Three major events in tight race, in accordance with Irish…

Sinn Fein, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are virtually neck-and-neck in terms of first preference votes in the Irish General Election, according to an exit poll.

The Ipsos B&A Exit Poll was commissioned by RTE, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin suggests Sinn Fein have picked up 21.1 per cent of the vote – with  Fine Gael on 21 per cent and Fianna Fail just behind on 19.5 per cent. 

It puts the two largest parties in the current coalition, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, on a combined 40.5 per cent. .

While the exit poll is indicative of the support base for the political parties, the final results will be determined by transfer votes – a key part of Ireland’s complex electoral system of proportional representation with a single transferable vote.

The inconclusive results mean that all eyes will now turn to the potential search for coalition partners.

Elsewhere, the exit poll showed: Social Democrats (5.8 per cent), Labour (five per cent), Greens (four per cent), Aontu (3.6 per cent), People Before Profit-Solidarity (3.1 per cent), and Independent Ireland (2.2 per cent). Independents and other candidates were on 14.6 per cent.

Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald, Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin and Fine Gael leader Simon Harris 

There is a margin of error of 1.4 per cent.

Sinn Fein’s director of elections Matt Carthy has celebrated his party’s performance.

He said it marked a significant turnaround from the party’s disappointing showing in June’s local and European elections.

‘When you consider where we would have been coming out of the local and European elections, I have to say it’s a phenomenal result,’ Mr Carthy told RTE.

He added: ‘We do recall that in 2020 the exit poll actually undershot Sinn Fein to the tune of two per cent-plus. So if that was to transpire tomorrow morning, there is every chance that Sinn Fein will emerge from these elections as the largest political party.’

Mr Carthy would not be drawn on what the exit poll might mean for coalition formation.

‘This is a hugely positive exit poll but the real votes will be counted tomorrow, so let’s see where they land,’ he said.

The results of the exit poll suggest the arithmetic to form a majority may prove tricky, with the country’s several smaller parties and many independents potentially jockeying for a place in government – possibly in a coalition made up of four parties.

The leaders of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have consistently ruled out entering into a future coalition with Sinn Fein, citing substantial differences on policy.

As such, Sinn Fein faces a much more challenging route to forming a government.

However, long-held and seemingly insurmountable political differences have eroded as recently as 2020 when the general election also delivered an inconclusive result.

It was in that instance that Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, two parties forged from opposing sides of Ireland’s Civil War of the 1920s, agreed to set aside almost a century of animosity and share power for the outgoing coalition – after similar pledges against forming coalitions had been made prior to the final results. The Greens joined the coalition as a junior partner.

In that election, Sinn Fein won the popular vote but a failure to run enough candidates meant it did not secure sufficient seats in the Dail to give it a realistic chance of forming a government.

This time around, party leader Mary Lou McDonald fielded many more candidates in a vow not to repeat past mistakes, as she urged voters to elect a government of change without Fine Gael or Fianna Fail.

How an election victory for Ireland’s first female PM could shake the foundations of the British Union 

by RORY FLEMING

It has been a year of seismic election results, from Donald Trump‘s historic reclaiming of the White House in the US to the UK electorate returning a first Labour government since 2010.

However, with just a few days remaining until December festivities subsume the rest of our year’s calendar, there is one more possible electoral sensation on the horizon.

Across the Irish Sea, Ireland’s electorate are into the candlelight hours of voting in their hugely consequential snap election.

Incumbent Prime Minister Simon Harris, who only assumed the role in April, called for a general election almost half-a-year early, feeling that a ‘new manager bounce’ of sorts could push his Fine Gael party over the top and secure a fourth successive term in power. 

Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald is out to disrupt this trend though and seeks to not only elevate her Republican party to power for the first time in the history of the Irish state, but also become its first female Prime Minister in the process.

With all three major political parties presently polling at roughly 20 per cent, McDonald’s Sinn Féin are neck and neck with the current ruling coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

The Sinn Féin leader is also polling as voter’s second most preferred option for next Prime Minister out of major party leaders on 22 per cent.

