THE BREAKDOWN: How Aston Villa barged into the title race because of never-say-die angle, a tactic that separates them from the remainder of the Premier League and Ollie Watkins’ resurgence

Talk about a turnaround. It was just a few months ago that Aston Villa were winless, goalless and languishing in the relegation zone.

A side that had only missed out on Champions League football on the final day last season were suddenly the only team in the top seven divisions of English football without a single goal to their name.

Unai Emery, for all the growing pressure around him, stayed calm. And here Villa are now: nine wins from 10, five on the bounce, and a victory over Arsenal at the weekend that put them just three points behind the Premier League leaders.

During this run, Villa have scored more goals than all but Manchester City, conceded fewer than all but Arsenal and the 27 points they have earned in that time is unsurprisingly the most in the top flight.

How has Emery managed it? For a start, they never, ever give up. I was at the Amex Stadium as Villa fought back from two goals down to win an incredible 4-3 thriller during which a manic Emery tore off his coat and hurled it to the floor in crazed celebration after his side’s equaliser. He was inspiring to watch – no wonder he gets his players to run through walls for him too.

No Premier League side has gained more points from losing positions this season than Villa (12), while no team has dropped fewer once they take the lead (2).

Villa are making a mockery of the nerds and the number crunchers. According to the data, they should be nowhere near the title race. They should, in fact, be in a relegation battle.

As per Opta’s ‘expected points’ table, which measures the quality of the chances a side both creates and concedes in every game, Villa should be 13 points worse off. They shouldn’t be third, they should be 16th.

Before the win at Brighton in midweek, Villa had the second-lowest expected goals (xG) per game in the division, above just Burnley. Over the first five games, they averaged just 0.77 xG per game, less even than relegated Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton mustered last season.

So, what has changed?

At the beginning of the season, Villa had real problems in attack. Emery’s side are set up with two holding midfielders and often two No10s, who start as wingers but drift centrally, to drive forward at pace through the middle and exploit the space in between and behind opposition defences.

But teams had figured out how to stop them. They sat in, didn’t press high and crowded the centre of the pitch to make it difficult for Villa to play through while the summer departures of Leon Bailey, Jacob Ramsey and loanee Marcus Rashford meant Villa lacked any alternative options with pace and bite in wide areas.

I was at the Gtech Stadium at the start of the season for their defeat at Brentford and it was clear how much Villa struggled to break down a team who sat off them. Take the image below from early in the game. Brentford drop back, refuse to be baited into a press that Villa can play through and pack the central areas.

It wasn’t just at Brentford. The likes of Everton and Crystal Palace did the same. Villa struggled to find any answers. They didn’t fail to score over the first four games because they missed chances but, more worryingly, because they failed to create any.

Three of their opening five games saw Villa dominate possession but they didn’t win any of them, and lost twice. And so to fix it, in the short term at least, Emery made the radical decision to move away from modern football’s prevailing wisdom. He told his team to start shooting from distance.

That’s not how it’s done in the new world order of analysis and xG, where potshots from range are nothing more than trying your luck. You need to work the ball as close to goal as possible to stand the best chance of scoring.

‘You want to do things that statistically give you a better chance of scoring than a player trying to rap it into the top corner from 30 yards,’ a head of performance at a top Premier League club told Daily Mail Sport earlier this year in a discussion over why fewer free-kicks are being scored now than ever before.

‘It’s now left less to “this player fancies a go” to what is statistically the best decision for each team and each moment.’

Only, for Villa, this was the best decision, even if not statistically, for Emery’s team. If they were struggling to break down crowded areas, don’t bother. Just shoot instead. And, incredibly, it has worked. It’s been at the heart of their remarkable winning run.

Villa’s first goal of the season, in the draw against Sunderland, came from outside the box. Across the following eight games, of which Villa won seven, eight of their next 15 goals came that way too.

