Black Friday began today with Britons are set to spend more than £3billion today – but there was little evidence of it on high streets and shopping centres.
Few shoppers were seen queueing outside superstores in London and other cities today despite spending expected to be up 6 per cent on last year.
It was a low-key start at the Tesco superstore in Kingston Park, Newcastle, where three customers turned up for it opening at 6am this morning – in contrast to previous years when queues lined up outside with customers desperate to grab bargains.
But consumers are expected to defy the cost-of-living crisis by spending £3.33million every minute today as they stock up on discounted Christmas presents.
The majority of shoppers will stay at home with £1.92billion of today’s total to be spent online, up 3 per cent on last year. Offline sales will rise 10 per cent to £1.26billion – giving a total of £3.18billion, according to research by VoucherCodes .
Analysts believe that today by itself is set to just miss out on being a Black Friday record-breaker, with the 2021 sales total slightly higher at £3.20billion.
But it could be the biggest four-day weekend ever with a total spend of £9.14billion from Black Friday through to Cyber Monday – up 5 per cent on last year.
Financial commentator Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said a combination of the minimum wage increase, being close to payday and a slight rise in confidence in personal finances should see spend increase.
She told MailOnline: ‘We’re deep in the golden quarter for retail with Christmas sales crucial for so many stores but Black Friday is a mixed blessing.
Tesco at Kingston Park in Newcastle is pictured on Black Friday today (left) and in 2018 (right)
Six shoppers queue up outside the Disney Store on London’s Oxford Street this morning
Oxford Street in London is very quiet at 7.30am this morning despite it being Black Friday
Only a handful of shoppers are seen outside JD Sports on Oxford Street in London today
A low-key start to Black Friday sales at the Tesco store in Kingston Park, Newcastle, today
Oxford Street in London is very quiet at 7.30am this morning despite it being Black Friday
The Tesco store in Kingston Park, Newcastle, is virtually empty after opening at 6am today
‘It provokes such shopping mania in the quest for a good deal that around three quarters of people will actually put off spending in the run up to the event.
‘During the promotional period it also means selling at a discount, with means a smaller profit margin at a time when they are being squeezed by rising staff costs.
‘It also puts pressure on their distribution chains, which can cause problems for their reputation in they run into difficulties.’
Ms Streeter added that it ‘looks likely’ that consumer spend will surpass last year’s totals, given that this year is ‘so close to payday’.
She continued: ‘Consumer confidence may still be in negative territory with worries reverberating about the economy, but optimism about personal finances has increased this month, which may also translate into higher sales.’
Ms Streeter cited Dunelm as one ‘of the retailers offering Black Friday promotions which is positive about spending prospects ahead’.
She added: ‘There is hope that the increase in the minimum wage will give consumers more incentive to splash the cash, helping the tills ring more merrily in the run-up to Christmas.’
Another retail expert said it was important to note that Black Friday falls later than in recent years. The 2024 event today is five days after November 24 in 2023, four days after November 25 in 2022 and three days after November 26 in 2021.
Jonathan De Mello, founder and chief executive of JDM Retail, told MailOnline: ‘With Black Friday falling much later this year, it is likely that Black Friday 2024 will serve a dual purpose.
‘Some will see it as an opportunity to bag heavily discounted products for themselves, and some will take the opportunity to buy early Christmas presents for loved ones.
‘With inflation under control and a more stable consumer demand backdrop, it is likely that consumer spending this Black Friday will outstrip prior years on a like for like basis.’
He added that Black Friday had long ceased to be a ‘one-day phenomenon’, and was now ‘spread across multiple days and even weeks, and it has become an essential time for retailers and shoppers – with many shoppers saving up to benefit from the discounts on offer during the Black Friday period’.
But Mr De Mello also warned: ‘With retailer profit margins still relatively thin following a prolonged period of cost increases across their supply chains – and with National Insurance cost headwinds to come next year, it is unlikely that the discounts on offer will be as deep as prior years.’
The VoucherCodes study said shoppers would have more money to buy gifts for themselves and others this year, expecting a 5.6 per cent rise in Black Friday spending on the £3.01billion in 2023.
