Presidential election odds reside updates: Kamala Harris falls behind Trump in key swing state

Final polling in Pennsylvania shows Kamala Harris falling behind in the days before the 2024 presidential election.

With just five days until Election Day, multiple polls exhibit the vice president’s slip in the key battleground swing state with 19 Electoral College votes. Pennsylvania has voted for the person who won the presidential election in 48 of the last 59 elections.

The latest Fox News poll conducted October 24 and 28 has the former president with a one-pioint advantage over Harris in a head-to-head matchup.

And another survey conducted by Monmouth University in the same time period has Trump also a single point ahead of Harris among likely voters – 47 percent to 46 percent.

Both are within the respective polls’ margin of error.

Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in the final DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners national poll before Election Day, with the former president holding a three-point lead over the vice president.

Both candidates have shored up their bases, but Trump has done better at picking up support from independents and undecided voters in the final push, according to the data.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters shows that Trump has the support of 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent.

The race is still close. Yet, with five days to go, the numbers mean Trump is currently on course to become the first Republican candidate since George W. Bush in 2004 to win the popular vote.

The vice president held a one-point lead when the poll was last conducted in September.

Tucked away in the far northwest corner of country just before the cliffs drop off into the Pacific Ocean lies America’s last true bellwether county.

A decidedly purple place, the small, rural region of Clallam County in Washington boasts an unmatched record of voting for every presidential election winner since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

This is the longest success streak of any of America’s 3,143 counties.

Now all eyes are on this unassuming county once again to see which way the wind is blowing for 2024, as vice president Kamala Harris faces off against former president Donald Trump in a divisive, neck and neck race.

So far, the demographic outcome of early voting in North Carolina is a red flag to Kamala Harris’ chances in the red-leaning swing state.

The electorate in the state has skewed older and whiter compared to the voter registration in the state.

Some Democrats think for Vice President Kamala Harris to be competitive and flip the state in 2024, there needs to be a turnout of 20 perent black voters. As of Wednesday, black voters made up about 18 percent of the early voting electorate in North Carolina.

Turnout among this key demographic for Harris is lagging so far. In 2020 there were 36,000 more black Americans who had voted in-person by this point.

Early voter data shows that women and suburban voters are so far outperfromaing the other demographics in North Carolina.

Voters cast their ballots in early voting in Black Mountain, North Carolina on October 29, 2024 – one month after Hurricane Helene hit the area

Steve Bannon has advice for Donald Trump on how to win the election: Keep doing your thing, be yourself and make sure outside groups maintain a fierce focus on getting out the vote.

‘I would tell President Trump, continue, do your rallies,’ he told DailyMail.com in an interview.

‘Do what you do. Just be yourself. You’re authentic.

‘Just be yourself, and let your staff and let these outside groups just really power through the next six, seven days and get as many people to vote by and on November 5.’

He has had four months to think about strategy, cooped up in federal prison where he was serving a sentence for two counts of contempt of Congress.

A top election data guru revealed a major sign that former President Donald Trump could win the presidential election next week.

CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten said a key metric going into the election in six days is the low number of voters who feel the country is on the ‘right track.’

Just 28 percent of Americans in an aggregate of recent polls believe that the country is going in the right direction.

That’s a significant hurdle for Vice President Kamala Harris to overcome, Enten told CNN anchor John Berman and Kate Bolduan.

‘There isn’t a single time in which 28 percent of the American public thinks the country is going on the right track in which the incumbent party actually won,’ Enten said, citing every election since the 1980s.

‘The bottom line is if Republicans win come next week, Donald Trump wins come next week, the signs all along will have been obvious,’ he said.

Polling guru Nate Silver’s forecasting model has Donald Trump with a 55 percent chance of wining the election, and Kamala Harris 45 percent.

But Silver notes there have been ‘pretty bad’ polls for two election cycles in a row.

