England are left on the point of sequence defeat as Pakistan’s spin twins twist the knife to place hosts accountable for third Test

Brendon McCullum insisted before this series that England’s 3-0 win in Pakistan two years ago was an ‘outlier’. As his team’s fortunes unravelled on the second day of this deciding Test, those words assumed a grimly prophetic quality.

When three quick wickets for Rehan Ahmed before lunch reduced the Pakistanis to 177 for seven, still 90 adrift on a pitch apparently destined to deteriorate, England were in control and eyeing up a win that would preserve their record of never losing a three-Test series after going 1-0 up.

Instead they ran into Saud Shakeel, who compiled a superbly patient century, and the tailend antics of Noman Ali and Sajid Khan, who have loomed over England like bogeymen – with ball and bat – ever since their recall for the second Test in Multan.

First, they helped Shakeel add 167 for the last three wickets as Ben Stokes’s Midas touch deserted him in the field.

Then, with England facing a first-innings deficit of 77, Sajid overturned umpire Sharfuddoula’s lbw decision against Ben Duckett, the one member of the top six who had made any headway on the opening day. It felt like a critical moment, for the Test and the series.

Five balls later, not to be outdone, Noman pinned Zak Crawley – a diminished player against spin – in front of middle and leg to make it 15 for two. And it was 20 for three when Ollie Pope aimed a characteristic jab at Noman and was caught at slip for a single by a jubilant Salman Agha.

Pope trudged off with a series batting average of 11, and the sense that, whatever it is he offers this team, it is not regular runs at No 3. England keep insisting his struggles are not an issue, but a total of 102 from 11 innings either side of his 154 against Sri Lanka at The Oval begs to differ. Yes, he can go big – but that’s if he ever gets going.

Fading light spared England 17 more minutes of torment at the hands of Pakistan’s spinners, but when Joe Root and Harry Brook walked off with the scoreboard reading 24 for three, the two Yorkshiremen lacked the usual spring in their step. This was a dispiriting day for their side, however much optimism courses through the dressing-room.

The change in mood was all the more galling because England had bossed the first session, elongated by half an hour because of Friday prayers. Shoaib Bashir had Shan Masood well caught by Pope at second slip for 26, before three wickets in five overs before lunch for Ahmed swung the pendulum their way.

Mohammad Rizwan and Agha were both lbw, and Aamir Jamal bowled by a googly that bounced into the ground from his defensive shot, then back on to the stumps.

Shakeel, though, was adapting his game in a manner that had proved beyond England on the first day, at least until Jamie Smith and Gus Atkinson aimed down the ground rather than square of the wicket.

Dropped early on by Smith on 26 off Bashir, a tough chance that cannoned off the wicketkeeper’s left shin before he could react, Shakeel set about making England pay in his own quiet way. With little recourse to the sweep, he moved from 50 to 100 with 44 singles and three twos, a masterclass in unfussy accumulation that almost mocked his opponents’ cross-bat swipes.

Noman was just as solid, blunting England in a stand of 88 that took Pakistan into the lead, before he missed a hoick at Bashir and was leg-before for 45 in the last over before tea.

England’s respite was fleeting. Sajid boldly went where Noman had gone before, mowing Bashir for three sixes as 43 runs came from three overs of mayhem. Pakistan’s off-spinner has been a force of nature in this series. Now, his run-a-ball unbeaten 48 felt like the innings that broke English spirits.

For once, Stokes seemed to be chasing the game. He didn’t resume after lunch with the upbeat Ahmed, ignored Atkinson for 26 overs, and didn’t use himself at all. England insisted there was no concern over his fitness, but he let the game drift, and appeared powerless to prevent the stream of singles.

Last week, Stokes apologised to his team-mates for losing his cool as England’s fielding disintegrated in Multan. This time, he felt strangely passive.

When he did recall Atkinson, Shakeel was immediately caught in two minds against the short ball, spooning a simple catch to midwicket for 134. Ahmed bowled Zahid Mahmood first ball with a well-aimed googly, but the damage had been done. The force was with Pakistan.

A grinning Ahmed, whose our for 66 compared favourably with Jack Leach and Bashir’s combined four for 234 , later claimed the mood was ‘still quite positive, there’s so much batting to come’. But England are going to have to bat out of their skins to set Pakistan the kind of total – 200 at least – that will cause home jitters.

Last week in Multan, circumstances conspired against England: condemned to bat last on a reused pitch, they were always up against it.

This time, there are fewer excuses, even on a surface made to order for Pakistan’s spinners. England won the toss, then – with the exception of Duckett – batted poorly in the first session, as if determined to confirm the old stereotypes about playing spin in Asia.

And while Shakeel was showing them how it was done, and Noman and Sajid were having their fun, England looked as impotent as they have at any time under McCullum. Defeat here would be the worst series result of his tenure. As the sun set over Rawalpindi, the Bazballers were quietly praying for another miracle.