One health boffin said predicting the next outbreak is tricky, so it “makes sense” to focus on viruses we know are able to spill over from other animals into humans
Health experts have outlined four viruses that could spark the next pandemic as vaccine rates drop globally. Infectious disease experts say Mpox, Rubella, Bird flu and Oropouche could morph into ‘Disease X‘, the mystery pathogen that could trigger the next pandemic.
And they fear the world – and specifically the UK – is “essentially unprepared” to cope with another Covid-like outbreak of an infectious disease that spreads through the population.
Dr Michael Head, a research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton’s faculty of medicine, said: “Mpox outbreaks continue in many countries around the world, including in Europe, for example Spain.”
He told The Sun: “There are new strains emerging, and it’s increasingly clear that the virus, previously very rare, is now here to stay globally.”
The virus, formerly known as monkeypox, has cropped up sporadically in parts of Africa for decades. But since May 2022, there has been a wave of outbreaks around the world that had never seen the virus until then.
At least 100 countries were affected, including in the UK, US, Australia, mainland Europe and Canada. And towards the end of 2025, a new mutant strain of Mpox was found in England.
And Dr Head fears that Rubella – once considered a thing of the past – could make a comeback as the uptake of the MMR vaccine, which protects against measles, mumps and rubella, has hit a 15-year low after falling sharply in recent years.
It is usually a mild illness – particularly in children – but if a woman catches it during pregnancy, it can cause miscarriage, stillbirth or severe birth defects including including deafness, heart problems and intellectual disabilities.
But the low uptake of the lifesaving jab has already had shocking effects on the number of measles cases, with cases on the rise in the UK since last April, especially in the North West of England of London, resulting in the highest number of cases in England since 2012.
Measles is one of the world’s most infectious diseases, spreading when an infected person breathes, coughs or sneezes. It can cause severe disease, complications, and even death.
Meanwhile, the dreaded bird flu has been touted as a “pandemic concern” on-and-off for decades. But a “particularly nasty” strain of the avian virus (H5N1) has been aggressively killing wild birds and poultry since 2020.
And it has mutated over time so it can spread from birds to mammals like cows, which means in has since started spreading in milk.
Dr Ed Hutchinson, professor of molecular and cellular virology at the University of Glasgow, said the virus could mix with regular seasonal flu and mutate into a form that spreads easily between humans.
He told The Sun: “For as long as H5N1 is circulating and infecting humans, it will pose a pandemic risk. If this comes to pass we do have antivirals for influenza and the ability to make vaccines against new strains, but a new flu pandemic would still be a major challenge.”
The UK reported its first-ever cases of flu-like “sloth fever” last year, after growing numbers of cases in Europe, making it a growing health concern.
Officially known as Oropouche virus, the illness spread to humans through the bite of infected midges. Symptoms usually begin upto eight days after a bite and are similar to dengue and Zika and can include muscle aches, eye pain, rashes, light sensitivity and vomiting.
Professor Jackson, an infectious disease expert from the University of Virginia, wrote in The Conversation: “In 2026, Oropouche outbreaks will likely continue to affect travellers in the Americas.
“The biting midge that carries Oropouche virus is found throughout North and South America, including the southeastern United States. The range of the virus could continue to expand.”
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