He told a CNBC event Trump voters might be more ‘charged’ this time, and therefore more likely to answer in polls. He said:

A lot of pollsters are throwing up their hands. They’re printing a tie. There is what we call herding, where people are gravitating towards the consensus. They don’t want opinions too out of line.

Swing state of Michigan remains a toss-up just five days before the 2024 presidential election.

Among registered voters, Trump takes an advantage with 47 percent to Harris’ 45 percent. But among likely voters, the scales are tipped the other way with 47 percent for the vice president and 46 percent backing the former president.

Both results are within the poll’s margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

Michigan, with 15 Electoral College votes, joins Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as the states that will determine the outcome of the presidential election.

Former President Bill Clinton and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer campaign for Kamala Harris at Christ Temple Apostolic Faith Church in Muskegon Heights, Michigan on October 30, 2024

A Republican strategist revealed that internal polling has arrived and operatives inside President Donald Trump’s campaign are concerned they ‘aren’t where they need to be.’

Margaret Hoover appeared on CNN’s The Source Wednesday and told host Kaitlan Collins that early voting numbers point to ‘real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure.’

‘I think their internals are actually giving them pause,’ said Hoover, who worked on George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign and Rudy Giuliani’s failed 2008 run for the White House.

‘They do have a lot of resources for polling – more than public media companies have. And they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there’s real groundswell in the early vote,’ she added.

A higher number of registered Democrats, over 11 million, have voted so far, compared to 10.5 million registered Republicans, according to data from 25 states that report party registration.

But the New York Democrat glossed those allegations over – despite Emhoff’s people confirming his affair with the nanny – to gush to a crowd of students at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas that he was the ideal modern male.

The House COVID Select Committee told DailyMail.com:

Overwhelming evidence uncovered by the Select Subcommittee proves that Mr. Cuomo reviewed, edited, and even drafted portions of a purportedly independent and peer-reviewed New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) Report that was used to combat criticism of his Administration’s pandemic-era nursing home policies.

The Select Subcommittee recommends the DOJ review the evidence laid out in the criminal referral and immediately evaluate criminal charges against Mr. Cuomo.

The screen is dark, illuminated briefly by the word ‘ inflation ‘ and a display of numbers ticking upwards.

It cuts to a dark night, as a police officer shines a flashlight and a dark figure runs through the streets as part of what the narrator calls a ‘pandemic of lawlessness.’

Allies of former President Donald Trump are launching an ‘American nightmare’ ad to coincide with Halloween on Thursday.

The sound of Kamala Harris’ laughter echoes through scenes of a dystopian country, grappling with rising prices , crime and risk of war with Iran .

Only at the end does a character emerge panting into daylight in front of a neat-lawned family home.

Donald Trump holds a comfortable lead over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election betting markets with five days left of the campaign.

The Real Clear Politics average of betting platforms has the Republican nominee 26.8 points ahead.

UK bookmaker Betfair gives Trump a 25-point advantage in his chances of winning while BetOnline has him 28 points up.

While the gap between Trump and Harris may be sizeable, anything can happen in the final stretch of the campaign.

American platform Kalshi has seen Harris’ odds improve five percent in the last 24 hours.

Donald Trump trolled Joe Biden and Kamala Harris by riding a MAGA garbage truck to his rally in Wisconsin on Wednesday night in response to Biden’s comments that upended the presidential race with a week to go.

The former president rolled up to reporters on the tarmac in Green Bay, leaning out the window to take questions before his event in the battleground which is one of the seven states that will decide the election.

Trump and Harris are locked in a statistical tie in Wisconsin, and nationwide they are separated by by razor-thin margins as one of the closet campaigns in history draws to a close.

‘How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden,’ he told the waiting media while wearing an orange workman’s vest.

‘For Joe Biden to make that statement — it’s really a disgrace,’ he added before speaking to supporters while Harris addressed her own fans in a different part of the state.

Trump was referring to the comments made by 81-year-old Biden that referred to his supporters as ‘garbage.’