Britain has a ‘very low chance’ of a widespread white Christmas, the Met Office said today as forecasters revealed frost and freezing fog are more likely.
High pressure is expected to bring dry and settled weather to the UK by December 25 with temperatures around average or just below for the time of year.
Overnight frost and fog could become widespread but meteorologists do not think conditions will become particularly cold – and there is no snow in the forecast.
This is despite bookmakers suggesting a white Christmas is still odds-on to happen, with Ladbrokes offering 1/3 on snow falling somewhere in the country and Coral 1/2.
Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth explained there were three most likely scenarios of what high pressure will be most dominant over the UK on Christmas Day.
The first, with a 49 per cent chance, is an anticyclonic northerly centred over the Irish Sea which would bring northerly winds and reduce any possible precipitation.
The second, an anticyclonic east-southeasterly, has a 12 per cent chance and would be centred over Denmark – bringing in easterly winds, and showers to the West.
The third one, also with a 12 per cent chance, is an anticyclonic southwesterly over northern France that would bring a southwesterly wind and slightly milder weather.
Leadhills in South Lanarkshire on Boxing Day 2022, when a snow and ice warning was issued
A woman walks her dog through the snow at Castleside in County Durham on Boxing Day 2021
Three likely scenarios of what high pressure will be most dominant in the UK on Christmas Day
Ms Shuttleworth concluded: ‘All of these show high pressure dominating the weather and most slightly colder than average, but nothing exceptionally cold.
‘So there is a very low chance of any widespread white Christmas at all at this time in any of these outcomes and even if we do see an easterly or a northerly wind, what we can expect is a general downtrend in temperatures.’
The Met Office has not yet issued a full Christmas forecast, with meteorologists normally accurately able to forecast snow up to five days beforehand.
But bookmakers still seem confident on the possibility of a white Christmas, with Ladbrokes saying that it is now offering 1/3 on snow anywhere in the UK on Christmas Day, with Edinburgh the most likely at 5/4, ahead of Newcastle at 2/1 and Belfast at 5/2. London is priced at 8/1.
Rival firm William Hill said that Aberdeen is priced at evens for snow on Christmas Day, while Edinburgh is at 6/4, Newcastle at 7/4 and Leeds at 2/1. London is at 6/1.
Coral said that a white Christmas was priced at 1/2, with Glasgow top of the list at evens – followed by Edinburgh at 5/4 and Newcastle at 7/4. London is at 4/1.
The Met Office forecast for the ten days from this Sunday until December 30 states that the period will begin unsettled with low pressure centred to the South West while high pressure ‘tries to nose in from the East across northern areas’.
Forecasters said this means a ‘broadly easterly flow becoming established, whilst periods of rain or showers becoming increasingly confined to southern or southwestern parts’.
But as the week goes on, high pressure is ‘signalled to become rather more dominant with more in the way dry, settled weather anticipated’.
The forecast continued: ‘With this, temperatures will probably lower a little compared to recent weeks, closer to or perhaps a little below average for some.
Snow covers houses in the Northumberland town of Hexham on Christmas Day 2020
Snow covered fields near Cheltenham are seen from Queens Wood on Boxing Day 2010
‘Overnight frost and fog or freezing fog could become more widespread, though any particularly cold conditions look unlikely at this stage.’
Forecasters say snow is actually more likely in January and February than December.
Met Office data covering a period between 1991 and 2020 shows snow has settled on the ground for an average of three days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March.
The Met Office can declare an official ‘white Christmas’ when a single snowflake is observed falling on the 24 hours of 25 December, by either an official Met Office observer or by a Met Office automated weather station.
Since 2020, each year except 2024 has officially been a white Christmas – although very few places actually reported snow settling in all of those years.
And since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least 5 per cent of the network record snow falling on Christmas Day.
But there has only been a widespread covering of snow on the ground – where more than 40 per cent of stations in the UK report snow on the ground at 9am – four times since 1960.
Those years were 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010.
The latter had snow on the ground at 83 per cent of stations – the highest amount ever recorded – while snow or sleet also fell at 19 per cent of stations.
London has only seen five white Christmases since 1960, with the last one nearly 25 years ago in 2001.
Scotland has had 43 since 65, while Northern Ireland has not had one for 14 years.