The battle to succeed Rishi Sunak will finally come to an end today after months of blue-on-blue mud-slinging against a backdrop of public indifference.
Tory MPs baffled everyone by picking two darlings of the party’s right to go head-to-head, despite previous frontrunner James Cleverly’s plea for them to “be more normal”. Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch have rewarded them by spending the past fortnight raising questions about the other’s suitability to lead.
In a delicious helping of Tory infighting, Mr Jenrick aimed a barbed dig at Ms Badenoch by saying he wouldn’t bring needless drama to the role. But she brutally swiped back that at least she’d never been sacked. The contest started way back on July 5 when Mr Sunak announced he was stepping down, with Mr Cleverly, Dame Priti Patel, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat all previously cast aside. Whichever of the two does take over will need to find a way of uniting a deeply-divided party. after a crushing general election defeat. The winner – picked by the same party members who inflicted Liz Truss on the country – will be announced at around 11am on Saturday.
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Why did Jenrick make the ‘needless drama’ jibe?
Ms Badenoch isn’t frightened to ruffle feathers, and this has seen her get involved in a number of high-profile spats. She faced calls to resign in 2021 after targeting a journalist on Twitter, calling her “creepy and bizarre” for asking legitimate questions. More recently Ms Badenoch was embroiled in a very public row with former Post Office chairman Henry Staunton.
Mr Staunton claimed to have been told by a civil servant to slow down compensation for Horizon scandal victims. In an astonishing intervention Ms Badenoch, then Business Secretary, gave a statement to the Commons branding it a “blatant attempt to seek revenge” for being sacked. She went on to claim he was dismissed over “serious matters such as bullying” – a claim he branded “astonishing”.
She also lashed out at Dr Who star David Tennant after he said she should “shut up” during an awards speech. Mr Jenrick capitalised by saying the Tories need a leader who doesn’t get “drawn down rabbit holes” or spend time doing “battle on Twitter“. He told an audience the parties need “a serious plan, not needless drama”.
Badenoch then questioned Jenrick’s integrity
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Ms Badenoch took a brutal swipe at her rival, saying “I’ve never been sacked”. She claimed party members “don’t want someone who was sacked, who had impropriety, ministerial code issues and so on”. Mr Jenrick was embroiled in controversy in 2020 after approving a huge property development put forward by Tory donor Richard Desmond. It later emerged Mr Desmond had lobbied him at a fundrasing event. Mr Jenrick’s decision would have saved the businessman around £40million – as it was made before a rise in council community charges.
Mr Jenrick didn’t contest a judicial review that said his actions were unlawful, and he was kicked out by Boris Johnson during a reshuffle the following year. Ms Badenoch said party members “know I have integrity” and said there would be “no scandal” if she was party leader.
But… didn’t Badenoch hack another MP’s website?
After becoming an MP, Ms Badenoch made the surprise confession that she’d once hacked the website of Labour’s Harriet Harman and added a picture of Boris Johnson. It happened in 2008, long before she got into Parliament. She admitted to it in an interview years later when asked what the naughtiest thing she’d ever done was.
Last week Ms Badenoch claimed that doing so proved she had integrity. She told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge: “It was a summary offence at the time, the same as a speeding ticket. It was actually something quite different from what the law is now. “But also that in itself is an example of how I have integrity. No one knew about that, Sophy. I came out and said this.”
Have they argued about policy at all?
Kinda, but not in the way you’d expect. In most leadership contests you’d anticipate both sides would spell out the key things they plan to do if they won. And in fairness to Mr Jenrick, he has told anyone who will listen – and probably a few who won’t – that he’d drag the UK out of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). His fixation with the measure has been the overriding takeaway from a pretty drab contest. But Ms Badenoch is all about vibes, saying there’s loads of time to sort out specific policies. It’s really annoyed Mr Jenrick, who moaned: “(Members) don’t want vague promises of policy commissions which will report back in months or years to come. They want action now.”
So what’s all this about maternity pay?
One of the defining moments of the Tory Party Conference was Ms Badenoch appearing to go to war over maternity pay being too high. In an interview with Times Radio, she was repeatedly asked to claify her views. She later claimed she didn’t think maternity pay was too high at all, raising questions about her communication skills.
Ms Badenoch described statutory maternity pay as “a function of tax”, and said: “Tax comes from people who are working – we’re taking from one group of people and giving to another. This, in my view, is excessive.” She later claimed not to have rallied against maternity pay at all. She wrote: “Contrary to what some have said, I clearly said the burden of regulation on businesses had gone too far… of course I believe in maternity pay!”
Jenrick’s shameful soldier stunt
In another low point of the leadership race, Mr Jenrick was accused of using footage of a dead soldier to make a misleading claim about SAS troops killing terror suspects rather than capturing them. Tom Tugendhat, who served with the Special Forces trooper, could barely conceal his rage as he described Mr Jenrick’s allegation as “simply not true”.
Tory leadership hopeful Mr Jenrick faces calls to apologise and withdraw his claim. He has been accused of putting lives in danger after making the extraordinary allegation in a social media video. Mr Tugendhat, who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, made clear he was furious the video of his deceased friend had been used. BBC Newsnight presenter Victoria Derbyshire told him: “You sound quietly furious.”
Mr Tugendhat said: “How would you feel if a friend of yours who died a few years after the film was taken was being included in an accusation that would be – were he to be responsible for it, which let me be absolutely clear he would not and did not do – in an accusation that would be against the values and standards of the Armed Forces?”
How right-wing is Jenrick?
Well, he’s been on quite the journey. He was installed as Immigration Minister by Rishi Sunak, supposedly to keep hardliner Suella Braverman in check. But during his time in the Home Office he moved progressively to the right. He’s made a big play about appearing tough on immigration. It went so far, in fact, that he ordered cartoon murals were painted over at a processing centre in Dover because he thought they were too welcoming.
That sparked a huge backlash and accusations of performative cruelty. But despite this many on the hard-right aren’t convinced he’s one of them. In a blistering takedown, Nigel Farage said Mr Jenrick is presenting himself as a hardliner “for political gain and not out of conviction”.
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Who’s going to win?
If a recent survey by Conservative Home is anything to go by, Ms Badenoch has the leadership in the bag. It suggested she has the support of 55%, compared to Mr Jenrick’s 33%. Just 14% are undecided. There have been reports that unenthusiastic members haven’t bothered to cast a vote, with turnout claimed to be a lot lower than previous races.
Following Conservative Home’s results, based on a survey of 828 party members, he was asked if it was all over for him. Mr Jenrick responded: “Absolutely not. This is neck and neck. “That’s a survey, not a poll. The last poll that we had was done by YouGov several weeks ago, and showed it was absolutely neck and neck, the tightest leadership race that we’ve had for many years. There’s everything to fight for and I’m certainly going off around the country, as I have throughout the summer, and I think my message is resonating with members and with the public that we need to learn our lessons.”
What can we expect from a Badenoch-led Tory Party?
While she’s light on policy, we know we can expect a lurch further to the right. She will have to convince Reform UK voters to come back to the Tory fold at the next election – but risks alienating those in the centre. Launching her second leadership bid in two years, she argued the party had “talked right but governed left”. She said she favours a smaller state with government doing “fewer things” but doing them with “brilliance”. She went on to provoke a backlash with an article stating that “not all cultures are equally valid”.