Rep. Mikie Sherrill Has Double-Digit Lead In New Jersey Gov Primary, Per Internal Poll

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) leads her closest opponent in New Jersey’s Democratic gubernatorial primary by 13 percentage points in an internal poll obtained by HuffPost that highlights her strong position in the Garden State’s June primary.

In the campaign’s poll, Sherrill, a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor with a mainstream liberal voting record, has the support of 24% of likely Democratic primary voters, compared with 11% for former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, 9% each for Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, 5% for teachers union leader Sean Spiller, and 4% for Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop.

There is a limit to what can be extrapolated from the survey’s findings, which Sherrill’s campaign shared with stakeholders on Wednesday afternoon. The live phone poll of 800 likely Democratic primary voters — conducted by Global Strategy Group from Nov. 20 to 24 — also found that 38% of likely primary voters were still undecided, suggesting the race is wide open. The poll’s margin of error is 3.5 percentage points under or over.

But the internal poll’s results are consistent with a survey conducted by the Laborers’ International Union of North America, which is backing Sherrill, that showed her ahead of Baraka by 12 points. A July poll conducted by a super PAC supporting Baraka found Sherrill leading the Newark mayor by a more modest six points.

In the Global Strategy Group survey for Sherrill’s campaign, her support also corresponds with a net-positive favorability rating of 35 points, compared to 20 points for Gottheimer and 17 points for Baraka. That advantage is largely due to Sherrill’s higher level of name recognition, which contributed to a 41% nominal favorability rating with just 6% of those polled registering an unfavorable impression of her.

In addition, the poll found that Sherrill’s numbers grew more than her rivals when respondents were given positive information about each of the candidates. The positive profile of Sherrill says her “entire life has always been about service — to our country, the Constitution, and the people of New Jersey,” while mentioning her Navy service and prosecutorial work. “Now she’s running for governor to bring new leadership to Trenton so we can reduce costs and help families get ahead, expand opportunity, and protect our rights and freedoms,” the biographical information concludes.

A similar profile of Gottheimer, who many insiders see as Sherrill’s toughest rival, says he has “always put getting things done for New Jersey first, which is why he leads the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus. Josh has always focused on Jersey Values like lowering costs, lowering taxes, and protecting freedoms while getting money back from the moocher states.”

To test the other candidates’ strength against a fundraising advantage Gottheimer is expected to develop (which would also enable him to communicate more), the pollsters provided half of the respondents with a second positive message about Gottheimer that emphasizes his New Jersey upbringing and specific ways in which he worked to lower costs for the state’s families.

After that introduction, Sherrill’s support rose to 32%, Gottheimer’s rose to 18%, Baraka’s rose to 13%, Fulop’s and Spiller’s support rose to 6% each, and Sweeney remains the same.

Finally, the poll tested negative messages against all candidates but provided one twice as long about Sherrill. In that scenario, Sherrill retained 30% of support, compared to 15% each for Gottheimer and Baraka, and 5% for Fulop. Meanwhile, Sweeney’s support grew from his original 11% to 14%, and Spiller’s support grew from his original 5% to 7%.

The 2025 contest to succeed term-limited New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is sure to be closely watched following November election results that revealed a much more divided New Jersey electorate than was previously thought. Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President-elect Donald Trump in the state by less than 6 percentage points, a close margin for a reliably Democratic state. From 2020 to 2024, New Jersey moved more toward the Republican presidential nominee than any other state besides New York.

Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia have also typically been seen as a bellwether of political trends one year into a president’s new term. In 2021, Republican Glenn Youngkin took over the governorship in Virginia, and Murphy defeated a Republican challenger by just three points. The following year, however, Democrats outperformed expectations of a midterm blowout, holding onto the Senate and losing the House only narrowly.