French prime minister Michel Barnier today triggered the likely collapse of his government by announcing that a controversial new social security budget would not be put to a parliamentary vote.
Instead, he said that the austerity measures would be pushed through via presidential decree.
‘The situation is serious, the immediate daily lives of the French are at stake,’ Mr Barnier said during a dramatic speech in the National Assembly on Monday afternoon.
He said he had ‘reached the end of dialogue’ with opposition parties, and that ‘at this moment of truth’, ‘it is time to act to implement Article 49.3’ of the Fifth Republic Constitution.
Designed to strengthen presidential government, the measure allows any serving head of state to effectively ignore parliament.
The Article has frequently been used by President Emmanuel Macron‘s prime ministers to get difficult legislation through since he came to power in 2017.
In this case, there were fears that the social security measures have no hope of being voted through the Assembly.
Now it looks certain that the opposition will call for a No Confidence vote within two days, and Mr Barnier’s minority government is likely to lose it.
Michel Barnier delivers a speech during his visit to the Texelis company, a manufacturer of axles for heavy-duty vehicles, in Limoges, central France on November 29
RN leader Jordan Bardella said that Mr Barnier’s austerity measures would cause suffering across the whole country
Jordan Bardella, leader of the far-Right National Rally (RN) – the biggest party in the Assembly – said on Monday that Mr Barnier’s austerity measures would cause suffering across the whole country.
‘The budget presented by the government is a budget of punishment that will weaken the purchasing power of our compatriots,’ he said.
Mr Bardella added that it would take ‘a last-minute miracle’ for the RN to support Mr Barnier in parliamentary vote.
It follows Marine Le Pen, the RN’s designated presidential candidate, saying that Mr Barnier’s €40 billion (£33billion) in spending cuts and €20billion (£16bn) in tax hikes would be a disaster.
In turn, Mr Barnier, the former EU Brexit negotiatior, said such measures are essential if France is to control its deficit, which is projected to hit 6.1% this year.
The left-wing New Popular Front alliance won the most seats in the National Assembly during a snap election called by President Macron in June, but has not been allowed to play any part in government since.
The alliance has already sworn to back a no-confidence motions against Mr Barnier, meaning he now relies on the support of the far-Right RN.
This influential kingmaker position has seen the RN put forward a list of demands, including a reduction in France’s contribution to the European Union’s budget.
‘We have got four red lines, which are real red lines,’Ms Le Pen told Le Monde last week, saying Mr Barnier ‘Has got until Monday’ to comply.’
Mr Barnier has already given way on one of the RN demands – scrapping a planned rise in tax on electricity – but he is otherwise holding firm.
This has led to some commentators predicting the kind of financial disaster that befell Greece when it came close to bankruptcy in the aftermath of the 2008 international debt crisis.
Jean-Philippe Tanguy, spokesman for the RN, said: ‘We are waiting to see the draft social security budget on Monday to draw conclusions.
‘If the text has not changed and the government decides on a 49.3, we will vote to censure it.’
A no confidence vote would not take place for at least 48 hours, giving Mr Barnier time to make further concessions to his opponents before a separate vote on the main budget due later in the month.
The RN’s own position is complicated by a court case against Marine Le Pen and other top figures in the RN over the alleged embezzlement of millions of pounds worth of cash from the EU.
If the judgment, due in March, goes against the RN, Le Pen is facing prison, and could be barred from standing for political office in the next five years.
This would rule her out of the 2027 presidential election.
Mr Barnier, who is 73 and not an elected MP, was brought out of retirement by President Macron in September to try and bring some stability to the French governement.
As the political crisis worsened today, investors punished stocks and bonds and sold the euro, with French borrowing costs rising above those of Greece for the first time on record.
The RN, on whose tacit support the fragile coalition government relies, had given Barnier until today to yield to its demands – including on pension hikes – or face it backing a no-confidence motion which would lead to the government’s collapse.
A no-confidence vote could take place as early as Wednesday. No French government has been forced out by such a vote since 1962.
‘The RN will trigger the no-confidence vote mechanism unless there is a last minute miracle if Michel Barnier revises his copy before 3pm (1400 GMT),’ Bardella told RTL radio, referring to the time at which parliament is set to vote on the social security financing bill.
If he sees he does not have enough support to get that bill voted, Barnier can choose to use aggressive constitutional powers to force it through, which would inevitably trigger a no-confidence motion from the left.
Marine Le Pen speaks to the press after a hearing in her trial on suspicion of embezzlement of European public funds, at Paris courthouse, on November 27
Barnier already dropped a planned electricity tax increase last week, which the RN calls a victory, but Marine Le Pen’s party also wants him to raise pensions in line with inflation, whereas he had aimed to increase some of them less than inflation to save money.
The RN is calling for planned cuts to medication reimbursements to be scrapped and is unhappy the government may raise the tax on gas.
It also wants a reduction in France’s contribution to the European Union’s budget.
French government spokesperson Maud Bregeon told CNews television the government remained ‘open to dialogue’ and that it was in the interests of the country that France had a budget and did not fall into financial and economic chaos.
‘I’m very worried about what would happen in coming days and months…who will come to France to set up a business or a plant amid such uncertainty?’ she asked.
France is facing a difficult financial and economic situation due to the risk its budget may be blocked in parliament, Pierre Moscovici, head of France’s public audit office, said.
‘Our financial situation today is dangerous,’ Moscovici told France 2 television.