US President Donald Trump is weighing up options against Iran, including targetted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protestors to overrun government buildings.
Two US sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for ‘regime change’ after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could storm government and security buildings, they said.
One of the US sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach US allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes.
The other US source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path.
The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers into the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, such strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran’s protests remained ‘heroic but outgunned’.
Protesters dancing and cheering around a bonfire in Tehran on January 9, 2026
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier (L) transits the Strait of Hormuz on November 19, 2019
US President Donald Trump is weighing up options against Iran, according to multiple sources
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future US attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites.
He described the ships in the region as an ‘armada’ sailing to Iran.
Writing on Truth Social on Wednesday, the president said: ‘A massive Armada is heading to Iran.
‘It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose. It is a larger fleet, headed by the great Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln, than that sent to Venezuela.
‘Like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing, and able to rapidly fulfil its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.
‘Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal – NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS – one that is good for all parties.
‘Time is running out, it is truly of the essence! As I told Iran once before, MAKE A DEAL! They didn’t, and there was “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a major destruction of Iran. The next attack will be far worse! Don’t make that happen again.’
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was ‘preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels’.
However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
The European Union appeared poised Thursday to sanction Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard over Tehran’s deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, further squeezing the Islamic Republic.
The move by Europe, long considered, will put new pressure on Iran as its economy already struggles under the weight of international sanctions. Its rial currency fell to a record low of 1.6 million to $1 on Thursday.
Economic woes had sparked the protests that broadened into challenging the theocracy before the crackdown.
‘This will put them on the same footing with al-Qaida, Hamas, Daesh,’ the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas said, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group. ‘If you act as a terrorist, you should also be treated as a terrorist.’
Iran had no immediate comment, but it has been criticizing Europe in recent days as it considered the move, which follows the US earlier sanctioning the Guard.
By EU law, sanctions require unanimity across the bloc’s 27 nations. That’s at times hindered Brussels’ ability to flex its economic clout to crack down on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
Tehran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue ‘based on mutual respect and interests’ but would defend itself ‘like never before’ if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, warned on X that Iran’s forces were ready to retaliate.
He said: ‘Our brave Armed Forces are prepared – with their fingers on the trigger – to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air, and sea.
‘The valuable lessons learned from the 12-Day War have enabled us to respond even more strongly, rapidly, and profoundly.
‘At the same time, Iran has always welcomed a mutually beneficial, fair and equitable NUCLEAR DEAL – on equal footing, and free from coercion, threats, and intimidation – which ensures Iran’s rights to PEACEFUL nuclear technology, and guarantees NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
‘Such weapons have no place in our security calculations and we have NEVER sought to acquire them.’
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
‘If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,’ he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would ‘have a new leader that will replace him’.
Only a combination of external pressure and an organised domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple US intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than ‘topple the regime,’ an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where US intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government.
A woman walks past an anti-American wall poster that reads ‘If you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind’, following a possible US intervention against Iran, on January 28
Iranian demonstrators gather in a street during a protest over the collapse of the currency’s value, in Tehran on January 8
Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, January 9
Families gather at the Kahrizak Coroner’s Office confronting rows of body bags as they search for relatives killed during the regime’s violent crackdown on protests, January 13
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called ‘seditionists’.
The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency has put the unrest-related death toll at 6,221, including 5,858 demonstrators, 214 government-affiliated forces, 100 children and 49 civilians who weren’t demonstrating.
The crackdown has seen over 42,300 arrests, it added.
However, Time magazine on Sunday cited two senior Iranian health ministry officials saying at least 30,000 people had been killed, while The Guardian, citing medical professionals, reported a similar figure, adding that a large number of people had disappeared.
Verification is hampered by a near-total internet shutdown now in its fourth week, as well as attempts by the regime to conceal the number of total casualties by pushing for fast, mass burials.
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said.
The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.
Newspapers in Iran’s capital Tehran prominently featured statements by US President Donald Trump suggesting that military options could be considered, January 28
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favour containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into ‘early-stage Syria,’ with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
Gulf states – long-time US allies and hosts to major American bases- fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
‘The United States may pull the trigger,’ one of the Arab sources said, ‘but it will not live with the consequences. We will.’
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the US deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponise its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a ‘grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,’ analyst Vatanka said.