Health chiefs have warned that the NHS is facing the ‘worst case scenario’ this winter with the latest figures revealing that hospitals are already facing record demand as mutant flu sweeps across the country.
Emergency departments across the country are already at capacity with patients being turned away from their local hospital.
A record number of A&E arrivals have been diverted in the last week, up 60 per cent from the same week last year.
This comes as new monthly figures today show A&E attendances were a record for November, over 75,000 people everyday were being rushed to hospital.
With a total of 2.35 million in A&E, which is more than 30,000 higher than November 2024, while there were 48,814 more ambulance incidents compared to last year.
Just seven in ten were seen within four hours — the health service’s target
Experts have in part put this down to a surge in flu cases.
An average of 2,660 patients per day were in a hospital bed with flu last week – the highest ever for this time of year and up 55 per cent up on last week.
The rapid rise in cases has been put down to the H2N3 strain, dubbed subclade K or the ‘super flu’ by others.
Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS National Medical Director, said: ‘With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year – with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients.
‘The number of patients in hospital with flu is extremely high for this time of year.
‘Even worse, it continues to rise and the peak is not in sight yet, so the NHS faces an extremely challenging few weeks ahead.’
NHS Shropshire, Telford And Wrekin Integrated Care Board was the worst NHS trust for A&E waits, with just 61 per cent of patients seen within the target four hours, followed by Herefordshire And Worcestershire Integrated Care Board with just 64 per cent.
While over 50,000 patients were waiting over 12 hours to be admitted.
The hospitals with the highest proportion of patients waiting over 12 hours were also Shropshire and Herefordshire.
The latest figures come just a day after a number of hospitals declared critical incidents.
Increased flu cases have led to a critical incident being declared at at least six hospitals in the West Midlands, including Birmingham, Solihull, Stafford and Stoke-on-Trent.
University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust, which is responsible for Queen Elizabeth, Heathlands and Good Hope Hospitals along with nearby Solihull Hospital, issued an alert due to ‘extreme pressures’.
Meanwhile, University Hospitals of North Midlands (UHNM) trust is urging people to only use A&E in a serious or life-threatening emergency.
The announcement covers both Royal Stoke University Hospital and County Hospital, Stafford.
Chief operating officer Katy Thorp said the difficult decision to declare a critical incident would allow them to take extra measures to keep services safe for hospital patients and those waiting for an ambulance.
In Scotland, NHS Ayrshire and Arran has also cancelled ‘routine visiting’ across all its hospitals amid ‘significant pressure’ due to a ‘sharp rise in viral respiratory infections, including flu’.
Mandatory mask rules have been imposed over recent weeks in parts of hospitals in London, Berkshire, Surrey, Lincolnshire, Shropshire and Oxfordshire amid alarm at infection numbers.
Dr Elizabeth Whittaker, Department of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, said: ‘The flu statistics match what we are seeing in the emergency department and wards in our hospitals, it is very busy.
‘This follows what was seen in Australia in their winter, and importantly, they saw lots of cases in children. The vaccine is a good match this year for protection, so now is the time for pregnant women and those children who missed their dose in school to get one to protect themselves for Christmas.
‘The flu vaccine is free and recommended for all children aged between 2 to 17. As always, if a fever in a child doesn’t settle after 5 days, or settles and starts again, the advice is to contact NHS 111 or seek advice from a GP.’
Experts warn that this is just the beginning of pressures on the NHS this winter.
‘The latest figures are a real concern, A&E departments are choker block with people and that is a real worry as we are not at the peak of the season yet,’ says Professor Laurance Young, a virologist from the University of Warwick.
Experts warn that the pressures on the NHS could be compounded in coming weeks by another virus circulating.
Dr Lindsay Broadbent, Lecturer in Virology, University of Surrey, said: ‘The RSV season is also picking up, we are seeing an increase in RSV cases. A respiratory virus that is particularly dangerous for young babies but can also cause severe disease in older adults or those with underlying conditions such as asthma or COPD.
‘The increase in both influenza and RSV is worrying for the NHS, that will be under pressure to meet demand.’
However NHS waiting times data also released today did reveal a slight improvement, on this time last year.
A total of 172,556 people in England had been waiting more than a year to start routine hospital treatment at the end of October, down from 180,329 at the end of September.
This time last year, the figure stood at 234,914.
The Government and NHS England have set a target of March 2026 for this figure to be reduced to less than 1 per cent.