CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten on Wednesday suggested “the signs all along will have been obvious” if former President Donald Trump wins the 2024 election.
Enten cited voter satisfaction polls with the direction of the country, President Joe Biden’s current poor approval rating and Republican registration numbers as key factors that could, in hindsight, be used to explain a Trump victory.
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Incumbent parties since 1980 have won reelection when approval ratings on where the country is headed are around 42%, said Enten. Losing incumbent parties average around 25%. The current average is 28%.
“I went back through history, there isn’t a single time in which 28% of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,” Enten explained.
Biden’s low approval rating also, per historical data, doesn’t spell good news for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, said Enten. And the “big, huge numbers” of new voters that Republicans are registering in battleground states Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania could also be a critical factor.
If Trump wins “the signs all along will have been obvious, we would look at the right direction being very low, Joe Biden’s approval rating being very low and Republicans really registering numbers,” he said.
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“You can’t say you weren’t warned,” he added.
Enten promised to deliver a similar analysis of the signs that could point to a Harris victory on Thursday.
Watch Enten’s analysis here: