Putin will not shy away from causing mass casualties in the next phase of its ‘hidden war’ against the West, an expert has claimed in the wake of suspected ‘hybrid’ efforts to sow disruption in Europe through alleged sabotage plots.
Keir Giles, an expert on the Russia at Chatham House, told Metro that civilians are ‘likely’ to be the victims of future plots, and that the West should expect a surge in terror attacks soon.
The Kremlin has been accused of orchestrating attacks on European soil as retribution for the West’s broad backing of Ukraine against Russia‘s full-scale invasion, or to undermine support for Kyiv.
Counter-terrorism police in Britain were last year said to be investigating suspected Russian involvement in the planting of a hidden incendiary device in a parcel on a plane headed for the UK. The device ultimately burst into flames in a warehouse and no casualties were reported.
Mr Giles said that where, during the Cold War, Russia sponsored terrorist movements to carry out attacks in Europe, ‘now with these airlines parcel plots, the willingness from Russia to cause mass casualties has returned’.
‘We should soon expect a surge in Russian state terrorist attacks across Europe,’ he cautioned.
The stark warning came as Poland’s Prime Minister claimed that Russia has been planning acts of ‘air terror’ against airlines worldwide, staging sabotage and diversion on Polish soil and beyond.
Putin’s Russia has been accused of orchestrating ‘hybrid’ attacks on European soil
Two incendiary devices had been shipped via a DHL logistics centre on July 22 to Birmingham , England, and Leipzig, Germany, resulting in a fire
Pictured: A fire ignited at a plant in Berlin containing poisonous sulphuric acid and copper cyanide that is reportedly linked to missiles supplied to Ukraine
Mr Giles told the outlet that Russia’s neighbours in northern Europe have been ringing alarm bells ‘for years’ about the Kremlin’s disruptive tactics.
But without hard consequences to deter such attacks, Moscow has continued getting away with interfering in foreign affairs.
Russia has long been accused of meddling in elections in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, using cyber capabilities to push narratives to undermine political stability and, by extension, the Baltic commitment to its allies.
It was also accused of interfering in historic votes in Britain and the US election.
Mr Giles warned that it would take a ‘substantial disaster’ before Europe wakes up to the imminent threat from Russia.
‘There’s no indication that anybody is still listening to the Nordics and Baltic states’ warnings despite the repeated evidence that they were right,’ he said.
The cutting of crucial underseas telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea in November generated outrage and stark warnings about Russia’s ability to allegedly interfere in European affairs.
A 135-mile internet link between Lithuania and Sweden’s Gotland Island went out of service, according to a local supplier, before a 745-mile cable running from Helsinki to Rostock, Germany went offline.
Bubbles break to the surface amid a leak at the Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022
More than 97 per cent of the world’s communications are transmitted through sub sea optical fibre cables surrounded by armouring wire and a Polyethylene cover
Finland and Germany said in a joint statement that they were investigating ‘an incident (that) immediately raises suspicions of intentional damage’ before European ministers put together a joint statement blaming Russia.
A fatal plane crash in Lithuania in November also prompted a sharp response from the state, heavily implying possible Russian involvement.
‘We see Russia becoming more aggressive, and foreign partners are also on the air, talking about dangers and cases of sabotage or a certain threat of terrorism,’ Darius Jauniškis, head of the State Security Department, said.
Suspicions were also roused when a chemical factory in Berlin went up in flames in May last year, as it was revealed the firm made weapons supplied to Ukraine.
Western security officials said in June that the fire at Diehl Metal Applications was targeted by Russian saboteurs trying to disrupt shipments of critical arms and ammunition.
Russia has been accused of trying to destabilise the West and allies since the war in Ukraine began by allegedly ‘weaponising mass migration‘ along its western border; sabotaging Nord Stream pipelines providing Europe with gas; influencing elections in Moldova and Georgia; jamming aircraft GPS; and even sending exploding sex toys to Western Europe.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk yesterday echoed allegations that Russia was seeking to disrupt Europe in brief comments during a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Warsaw.
‘All I can say, and I will not go into details, but I can confirm the validity of these fears, is that Russia has been planning acts of air terror, and not only against Poland, but against airlines all over the world,’ Tusk told reporters.
Defence officials warned in November that Europe remains ‘totally unprepared’ to deal with such threats, lacking the resources to effectively counter sabotage, arson, assassination and attacks on infrastructure.
A former senior European official told the Guardian said Europe could expect more ‘hybrid’ attacks to unfold on the continent in the wake of the American decision to permit usage of long-range ATACMS missiles against targets deep inside Russia.
UK and EU ministers have acknowledged that Russia’s alleged hybrid attacks were ‘escalating’ and ‘unprecedented’ in scale, posing security risks.
The German cabinet has since agreed plans to allow the army to shoot down suspicious drones after several sightings over military sites.
Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said that ‘especially since Putin‘s war of aggression against Ukraine, we have seen that drones are being used more and more frequently, which poses an increasing challenge for the police and their current technology.’
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk shake hands in Warsaw
A British Challenger 2 tank operating in Ukraine in August 2023
Residents clean the debris from the damaged residential house after a Russian shelling in Kostiantynivka, Ukraine on November 19
The ministry said that ‘security services have noted that reports of sightings of uncooperative drones over critical infrastructure and military properties in Germany are increasing.’
‘Espionage or sabotage are regularly considered as a possible reason,’ it added in a statement, as tensions between Moscow and Berlin continue to run high.
Under current regulations, soldiers can assist the police in forcing an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to change direction or land, threaten to shoot it down or fire warning shots.
But under the new proposals, a drone could be shot down by the army if it is believed the device is being ‘used against the lives of people or against a critical facility, and the use of armed force is the only means of averting this present danger’, the ministry said.