Americans could soon see a break at the pump after Trump’s Venezuelan oil takeover.
Experts say gasoline prices, airline tickets, and even grocery bills could ease if US oil companies gain control over the country’s massive reserves.
Venezuela holds 303 billion barrels of proven oil – nearly a fifth of the global total – most of it heavy, sour crude locked in the Orinoco Belt.
Yet years of mismanagement, corruption, and US sanctions have slashed production from 3.5million to 1.1 million barrels per day, less than 1 percent of global supply.
The Trump administration has made clear that oil sits at the center of Washington’s Venezuela strategy, after the sensational arrest of president Nicolás Maduro.
Officials say the US will temporarily ‘run’ the country’s energy sector, investing billions to fix crumbling infrastructure and restore output.
Chevron is expected to gain first access, with ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips promised future contracts.
If production ramps steadily, the impact on American households could be substantial over the coming years, according to veteran oil expert Tony Franjie.
Cheaper crude lowers transportation costs, easing airline tickets, trucking, and groceries.
‘Lower gasoline prices, lower airfare – this is going to be great for the US consumer,’ said Franjie, a 26-year energy industry analyst at Texas-based SynMax Intelligence.
Franjie forecasts crude could fall below $40 a barrel and gasoline could dip to around $2.50 a gallon, down from $2.80.
The type of oil in Venezuela is thick, dirty and expensive to process – but that is where Franjie sees America’s edge.
Americans could pay as little as $2.50 per gallon at the pump if Venezuelan production cuts global prices, experts say
An oil pumpjack on Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela, where production has fallen for years thanks in part to aging infrastructure
‘The US Gulf Coast refineries were built around Venezuelan crude,’ he said. ‘They’re better than any other refineries in the world at handling that heavy Venezuelan crude.’
These facilities, designed decades ago for Venezuela’s oil, could pivot back quickly from Canadian crude and shale if margins are favorable.
Chevron’s early foothold is a key part of the strategy.
‘The big one is going to be Chevron,’ Franjie said.
‘They’ve had a presence there. They’re the biggest private player, and they’re the savviest among the super majors.’
The company maintained limited operations even as sanctions tightened, giving it a head start.
US energy stocks jumped on expectations of Venezuelan production returning to American hands, with Chevron’s shares surging by as much as 10 percent in early trading.
‘Anybody who owns Chevron shares, or energy ETFs, is a straightforward winner,’ Franjie said.
Proponents say that if US firms can scale up production, the domestic benefits could be felt by the end of the year.
Cheaper fuel would ripple through the economy, lowering costs for trucking, airlines, and the broader supply chain.
We’ve got a very cheap source of crude that no one else is going to be able to get,’ Franjie said.
‘Venezuela has more oil reserves than any other country in the world, and we would have first access to it.’
But the billion-dollar question is how deep Venezuela’s infrastructure problems lie, with many arguing that meaningful recovery could take decades.
Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute, said $100 billion of investment and over a decade would be required to restore Venezuelan output.
Columbia University energy scholar Luisa Palacios wrote that it could take as long as 20 years for new operations to turn a profit, noting investors may prefer safer bets.
Jorge León, of Rystad Energy, said ‘forced regime change rarely stabilizes oil supply quickly’ and pointed to America’s experience in Iraq, which imploded after the US-led invasion of 2003.
The capture and arrest of Nicolas Maduro has paved the way for massive changes in Venezuela’s energy sector
Chevron has a history in Venezuela and could emerge as the big winner from the transfer of power there
Trump has said the US will temporarily ‘run’ the country, with the goal of rebuilding its shattered energy sector
But Franjie argued that modern drilling, fracking techniques and American operational efficiency can reverse declines much faster than skeptics think.
‘Chevron has the technology and know-how to get it done faster than anyone thinks,’ he said.
‘I think starting a year from now, we should start to see a small production increase out of Venezuela.’
That may not sound dramatic, he explains, but in oil markets, direction matters as much as scale.
‘To get production up by a million or more barrels a day will take time,’ Franjie acknowledges. ‘But turning it around can happen much sooner.’
Analysts agree that a full revival will require billions of dollars and years of work. Pipelines are rusting. Facilities are degraded. Skilled workers fled long ago.
Political risks remain huge. Acting Venezuelan president Delcy Rodríguez has asserted herself as a power broker in Caracas.
Maduro loyalists are contesting US authority. International lawyers are questioning the legality of Washington’s intervention, while leaders in Mexico, Colombia and Brazil have branded it destabilizing.
China and Russia are watching closely. Both have deep strategic interests in Venezuelan oil. Any redirection of exports away from Beijing and toward the US Gulf Coast could reshape global energy flows.
Experts say that socialist mismanagement and corruption have hindered output. Pictured: the headquarters of Petroleos de Venezuela
Production has collapsed from around 3.5 million barrels per day decades ago to roughly 1.1 million barrels today
Short term, geopolitical risks remain. Tensions with Iran have lifted prices recently. But Franjie sees those risks as temporary.
Longer term, he believes a surge in oil and natural gas – from Venezuela, the US and beyond – will overwhelm demand.
None of this means Venezuela’s problems vanish. Franjie is blunt about that too.
‘Venezuela will re-nationalize again at some point. All governments do,’ he said. ‘But that could be 10 or 15 years from now – and that’s plenty of time.’
That, in a nutshell, is the oilman’s calculation. Move fast. Price in the risk. Get the barrels out. Make the money early.
For Chevron and its peers, Franjie sees a narrow but powerful window – one that could reshape balance sheets, reward investors and finally give American drivers a break at the pump.
For once, he said, geopolitics and gasoline prices may be moving in the same direction.
And that is something most Americans can understand.