Labour‘s pledge to increase defence spending could be delayed until the 2030s, despite warnings it will put Britain’s security at risk.
As economic woes and market turmoil threaten to destabilise the Government’s economic agenda, Rachel Reeves could be forced to wield the axe to public spending plans as soon as March.
Whitehall sources told the Mail that the Treasury could delay meeting Labour’s pledge to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP until after the next election.
The move would ease the pressure on the public finances, but would leave the Armed Forces short-changed.
It brought a backlash from defence figures and comes as Boris Johnson warned Ms Reeves that her time was up – squarely blaming her for the current ‘shambles’. After a week in which the markets turned on Labour, Mr Johnson writes in today’s Mail: ‘It is time for Rachel from Accounts to make her way to Human Resources and collect her P45.’
Lord Soames – former Tory defence minister and grandson of Winston Churchill – called for more security spending, as he warned that ‘we have allowed our defences to drop to perilous levels’.
Former Nato chief Lord Robertson is conducting a Strategic Defence Review for ministers, looking at the threats Britain faces and the capabilities it needs to meet them.
He is due to report in the spring, with Ms Reeves then expected to set out a timetable for meeting the 2.5 per cent target alongside the Spending Review in June.
A muzzle flash lights up pine trees as British Army soldiers take part in training near Rovaniemi in the Arctic Circle, Finland in November 2024
As economic woes and market turmoil threaten to destabilise the Government’s economic agenda, Rachel Reeves could be forced to wield the axe to public spending plans as soon as March. Reeves pictured today meeting with Minister of Finance for China Lan Fo’an at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China
The pledge to increase defence spending from its current level of 2.3 per cent could cost as much as £20 billion and is the Government’s biggest unfunded commitment by far.
Delaying the target would ease the pressure on the Chancellor as she carries out a ‘tight’ spending review covering the period up to the next election. One source said that setting out a plan to hit the 2.5 per cent target after 2030 would not ‘technically’ breach Labour’s manifesto, which pledged only to agree a timetable.
But, in the most dangerous period since the end of the Cold War, the source conceded: ‘There would be a lot of dissatisfaction both at home and abroad about whether we were really doing enough.’
It would also risk a major row with Donald Trump, who has warned Nato countries he wants to raise the alliance’s minimum spending commitment from 2 per cent of GDP to 5 per cent.
Ms Reeves has previously ruled out both increasing borrowing and raising taxes following the significant tax hikes in October’s Budget, leaving her with few options beyond further spending cuts. She has given most departments more money for the next two years, but is planning cuts to many areas after that. Any additional cash is expected to be swallowed up by the NHS.
The Mail’s Don’t Leave Britain Defenceless campaign is calling for an immediate rise in spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP, increasing to at least 3 per cent by 2030. Former Labour security minister Lord West said Britain could not afford any further delay.
Lord West, a former head of the Navy, told the Mail: ‘This nonsense of saying we’ll wait and see when we can afford to spend more money on defence is just crazy.
‘Our forces are hollowed out and there is not enough money in the programme. We need to increase spending immediately.’
The Mail’s Don’t Leave Britain Defenceless campaign is calling for an immediate rise in spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP, increasing to at least 3 per cent by 2030
Tory MP Julian Lewis, a former chairman of the Commons defence committee, said ministers should be planning to raise the defence budget ‘towards a figure approaching what we used to spend in the 1980s’, when it accounted for 4 to 5 per cent of GDP.
‘There are two crucial reasons for this,’ he said. ‘Firstly, if we don’t then it is highly likely that Donald Trump is going to turn his back on Nato.
‘Secondly, if Nato isn’t seen to be capable of defending and defeating a Russian attack then the amount we would have to spend on defence in a wartime situation would be colossal. There is no time to lose – we have to start spending more money now.’
Defence Secretary John Healey has told colleagues he wants the spending target to be hit ‘as soon as possible’.
Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said that in financial terms it would be ‘staggeringly hard’ to achieve the 2.5 per cent target in the next five years.
The last Conservative government pledged to hit the defence spending target by 2030, funded largely by cutting 72,000 jobs in the Civil Service. But Labour has since abandoned the plan to reduce Civil Service numbers to their pre-pandemic level.