Sir Keir Starmer was today warned that Labour‘s support is continuing to tumble across the whole UK ahead of crucial elections in May.
Professor Sir John Curtice, a leading polling expert, said Labour ‘now seem to be in third place’ in nationwide polls behind both Reform UK and the Tories.
This has heightened the party’s challenge ahead of key elections in Scotland, Wales and England later this year, Sir John added.
Contests in May for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd and English councils and mayoralties are increasingly being viewed as a critical test for Sir Keir.
It is widely expected that a disastrous set of election results for Labour will prompt an effort to oust the Prime Minister among Labour MPs.
Sir Keir’s woes deepened further this week when Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, urged him to stay away from the Holyrood election campaign.
Mr Sarwar, whose hopes of replacing the SNP’s John Swinney as first minister are fading, admitted both the PM and UK Government were ‘unpopular’ in Scotland.
He added he was ‘not going to live in denial’ of Labour’s astonishing slump in support since their 2024 general election victory.
Sir Keir Starmer has been warned that Labour’s support is continuing to tumble across the whole UK ahead of crucial elections in May
Sir Keir’s woes deepened further this week when Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, urged him to stay away from the Holyrood election campaign
Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on Thursday, Sir John said Labour had ‘suffered the most substantial and quickest fall in support of any newly-elected government’.
‘In the most recent polling Labour are now on an average of 18 per cent and now seem to be in third place,’ he added.
‘They now seem to be running a little bit behind the Conservatives, who have seen at least a little bit of a reversal of their further decline from the very low figure of 24 per cent in the general election.
‘That probably helps to explain why support for Reform, although Reform is still clearly ahead in the polls, why Reform has now slipped below the 30 per cent mark.
‘The problem for Labour is that their support across the UK as a whole continues to slide.
‘And that doesn’t make Anas Sarwar’s job in trying to become first minister of Scotland any easier.’
Sir John said the threat posed to Labour by Reform in Scotland was even greater than the challenge facing Sir Keir from Nigel Farage’s party at Westminster.
‘Labour is losing more support to Reform north of the border than they are south of the border – about twice the rate,’ he continued.
On Monday, Mr Sarwar warned Sir Keir to steer clear of Scottish Labour’s Holyrood election campaign over the coming months.
In a direct criticism of the beleaguered PM, Mr Sarwar highlighted errors made by Sir Keir’s Labour administration at Westminster.
Asked why he was telling the PM to stay down south ahead of May’s contests, Mr Sarwar told BBC Radio 4 on Thursday: ‘I’m going to lead the election campaign, I’m our candidate for first minister, this election is about Scotland.’
‘And the best thing the Prime Minister can do, the Cabinet can do, and Government ministers across the UK can do is be behind their doors, at their desks and changing outcomes for people across the country.’
Pressed on whether Sir Keir is doing a good job as PM, Mr Sarwar replied: ‘On many measures he’s doing a good job, but I’m not going to live in denial.
‘For many people right now in the public, the Prime Minister and the UK Government is not popular.
‘I’m going to be open with people and say I’m not going to stand for first minister of Scotland in denial of that.
‘I’m telling you that I believe I can win in defiance of it. Because I’m going to make this election about Scotland.’