faces not only financial ruin but possible imprisonment.
Families and supporters of Israeli hostages lift placards and chant slogans calling for their release during a rally in Tel Aviv
At 74, however, he is a master at forging unlikely alliances. He has the backing of hardline Right-wing partners such as security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir of the Jewish Power party, and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich from the Religious Zionism party.
Self-interest dictates he will try to hang on to power until he can cut a bargain to prevent his prosecution or rig the courts with sympathetic judges. But even if the great survivor of Israeli politics could be forced to drop the reins of power, it is not clear how that would happen or who might take over.
Retired army general Benny Gantz, aged 65, led calls for the strike and street protests, but he cannot easily command a parliamentary majority. If Netanyahu is ousted, it will be by a kaleidoscopic coalition with little in common except its loathing for him – an ‘Anyone But Bibi’ majority.
That coalition is growing. Even his loyal defence minister, Yoav Gallant, has turned against him. The two clashed over Netanyahu’s insistence on control of the Gaza Strip border with Egypt. Hamas says it won’t release hostages if Israeli troops stay there.
Despite the strikes, the protests and the plotting, Netanyahu might hang on for now.
Suspension of democratic processes is usual during war. A general election during Israel’s longest war would be bitterly divisive and could end without a clear result.
Israel is in no position to suspend its government until a different set of politicians can sort out a new coalition.
Without such an arrangement, Israel would be left rudderless when it is fighting a suicidal terrorist militia on its southern flank, the stronger, Iran-backed Hezbollah, which is poised to strike from Lebanon, and Iran itself, which is threatening attacks.
Meanwhile, clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians in the occupied West Bank are escalating.
The longer Netanyahu clings on, the more likely Israel’s national unity and collective identity will be ripped apart.
And that is exactly what Hamas wants.
Mark Almond is director of the Crisis Research Institute in Oxford