Iran has brokered secret talks between Russia and the Houthis in Yemen to transfer deadly anti-ship missiles that could be a ‘game changer’ for regional security and jeopardise British warships in the Gulf, sources have warned.
Multiple sources told Reuters that Russia is yet to decide whether to send Yakhont missiles to the Houthis, which experts said would allow the group to more accurately strike vessels in the Red Sea and increase the threat to the Western warships defending them.
The Houthis have launched repeated drone and missile strikes on ships in the crucial Red Sea shipping channels since November to show support for Palestinians in the Gaza war with Israel – as clashes with Hezbollah heat up in the north.
Edmund Fitton-Brown, Senior Advisor to the Counter Extremism Project and former Ambassador of the UK to Yemen, told MailOnline early Wednesday that the claims are ‘very concerning if true’ and appear ‘credible’ so far as Iran and Russia are ‘locked in a rejectionist-disruptor embrace’.
‘One key Russian objective is to show US weakness and thus make Trump’s reelection more likely,’ he said. ‘That potential strategic gain overrides all other considerations.’
Yemen’s Houthi movement supporters march in a parade in Sana’a on September 21, 2024
Smoke rising from the Sounion following Yemen’s Houthis attacks, in the Red Sea, August 29
File. The Yakhont missile could be a ‘game changer’ for regional stability, an expert warned
Russia could see a disruptive alliance with Iran as a way to undermine the United States
‘One key Russian objective is to show US weakness and thus make Trump’s reelection more likely,’ Edmund Fitton Brown told MailOnline early Wednesday
The Wall Street Journal reported in July that Putin was considering sending the missiles to the Houthis, but Iran’s role as an intermediary has not been previously reported.
Russia previously sent the missiles to Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon, now at the centre of the regional conflict with Israel.
‘Any successful upgrade of Houthi capabilities would also likely draw a kinetic Israeli response,’ Mr Fitton-Brown warned, adding that such a deal could ‘draw clearer lines of alliances’ between an axis of Russia and Iran against the West.
‘Iran is often thought not to want to see Trump back in office. But it is shrewd enough to see the risk of Soleimani type operations being more than offset by the weakening of NATO.’
‘Russia could easily suffer losses from indiscriminate Houthi actions in the Red Sea. But it’s happy to run that risk for what it sees as bigger gains from stoking conflict.’
US intelligence assessments previously found that Russia had tried to influence campaign to help Trump win in 2016 and 2020.
A US intelligence official assessed in July that ‘we have not observed a shift in Russia’s preferences for the presidential race from past elections, given the role the US is playing with regard to Ukraine and broader policy toward Russia’.
He did not name former president Trump.
Trump has shown a more isolationist foreign policy approach than the Democrats, and only on Tuesday told an audience in Georgia, US that the US needs to get out of the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine has benefitted from billions in aid, making up a fraction of US defence spending, as it endures the Russian invasion.
Trump’s line on Israel has been more inconsistent since leaving office. He has been critical of Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict since October 7 and referred to Hezbollah as ‘very smart’.
He also claimed the war would not have broken out had he been in office.
Still, experts warn that supplying the Houthi rebels with Russian missiles could spell disaster for the region.
Fabian Hinz, an expert on ballistic missiles with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, told Reuters that the transfer of Yakhont missiles to the Houthis would be a ‘game changer’ for regional security.
‘The P-800 is a far more capable system than the anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles the Houthis have used so far,’ said Hinz.
Mr Fitton-Brown suggested the success of the transfer of weapons to the Houthis would depend on how well they could deliver and deploy them ‘under the eyes of the US-led enforcement against them’.
‘What this might do is force the issue in the US about easing rules of engagement with Houthi targets and their immediate allies and facilitators. And might lead to an overdue review of Western policy towards the peace process in Yemen,’ he added.
Fires aboard the Sounion, a Greek-flagged oil tanker hit by the Houthis in August
The Houthis have attacked Israel and trading routes in the Red Sea over the war in Gaza
Escalation in the Middle East this week last night prompted Britain to announce it was preparing to evacuate as many as 10,000 people trapped in Lebanon with warships stationed in the region as cross-border exchanges escalate between Israel and Hezbollah.
These are currently in the Mediterranean and troops are expected to operate out of Cyprus.
But Hinz warned the Houthis, armed with lethal Russian missiles, could direct them towards British and US warships that have been protecting commercial vessels in the Red Sea, dividing Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
He added that they could also be used as land-attack weapons that Saudi Arabia would see as a threat.
Mr Fitton-Brown suggested both the Saudis and the Egyptians were ‘cautious actors wary of a potential change of US orientation in November’.
A senior U.S. official, speaking to Reuters, said that a delegation of officials discussed the Russia-Houthi negotiations with their Saudi counterparts during a visit to Saudi Arabia this summer, and that Washington has raised the issue with Moscow.
The Saudis have also conveyed their concerns directly to the Russians, three sources told the news agency.
Hinz said Russia would need to help with the technical aspects of a missile delivery, including how to transfer and make them operational without the United States detecting and destroying the weapons. The Houthis would also need training on the system.
The senior U.S. official warned of dire consequences if the transfer takes place.
‘The Saudis are alarmed. We are alarmed, and other regional partners are alarmed,’ the official said.
‘The Houthis are already creating enough damage in the Red Sea, and this would enable them to do more.’
Rebels in Yemen have sunk at least two vessels and seized another, disrupting global maritime trade by forcing shipping firms to divert cargos and, according to industry sources, driven up insurance costs for ships plying the Red Sea.
In response, the United States and Britain have struck Houthi positions but have failed to stop the group’s attacks.
Two regional officials aware of the talks said that the Houthis and Russians met in Tehran at least twice this year and that the talks to provide dozens of the missiles, which have a range of about 186 miles, were ongoing with further Tehran meetings expected in coming weeks.
One of the sources said the talks started under Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May.
‘Russia is negotiating with the Houthis for the transfer of Yakhont supersonic anti-ship missiles,’ said a Western intelligence source. ‘The Iranians are brokering the talks but do not want to have their signature over it.’
Neither Iran’s U.N. mission nor the Russian Defense Ministry responded to requests for comment.
‘We have no knowledge of what you have mentioned,’ said Mohamed Abdel-Salam, the official spokesman for Yemen’s Houthis.
A senior U.S. official declined to name the specific systems that could be transferred but confirmed that Russia has been discussing supplying missiles to the Houthis, calling the development ‘very worrisome.’
A U.S. Defense Department official said any efforts to bolster the Houthis’ capabilities would ‘undermine the shared international interest in global freedom of navigation and stability in the Red Sea and broader Middle East.’
Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023
A handout photo made available by the Yemeni Al-Joumhouriya TV shows the last part of the British-registered cargo vessel, Rubymar, sinking in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, March 3
Mock Houthis-made drones and missile are on display at a square in Sana’a, Yemen, May 29, 2024
Russia and Iran have been nurturing closer military ties amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. Tehran has allegedly transferred ballistic missiles to Moscow for use against Ukraine, the United States said earlier this month.
One motivation for Moscow to arm the Houthis, three sources said, is the possibility that Western states could decide to allow Ukraine to use their weapons to strike farther into Russian territory.
The senior U.S. official said the Russia-Houthi talks ‘seem to be related to our posture in Ukraine and what we´re willing or not willing to do’ regarding Kyiv´s requests for the lifting of restrictions on its use of long-range U.S.-supplied weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned in June that Moscow could send advanced long-range weapons – similar to those the United States and its allies give Ukraine – to the West’s adversaries around the world.
The Yakhont is considered one of the world’s most advanced anti-ship missiles, designed to skim the sea’s surface to avoid detection at more than twice the speed of sound, making it difficult to intercept.
MailOnline contacted the Ministry of Defence for comment.