A report published today found that 56% of voters believe net migration rose last year – when in fact it halved – thanks to constant ‘crisis messaging’ about migration and asylum
Relentless “crisis messaging” about migration means most voters think it is rising, even as it plummets, Keir Starmer has been warned.
Data published today is expected to reveal net migration has fallen to pre-Brexit levels. But most people think the opposite is true, with experts warning the PM risks risk convincing people immigration is “out of control”.
A survey by Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker found 56% of the public believes net migration rose last year. In reality 2024’s figures more than halved – from 848,000 to 345,000, having peaked at 944,000 in 2023.
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Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future thinktank, said: “Net migration is falling, with today’s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn’t caught up. As numbers move closer to ‘normal’ levels, politicians can’t just keep competing over who will cut them further.
“The risk for Keir Starmer ’s government, which is promising to get a grip on numbers, is that constant crisis messaging only reinforces the public belief that asylum and immigration are out of control. Public attitudes are becoming more polarised.”
He added: “The risk for Keir Starmer’s government, which is promising to get a grip on numbers, is that constant crisis messaging only reinforces the public belief that asylum and immigration are out of control.”
People also believe asylum makes up a larger proportion than it actually does, the study found. Most think it accounts for a third of all immigration, while in fact it was around 14% in the year to June.
Although most people hold balanced views, researchers found, 16% claimed immigration offers no benefits, up from 7% in 2021. A third of people want numbers to stay the same, while 41% want it to go down “a lot” – and 15% favour an increase.
Most people struggled to say what migration for work they would cut – with only a minority saying the number of doctors, care workers, lorry drivers or seasonal farm workers should go down.
Mr Katwala said: “We need a more honest, transparent debate about how much immigration we need and want to keep, how to manage the pressures it brings and how we maximise the benefits to Britain.”
And Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “It’s clear that immigration is rising up the public’s agenda, a process that started in 2023 but has accelerated further this year. It is seen as a major source of tension in the UK, and attitudes are now more negative than they have been for some time (although still not quite to the extent they were before the 2016 referendum).
“Much of this is driven by persistent dissatisfaction with how successive governments are dealing with it, particularly over the issue of small boats crossing the Channel, and asylum numbers take up an overlarge proportion of the public’s mind when thinking about immigration.
“But attitudes towards immigration beyond this show more nuance. Overall, Britons still on balance prioritise a system that delivers control over simply reducing numbers to as low as possible, and across a range of different occupations only a minority want to reduce migration for work.”
The report calls for ministers to scale up the UK–France asylum deal to manage Channel crossings, ending the use of asylum hotels by next year, speed up decisions and create “credible” routes to settlement.
It says the debate around immigration should recognise legitmitate concerns, but distinguish these from prejudice.