The UK’s first named storm of the season is set to bring a threat to life and injuries with 80mph winds and heavy rain.
After an unseasonably hot week for October, with some parts of the UK reaching 20C, Storm Ashley is due to sweep across Northern Ireland, Scotland, parts of Wales and northern England.
Gusts of 80mph could hit north-west Scotland and ‘injuries and danger to life is likely from large waves and beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties’, the Met Office said.
An amber weather warning is in place for the north-west of Scotland on Sunday, as well as a yellow warning for the entirety of Scotland and Northern Ireland, and parts of north-west England and Wales.
The amber warning will be in force from 9am on Sunday until midnight, and the yellow between 3am and midnight.
AMBER WARNING: An 18-hour amber wind warning runs on Sunday from 9am until midnight
Storm Ashley is due to sweep across Northern Ireland , Scotland, parts of Wales and northern England
Gusts of 80mph could hit north-west Scotland and ‘injuries and danger to life is likely from large waves and beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties’
A yellow warning has been put in place for Sunday from 9am-11.59pm, with 80mph winds likely over parts of western Scotland
YELLOW WARNING 1: The Met Office issued a 21-hour yellow wind alert on Sunday from 3am until midnight for Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of North West England and West Wales
There is ‘a good chance’ of power cuts in that area which could affect mobile phone coverage and buildings will probably be damaged, such as by tiles blowing off roofs.
Storm Ashley began to form on Friday night in the Atlantic off the coast of Canada.
But it is set to rapidly deepen on Saturday night and interact with an extremely strong jet stream and undergo ‘explosive cyclogenesis’.
This is where central pressure drops at least 24 millibars in 24 hours, which is also referred to as a ‘weather bomb’.
Disruption or cancellations to road, rail, air and ferry services are likely, as well as road and bridge closures.
Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern said on Friday evening: ‘At the time of recording, Storm Ashley is on the other side of the Atlantic and a relatively shallow area of low pressure.
‘It deepens rapidly as it gets picked up by the jet stream during Saturday and ends up as a particularly deep area of low pressure, with a widespread swathe of gales and wind gusts in excess of 60mph for many western and northern parts of the country.’
Clouds will thicken and wind will strengthen in the early hours of Sunday, and outbreaks of rain will hit Northern Ireland and the west of the UK, he said.
That rain will be heavy at times and accompanied by gales as the strong winds start, he added.
Western parts of the UK could wake up to 50mph to 60mph winds and heavy rain that day, particularly affecting exposed coasts and hills.
Sunday’s strongest winds will sweep exposed parts of Northern Ireland and western Scotland, with 70mph gusts likely.
They could reach 80mph ‘or perhaps a fraction more’ in parts of western Scotland, Mr McGivern added.
YELLOW WARNING 2: A further yellow warning is in place for Monday from midnight until 9am
Storm Ashley will form by explosive cyclogenesis in the Atlantic Ocean
The low pressure system will hit Britain on Sunday morning, bringing strong winds to Scotland
He said: ‘Those kinds of wind gusts could cause considerable disruption, damage to buildings, transport disruptions of the ferry crossings, for example.
‘And also the risk to coastal communities of flooding because these winds coincide with high tides, so that risk is especially great.’
He added that the winds will continue through Sunday and peak in the evening. Storm Ashley is expected to clear on Monday.
Transport Scotland has warned of likely disruptions to public transport, including the country’s ferry network.
A statement said: ‘A windy period is expected across the whole of the UK on Sunday and into Monday, but across parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland, north-west England and north-west Wales there is an increased chance of some disruption.
‘These strong winds in conjunction with high spring tides may cause some disruption.’
Families travelling during the October school holidays have been advised to check for cancellations.
Head of transport resilience at Transport Scotland, Ashleigh Robson, said: ‘Storm Ashley will likely mean travel disruption on Sunday.
‘With many families enjoying the October school holidays, we would advise them to pay close attention to any cross-border travel updates too.
The winds also coincide with high spring tides which brings a risk of large waves potentially smashing over flood defences. (Waves at high tide in Tramore in County Waterford during Storm Agnes)
Most of the UK will experience strong winds on Sunday but the north and the west of the country will be worst hit. (People walking in wet and windy conditions near Tower Bridge, London as storm Lilian hits the UK in 2023)
‘The multi-agency response team will be in position to advise the public, as the storm sweeps into Scotland.
Strong winds may cause particular difficulties for HGVs. Debris and treefall is a strong possibility. Rain will make visibility difficult and could result in flooding.
‘Disruption on ferry services is very likely, rail services and some flights will also be impacted. The decision to cancel is never taken lightly, but safety of passengers has to be the priority. Please plan ahead. The latest information on the trunk road network is available at www.traffic.gov.scot.’
Chief Superintendent Hilary Sloan, Police Scotland’s head of road policing, said: ‘The amber warning for high winds means a strong likelihood of disruption and, as such, motorists are advised to plan ahead and avoid unnecessary travel.
‘If you are travelling, make sure your vehicle has sufficient fuel and is completely roadworthy. Ensure your mobile phone is fully charged and take additional clothing and water with you.
‘Please do not ignore any road signage advising of changes to speed or closures to routes.’
Most of the UK will experience strong winds on Sunday but the north and the west of the country will be worst hit.
Although Storm Ashley will clear to the north of Britain by Monday morning, there will still be strong winds going into next week.