Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll before Election Day, with the former president holding a three-point lead over the vice president.
Both candidates have shored up their bases, but Trump has done better at picking up support from independents and undecided voters in the final push, according to the data.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, which has margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows that Trump is trending up, with the support of 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent.
The race is still close. Yet, with five days to go, the numbers mean Trump is currently on course to become the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.
The vice president held a one-point lead when the poll was last conducted in September.
J.L. Partners polled 1000 likely voters from Oct 26 to 29. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 points, but put Donald Trump back in the lead after he fell behind
She enjoyed a two-month honeymoon after President Joe Biden announced he was ending his reelection campaign. Her poll numbers and fundraising surged amid a wave of enthusiasm.
But since then the race has tightened to become one of the closest in history.
James Johnson, co-founder of J.L. Partners said the poll was good news for Trump’s chances of winning the White House.
‘The movement under the surface suggests Trump is having a better closing moment in driving up enthusiasm than Harris is, and undecideds and third-party candidate supporters have also broken for Trump in the last month,’ he said.
‘He has also seen improvement among voters of every race, and leads in all age groups apart from 18–29-year-olds.’
The full results show third-party candidates making little headway.
Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and Libertarian Chase Oliver are all on just one percent.
Independent Cornel West’s share is rounded to zero percent.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Former President Donald Trump are locked in a tight race
Perhaps the starkest finding is the gender mismatch in the contest.
‘One thing makes this election stand out from others: When voters go to the polls next week, they will be sharply divided on their gender, with women being more likely to vote for Harris and men more likely to vote for Trump,’ said Johnson.
Harris can count on the support of 54 percent of women, while Trump has the backing of 40 percent.
Men break 59 to 37 for Trump.
After wobbles on both sides, the two candidates can now rely on their own party support. Harris is backed by 94 percent of Democrats; Trump is backed by 93 percent of Republicans.
And there is more good news for Trump as his campaign works to turn out the vote. Enthusiasm for the former president is higher (74 percent say they are very enthusiastic for him) than Harris (67).
A month ago, Harris led Trump by five points.
But all is not lost for Harris. Trump’s lead is powered by a 43-point advantage among rural voters. Harris remains on course to win the suburbs, where our poll shows she has a two-point lead.
Trump wore a waste collector’s high vis vest at his Wisconsin rally on Wednesday evening, as he tries to keep comments about his supporters being ‘garbage’ in the headlines
Johnson said that was a ‘ray of light’ for Harris.
‘That could mean Trump’s vote is now looking more inefficiently spread,’ he said. ‘Things could look much closer in the swing states if Harris can drive home her votes in suburban areas.’
Trump’s danger, he explained, was that he could be racking up high vote counts in red states, while the distribution of Harris supporters might help her win swing states.
The two candidates are now crisscrossing the states that will decide the outcome in the electoral college.
Both had struggled with negative headlines in the final week.
Trump launched his closing message on Sunday night at Madison Square Garden in New York, an event that was overshadowed by a comedian making disparaging remarks about Puerto Rico.
And Harris made her final pitch near the White House, but was upstaged by President Joe Biden apparently calling Trump supporters ‘garbage’ although his words were unclear.