Donald Trump asserts that he will negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine ‘on Day One’ of his presidency in January next year.
The incoming Leader of the Free World is known for his tough talk and uncompromising approach. It’s likely he will demand urgent peace talks as soon as he returns to the White House, but implementing an immediate ceasefire will be an immense challenge.
Yet President Trump is determined to strike a deal and I believe he could be our best hope of averting World War III.
The past four years have been catastrophic for global stability. As American influence declined under Joe Biden’s sclerotic administration, we’ve seen a succession of threats emerge in response to U.S. weakness.
In Afghanistan, the chaotic and rushed withdrawal of Allied forces allowed the Taliban to surge back, despite all the promises made by Western leaders. Biden’s lack of leadership in this arena proved an utter humiliation for the United States.
It sent a clear signal to Beijing’s Communists that they could expand aggressively, without facing US opposition. The message was heard even more clearly in Moscow, where Vladimir Putin calculated that if Russia invaded Ukraine, America might protest but there would be no full-scale war with Nato. It’s highly unlikely that Russia would have dared march on Kyiv in 2022 if Trump had been in power.
Putin did not count on the doggedness of Ukrainian resistance, of course, nor the way that Britain under Boris Johnson would rally European opposition to Putin’s so-called ‘special operation’. But the Kremlin dictator was correct in his estimation of Biden’s lack of resolve.
In Tehran, the ayatollahs saw that, too. Iran’s military rise, using proxy armies in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and Yemen, has been blatant, as has its pursuit of a nuclear weapon.
Donald Trump is known for his tough talk and uncompromising approach. He is determined to strike a deal and I believe he could be our best hope of averting World War III, writes NILE GARDINER
As American influence declined under Joe Biden ’s sclerotic administration, we’ve seen a succession of threats emerge in response to U.S. weakness
All eyes are currently on Putin and his willingness to use intercontinental nuclear-capable ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
But an even greater imminent danger of all-out nuclear war will threaten the world if Ali Khamenei and his mullahs succeed in building an atomic device with a working detonator. Such is their fanaticism, it is not unlikely that they would be prepared to use it against Israel.
Trump understands all this, and he recognises that the U.S. is the only superpower on Earth with the clout to prevent it. He would not have allowed Iran to become the international bully-boy state it is today, just as he slapped down North Korea when Kim Jong-Un (the man Trump dubbed ‘little rocket man’) began test firing missiles in the direction of America.
It’s unlikely, too, that Hamas would have staged the sickening October 7 atrocities last year, if Biden had not been in power. The Gaza terrorists took advantage of US weakness, with horrific consequences for all.
This combination of disasters has left the planet on the verge of an all-consuming conflagration. Right now, Biden’s extremely high-risk decision to allow U.S.-made long-range weapons to be fired into Russia by Ukraine’s defenders has been met with a new wave of Russian aggression.
These ATACM (pronounced ‘Attack-em’) missiles have been used on targets deep behind Russian lines. But they have failed to strike a decisive blow.
And the immediate result has been to give Putin exactly the excuse he wanted to test his own latest long-range missiles, the hypersonic Rubezh weapon.
One exploded over the city of Dnipro last Thursday, fired from the remote Russian region of Astrakhan more than 400 miles away and covering that distance in just 10 minutes, according to the news agency Reuters.
Biden’s extremely high-risk decision to allow U.S.-made long-range weapons to be fired into Russia by Ukraine’s defenders has been met with a new wave of Russian aggression – and provided Vladimir Putin with the excuse he wanted to test his own latest long-range missiles
This time, the payload was conventional high explosives. But the Rubezh is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead more than 2,000 miles. Fired from this side of the Urals, it could hit London, Berlin or Paris within minutes. The result would be obliteration and millions of deaths – as well as certain nuclear retaliation by Nato.
Putin might also feel emboldened in striking the Ukraine military supply chain, for example by hitting a depot beyond the Polish border with a ballistic missile. If that happened, how would Nato react?
One thing is certain – the current leadership vacuum in Washington under the Biden administration would dither and endanger us all.
What advantage Biden saw in using ATACM missiles so late in the day is difficult to fathom. They are unlikely to be a game-changer and have without doubt created a more dangerous situation for Trump to inherit.
The truth is that throughout the Ukraine war we’ve seen little real strategic thinking from Biden and his advisors. It is a bumbling, clueless administration.
Putin knows this and is strengthened by it. He sees Trump as a far more effective and powerful adversary, particularly now the returning President has an emphatic mandate from voters – with a majority in the Senate and the House, and all serious threats of legal action against him likely to evaporate.
Trump’s first move towards peace could well be the re-imposition of restrictions on the use of US weapons beyond Ukraine’s borders. Ukraine’s leader Volodymyr Zelensky is well aware of this, and will likely adjust his own battle plans accordingly.
A decision by the US to withdraw permission for using ATACMs does not automatically mean Britain and France will follow suit and suspend use of Storm Shadow missiles. But the pressure will be on the UK and European allies to back the US strategy.
Ukrainian service members perform drills in military exercises at a training ground. Tragic though it is, Ukraine faces a very daunting task in winning all the territory back that it has lost to Russia since 2014
It’s essential for future peace that Putin cannot be allowed to annex more of Ukraine, and Trump is only too well aware of how the Kursk region of Russia, where Kyiv has made a significant incursion, can be used by Zelensky as a bargaining chip in any peace deal.
But it is also essential that the war doesn’t keep dragging on. Tragic though it is, Ukraine faces a very daunting task in winning all the territory back that it has lost to Russia since 2014 – even President Zelensky concedes that occupied Crimea cannot be taken back through force of arms.
And the longer the war continues, the more it escalates, endangering the world, pushing Europe ever closer to all-encompassing conflict and soaking up US resources that are desperately needed in other theatres such as the Middle East and the Pacific, where we face an ever-more belligerent China.
Putin respects no one, but he recognises the difference between strength and weakness. So does Trump – and he will be aware that the best way to weaken Putin will be to restore peace. This might be painful for Ukraine in the short term, but it will leave Moscow with a long-term problem.
Russia’s economy is now completely dependent on war. If the fighting stops, so does weapons production, leading to massive unemployment and recession. Putin’s best hope of restoring financial stability will be for the West to raise sanctions.
That leaves Trump with all the power. Instead of lifting sanctions, he could threaten to impose even more. There’s plenty of scope for the West to tighten its stranglehold on Moscow.
Many of Europe’s leaders oppose Trump ideologically, but there’s no doubt he knows how to seal a deal to his advantage, and to America’s, which will ultimately benefit the whole planet.
– Nile Gardiner is a former aide to Margaret Thatcher