Their nine goals from outside the box is, unsurprisingly, the most of any side in the division. It’s more than double all but Manchester City and Bournemouth. It also makes up 41 per cent of their goals this term. The league average over the past decade is about 13 per cent, or roughly one in every eight.

 

What is remarkable, however, is just how ruthless Villa are from range. Six of Emery’s stars have bagged at least one goal from distance while Matty Cash, Morgan Rogers and the Arsenal hero Emi Buendia have two apiece.

Villa have scored from 15 per cent of their shots from outside the box so far. That is insane. On average, teams usually score about three per cent of them.

On the one hand, you could say that’s unsustainable. It’s partly because of this tactic that Villa still average the joint-lowest xG per shot in the division.

On the other, however, you could argue that, if you have players with the technical ability to score them more frequently than they should – and Villa do – then make the most of it. Sometimes, it really can be the best option.

Take the winner against Wolves. When Boubacar Kamara receives the ball, he looks up to see nine yellow shirts in front of him. The penalty area is packed like a Tube carriage. 

There is no obvious pass. He could shift the ball wide to Lucas Digne (12) but all Wolves will do is shift across and crowd him out too. Villa could keep the ball, keep working it wide and back and sideways but, as they keep proving, will likely create nothing at the end of it. So, Kamara takes aim and sticks it in the top corner.

It was a similar situation in the win at Bournemouth. Amadou Onana collects the ball on the edge of a box packed to the rafters with pink shirts. Why bother knocking it around when you can drill it into the bottom corner? 

It is clearly a plan. Over the first five winless games, despite having most of the ball in four of them, Villa averaged 35 passes into the box per match. Since then, that’s dropped to 25. They averaged 16 crosses from open play in those first five, as they struggled to play through the middle so shifted it to the flanks. Now, it’s around nine.

Even if Villa’s long-range barrage is unsustainable, it’s already done its job. It’s helped them surge up to third in the table and, most importantly, will change the way opponents defend against them. Teams know they can’t just sit in any more. They can’t allow Villa to have the ball on the edge of the box and not send a defender out to close them down. As soon as one does that, it will leave space to exploit.

And the past two games against Brighton and Arsenal, just days apart, have shown that Emery’s players, when given that opportunity, still have the ability to do so. And that Emery still has a few other plans up his sleeve.

All six of Villa’s goals across the two matches have come inside the box. Just four of their 29 shots in both came from outside the penalty area.

Ollie Watkins’ return to form and fitness has been key to that. Emery revealed his striker has been managing a knee injury since the start of last season and it’s had an impact.

At the Amex, though, we saw Watkins at nearly back to his best with his brace showing off both his ability to run in behind but also find space in even the most crowded of boxes. His first goal, a tap in, came after a clever run to the back post to get on the end of full back Ian Maatsen’s cross.

Crucially, though, both Brighton and Arsenal gave him space to run into. Space that teams at the start of the season refused to afford them. That’s when Rogers and John McGinn can cause the most damage.

This example against Brighton shows Villa at their best. Rogers collects the ball with his back to goal, under pressure from Mats Wieffer, but turns him, breaks forward and slips a pass into Watkins running through, who spurns a great chance.

McGinn does similar later on in the first half, only for Watkins to be marginally offside. This is when Villa are at their most threatening. 

It was another ball over the top from Rogers, on the stroke of half-time, that Watkins raced onto to add his second and put Villa level.

Arsenal frequently allowed Villa the space in behind, too, from which Rogers – back at his very best, controlling the game all over the pitch – and McGinn were able to feed Watkins.

And whenever Villa got the ball on the edge of the Arsenal box, Arteta’s men refused to give them time and space to get their shot away. 

In the example below, Jurrien Timber jumps out of the back line as soon as Kamara collects the ball. In doing so, though, it opens up space.

Teams have come to realise they can’t just let Villa chance their arm. But if they don’t, Emery has shown he will find another way to get you. 

That’s why Villa are back from the brink and bang in the title race.