The overall Black Friday weekend spend is expected to be up 4.5 per cent on last year’s £8.74billion.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | £2.44 | £2.53 | £2.78 | £3.20 | £3.01 | £3.01 | £3.18 |
| Saturday & Sunday | £2.88 | £3.00 | £2.31 | £2.29 | £2.53 | £2.39 | £2.63 |
| Monday | £2.96 | £3.04 | £2.86 | £3.15 | £3.17 | £3.34 | £3.33 |
| TOTAL | £7.78 | £8.57 | £7.95 | £8.64 | £8.71 | £8.74 | £9.14 |
| Data in £billions, provided by VoucherCodes. The * denotes forecast for the year. Data for all other years is actual total | |||||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friday | +10.1% | 14.9% | -5.8% | -0.2% | +5.6% |
| Saturday & Sunday | -23.2% | -0.7% | +10.4% | -5.5% | +10.2% |
| Monday | -5.8% | +10.2% | +0.3% | +5.6% | -0.5% |
| TOTAL | -7.2% | +8.7% | +0.8% | +0.4% | +4.5% |
| Data provided by VoucherCodes. The * denotes forecast for the year. Data for all other years is actual total | |||||
Spending is expected to peak over the four-day weekend on Cyber Monday at £3.33billion, but this would be down 0.5 per cent on last year’s figure for the day.
However, spending across the Saturday and Sunday combined of £2.63billion will be up 10.2 per cent on last year.
A total of £23.70billion is expected to be spent over the two-week Black Friday period from November 22 to December 6, up 4.5 per cent on last year.
The firm also reported that 38 per cent of consumers said they planned to spend more in the sales this year than last year.
VoucherCodes savings expert Anita Naik urged consumers to shop around to find the cheapest price, given the ‘first deal you find isn’t always the best, so check you can’t get the item cheaper elsewhere’.
She added: ‘Make sure you’re only buying items you actually want and need. It’s easy to get carried away in the Black Friday frenzy but it’s only a good deal if it’s something you need – and never spend more than you can afford.’
Clothing and footwear are expected to be the most popular purchases, ahead of toys and electricals.
Earlier this week, a snapshot study by Which? suggested nine out of ten Black Friday deals last year were cheaper or the same price over the previous 12 months.
Shop prices are now 0.6% cheaper than a year ago, but have risen from October’s 0.8% cheaper than a year earlier – the first time in 17 months that inflation has been higher than the previous month, according to the latest British Retail Consortium (BRC)-NielsenIQ Shop Price Index
The watchdog warned shoppers that the ‘vast majority’ of so-called offers were ‘misleading’.
The consumer group looked at deals on 227 products in last year’s Black Friday fortnight between November 20 and December 1, finding that 92 per cent of them, all from eight of the biggest home and technology retailers, were the same price or cheaper at other times of the year.
For six in ten deals, the higher ‘was’ price had been in place less than half the time the product was available in the year before the promotion, suggesting it was common for the product to be discounted.
It also found 14 ‘deals’ where the higher price had not been charged once by that retailer in the previous 12 months.
Also this week, it was revealed that a 17-month run of falling shop inflation ended in November, amid warnings that higher costs for retailers will ‘inevitably’ lead to rising prices for consumers.
Overall, shop prices are now 0.6 per cent cheaper than a year ago, but have risen from October’s 0.8 per cent cheaper than a year earlier – the first time in 17 months that inflation has been higher than the previous month, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-NielsenIQ Shop Price Index.
Retail sales volumes, which measure the quantity bought, decreased by 0.7% in October, the Office for National Statistics has said – after retailers witnessed 0.1% growth in September
However figures showed significant bargains remained in place across fashion, furniture and electricals in early Black Friday sales.
Separate official data released last week showed British retailers saw sales fall last month on the back of uncertainty before the autumn Budget.
Clothing stores had a particularly weak month, with industry data suggesting mild October weather may have caused shoppers to hold off buying more warm winter clothing.
Retail sales volumes, which measure the quantity bought, decreased by 0.7 per cent in October, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
It comes after retailers witnessed 0.1 per cent growth in September. This was revised down from a previous estimate of 0.3 per cent.
Growth from Knowledge’s (GfK) long-running consumer confidence index rose by three points this month, although it remains firmly in negative territory at minus 18.
The fall in October was heavier than expected, with economists having predicted a 0.3 per cent decline.
Retailers have warned that they will face a £7billion jump in their costs because of a raft of policy measures from the Chancellor’s Budget.
Retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Marks & Spencer signed a letter to Rachel Reeves warning that job losses were ‘inevitable’ and prices would increase, because of a number of policy measures including a rise in business national insurance payments.
But consumer confidence improved in November amid signs shoppers are ready to put political upheaval behind them to spend again on Black Friday and Christmas.
Growth from Knowledge’s (GfK) long-running consumer confidence index rose by three points this month, although it remains firmly in negative territory at minus 18.
The improvement was driven by a jump in intentions to make major purchases – an indicator of confidence in buying big-ticket items – by five points to minus 16.