- Aston Villa are yet to replicate the heights of last season in the current campaign
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When he returned to the Premier League three years after his tumultuous spell at Arsenal, Unai Emery knew exactly who he wanted to emulate.
Before agreeing to take charge of Aston Villa, Emery requested a set-up similar to that of Pep Guardiola. Like the Manchester City boss, Emery wanted a say not just in the appointment of his backroom staff but of key executives, too.
It was not only about coaching the players and picking the team. Emery’s vision was to shape the whole club, just as Guardiola had done 80 miles north. He got his way. Emery’s power at Villa is comparable not only to that of Guardiola, but to Sir Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger.
Emery’s dream was to match Guardiola stride for stride. With 50 trophies between them, these are two of the best coaches in Europe. Yet when they shake hands before kick-off at Villa Park on Saturday, both find themselves in an unusually uncertain spot.
Despite only two league wins in eight, Villa have not slumped as dramatically as City have. In a little more than two years, Emery has taken a team from the wrong end of the table to the Champions League, ticking off wins over City, Arsenal (twice) and Bayern Munich along the way. Results in Europe have been superb.
Given restrictive Premier League spending regulations, it was always going to be a tall order to finish in the top four for two years in a row.
Unai Emery has enjoyed remarkable success since taking over at Aston Villa in 2022
Spaniard has mirrored Pep Guardiola’s practice of overseeing all aspects of the football club
But like Man City, Villa are struggling to replicate their domestic form in the current campaign
Villa had to sell key midfielder Douglas Luiz to Juventus last June to avoid breaking profitability and sustainability rules and dodge the big points deduction that would have come with it. At least one big sale will surely follow this summer and there is little room for manoeuvre in January.
If Villa finish eighth or ninth this season and have a decent run in Europe, few sensible supporters would complain too much. By any measure, Emery has done an outstanding job.
Villa co-owners Nassef Sawiris and Wes Edens are optimistic he can deliver regular Champions League football – something Villa may need to stay competitive. They made him one of the highest-paid bosses in Europe, with a significant buy-out clause in his contract, for precisely this reason.
They sanctioned a sizeable increase in player salaries, too, and a host of hand-picked Emery assistants. Emery’s influence stretches so far that some joke there will be nobody left to take training on the day he leaves.
The 53-year-old is not just the bloke in the dugout. He is the chief analyst, the man-manager, and the decisive voice in player trading and the award of new contracts. Though he has trusted staff to support him in all these areas, Emery – hunched over his laptop – is across the lot. ‘Workaholic’ does not even begin to cover it.
When the team are winning, this approach is great. Everyone knows who is in charge and if any player tries to take on Emery, there will be only one winner. At some other Premier League clubs, all players need to do to undermine the boss is to stroll into an executive’s office and have a good moan. That tactic will never work at Villa.
Yet if results take a turn for the worse, there are few with the seniority to question Emery. Virtually everyone on the football side owes their job to him. Even Monchi, a transfer expert renowned across the game, is in the West Midlands because Emery recommended him.
Chris Heck runs the business operation at Villa but lacks the football experience to take Emery aside and offer a few choice words at the right moment, to keep everyone calm. Because sometimes, no matter how hard Emery works, some things are beyond his control.
Finances have had an impact as the club were forced to allow Douglas Luiz to leave in the summer
More sales could soon be on the horizon to ensure the club abides by financial regulations
Despite their mixed form, the club have enjoyed a breakout star this season in the form of Jhon Duran
As a man who likes to cater for every detail, Emery will not hear of his team being ‘lucky’ or ‘unlucky’. This is, however, exactly what has changed. Where last season the ball bounced so often in Villa’s favour, it has been different this term.
Rodri missed only four league matches for City last season. One was at Villa Park on December 6 last year, when Emery’s men won 1-0 with the best display of his reign.
The equaliser in the 3-3 draw with Liverpool in May that effectively sealed Villa’s top-four spot was a total fluke, as Moussa Diaby’s overhit pass cannoned off Jhon Duran and flew beyond the helpless Alisson.
When Villa threw away a two-goal lead at home to Chelsea, the visitors were on the wrong end of a highly contentious VAR call that denied them a winner.
This season, Emery must feel like a poker player with a run of poor hands. Tyrone Mings conceded a bizarre penalty in the 1-0 defeat at Club Brugge when he was punished for picking up the ball inside the box, believing it was dead. Many referees would not have given it, but Tobias Stieler did.
Morgan Rogers had a stoppage-time goal against Juventus chalked off when Diego Carlos was harshly judged to have fouled goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio. John McGinn saw his strike disallowed in the 1-1 draw with Bournemouth when the ball was deemed to have rolled out of play in the build-up – an incredibly tight call. Rogers was denied an obvious penalty in the 2-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest last weekend.
Villa take 12.9 shots per match on average, with only six clubs taking fewer. Under such circumstances, you need your centre-forward to be clinical and Ollie Watkins has been anything but.
Based on statistics supplied by FBref.com, Watkins is behind only Erling Haaland, Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer for xG (expected goals) yet he has just seven. Haaland and Salah have 13 apiece, Palmer 11.
Emery has yet to find a way to best include both the Colombian and star striker Ollie Watkins into his system
Getting Watkins back to his best in front of goal could be key in turning the club’s season around
The 28-year-old’s lean run cannot be attributed only to fluctuating form. Watkins missed pre-season after playing for England at Euro 2024 and has been unsettled by the progress of Duran.
Like most No9s, Watkins does not enjoy competition and performs better when he is the clear first-choice. Watkins has been substituted between the 60th and 70th minute six times already and Duran was preferred from the start against Southampton and Forest.
At this stage of his career, Watkins is a far more complete footballer than Duran but the Colombian is capable of magic moments that change matches. Emery has not yet found a way to accommodate both.
If you exclude Emery’s time at serial French champions Paris St Germain and Spanish yo-yo club Almeria, his average points-per-game in Europe’s top five leagues is 1.69. That equates to 64.2 points across a 38-game season. Since four teams were granted automatic Champions League qualification in 2009-10, 64 points has never been enough to claim fourth. In the Premier League alone, Emery’s average is 66.8 points – which would have landed fourth in the 2015-16 and 2019-20 seasons.
That total will usually be sufficient for a European spot, which would still be very good going for Villa. Let’s not forget they were close to going bust six years ago and escaped the Championship only in 2019. But Sawiris and Edens never wanted to stop there.
Emery’s brilliance until now has masked off-field issues, with many supporters unhappy with the club’s ticket pricing and seating policy. The last thing anyone needs is tension behind the scenes between coach and hierarchy. That is why a repeat of the result and performance against City 12 months ago would do very nicely.