A strong performance in last Tuesday’s primetime leaders debate on Irish national broadcaster RTE may yet have tipped the scales further in the direction of Sinn Féin, with a first-time election win certain to result in shockwaves being felt by those nervously watching on from Whitehall. 

Sinn Féin  leader could potentially lead her party to power for the first time in the history of the Irish state and simultaneously become the nation’s first ever female PM

A strong showing in last Tuesday’s leaders debate may have tipped the election scales further in Sinn Féin’s favour

McDonald has this week called for discussions with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer over the process of Irish reunification

In the very first line of its ‘plans for Ireland’ section in its 2024 election manifesto, Sinn Féin states its goal of delivering ‘a plan to achieve a United Ireland’ as its foremost domestic policy goal.

Mary Lou McDonald reiterated that sentiment on the campaign trail last week in Dublin, telling the press pool that if elected to power, one of her first acts would be to create a dedicated junior ministry role to pursue and oversee the process of reunification.

McDonald also told reporters that beyond this role, a conversation had to be had with the Starmer administration on delivering a United Ireland this decade.

‘The British Government needs to start now indicating for them what they believe is the tipping point at which they believe a referendum would be called’, McDonald said. 

‘I’ve pursued this with them for a long time through many prime ministers, but I think it’s necessary that the person who is Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) would pursue that because, obviously, that brings it to a different level, and a different proposition’, the Sinn Féin leader added.

However, British PM Sir Keir Starmer has previously been a staunch objector to Irish reunification, stating during his time in opposition that an Irish unity referendum was ‘not even on the horizon’. 

Under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement though, which brought about an ‘official’ end to hostilities in Northern Ireland, the UK government must allow for a referendum on unity to take place if evidence of a significant shift in public opinion can be proven. 

If Sinn Féin were to ascend to power in Dublin for the first time though, how could one argue that the prevailing public sentiment had not shifted with the Republican party simultaneously holding both branches of power on either side of the Irish border? 

Mary Lou McDonald is currently the second most popular party leader in Irish polls

Michelle O’Neill has overseen Sinn Féin’s rise to become Northern Ireland’s largest political party for its first time ever

Incumbent Prime Minister Simon Harris has previously quashed any possibility of forming a coalition with Sinn Féin

UK PM Sir Keir Starmer has been a staunch objector to Irish unity in the past

A win for Sinn Féin in the Irish general election would cause pandemonium for Whitehall’s ardent unionists

Ordinarily, a potential Sinn Féin win in an Irish general election would trouble staunch unionists in Whitehall, but ultimately likely prove little more than a thorn in their side.

However, following the party’s momentous first ever Northern Irish Assembly win in 2022, Sinn Féin would in this scenario control the legislative houses in both Belfast and Dublin and thus remove some of the largest obstacles to a border poll. 

Unionism in Northern Ireland had previously protected Westminster’s rule over the six Ulster counties, but the North’s largest unionist party now lies in ruin after the DUP’s then-leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson was arrested earlier this year on child sex offence charges.

Moreover, July’s UK general election saw Sinn Féin return as the most well-represented Northern Irish party in the House of Commons, with seven of 18 seats won. 

This shift in Northern Ireland’s political landscape follows the results of the 2022 census which revealed that Catholics, who traditionally support reunification, outnumbered Protestants in population for the first time in over a century.

With all of the ducks seemingly lining themselves up in a row in favour of a United Ireland, it is clear to see how Sinn Féin’s ascension to power in the Republic of Ireland could be the final piece required in the reunification puzzle.

Whether or not Mary Lou McDonald makes political history as votes are counted in the coming days remains to be seen though, with the two other major parties in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil ardently stating their unwillingness to create a coalition – usually a requirement to form a government in Ireland’s proportional representation system.

Nevertheless, as elections have proven over the last number of months both in the UK and abroad, political affirmations are transient in nature, and should the Irish electorate return Sinn Féin as the island’s largest political party, it could well prove to be the signaling of the end for British rule in Northern Ireland.