Keir Starmer is fighting for his political survival as restless MPs voice their fury following the Peter Mandelson scandal – with Morgan McSweeney’s departure meaning he has lost a key ally
Here we go again.
Once more the corridors of Westminster are awash with anger, rumour and scheming as a Prime Minister fights for survival. As the Peter Mandelson crisis threatens to drag down Keir Starmer’s government, his allies are calling for cool heads.
But the PM’s critics inside the Labour Party are growing restless, and have called for him to follow chief of staff Morgan McSweeney out the door. Mr McSweeney dramatically quit on Sunday afternoon, holding his hands up for advising the PM to appoint Mandelson as ambassador to Washington.
The question is whether this will be enough. Make no mistake, many Labour MPs are very unhappy with the way things are going, and the horror over Mandelson feels like a real turning point. But Mr Starmer’s loyalists have called for him to double down and prove his critics wrong.
Here we look at how this could play out.
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So what happens now?
Well, the PM’s allies are desperately trying to hose down calls for him to quit.
This would trigger a messy leadership race, they argue, which is the last thing the country or the Labour Party needs. It would also be a gift to Nigel Farage’s Reform, which would seize on the same kind of in-fighting and instability that characterised the final years of the Tory government.
Mr Starmer will address the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday evening hoping to calm everyone down and get MPs to fall in behind him. But it’s clear that not everyone sees eye-to-eye on this, with some on the left breaking ranks and demanding his resignation. So there’s a lot riding on the meeting later today.
Will the PM quit?
No10 insists it is business as usual and the PM is going nowhere.
The policy agenda has not changed after Mr McSweeney’s departure, and the PM moved swiftly to appoint his deputies – Vidhya Alakeson and Jill Cuthbertson – as joint chiefs-of-staff on an interim basis.
Last week Mr Starmer faced questions about his future and insisted he is here to stay. The general election feels like a long time ago, but he promised a ‘decade of national renewal’ when he took power, and his allies insist that has not changed.
However two unnamed Cabinet ministers told The Times that Mr Starmer was “weaker” and “could stand down at any moment”. This was dismissed as “categorically untrue” by Downing Street.
What are the big dangers the Prime Minister faces?
Mr Starmer will be hoping he can get through the week without any ministerial resignations.
If a cabinet member decides to take a stand, things could get messy very quickly for him. As we saw with Boris Johnson, senior figures walking out and criticising their leader can be incredibly destabilising.
No10 will be keeping a very close eye out for danger signs, with a charm offensive to win over anyone who might be wavering. The rumour mill is working overtime, but thus far no one has walked out over the Mandelson revelations, which Mr Starmer will take heart from.
How would a leadership challenge work?
Mr Starmer’s future may be determined by the 403 other Labour MPs in Parliament.
It would take 81 of them – 20% of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) – to write the General Secretary of the party to launch a leadership challenge. Even though dissenters are breaking ranks, reaching 80 willing to roll the dice is a tall order at the moment.
And making the first move is incredibly dangerous – any serious contender would have to think long and hard about leading the charge. A defeat could be a career-ender, and most will be wary of being branded disloyal or an opportunist.
But as mentioned above, things can unravel very quickly.
Who might succeed the PM?
In the gossipy circles of Westminster, several names are being touted around.
According to bookmakers Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband, Wes Streeting and Shabana Mahmood are the favourites. Outsiders include Yvette Cooper, Al Carns, Lucy Powell and Sir Chris Bryant. But the odds will change quickly if and when there is a race to bet on.
Despite reports Ms Rayner is “ready” for a challenge, she is still waiting for HMRC to conclude its probe into unpaid taxes on her seaside home in Hove. The issue led to her resignation as Deputy PM last year. Allies of Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, have also repeatedly denied and rubbished claims he will challenge Mr Starmer for the keys to No10. King of the North Andy Burnham was also blocked from standing as an MP – ruling out his chances of running for the top job.
What about the by-election?
If he has not been toppled by February 26, the PM will be desperately hoping Gorton and Denton does not fall.
Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from standing, sparking anger among his supporters. It ramps up the pressure on Mr Starmer massively.
Failure could be disastrous, with both the Greens and Reform snapping at Labour’s heels – despite it previously being a safe seat.. Mr Starmer’s hold over the party depends on him showing he can win, and MPs will hold him responsible if that does not happen.
Victory would buy him some time, but failure could open the doors to a challenge. Even if the PM overcomes this hurdle,. elections in May are looking increasingly difficult.
Many assume that if it has not happened by then, a leadership challenge is almost inevitable in the aftermath of the May elections.
Will the Mandelson files help?
Mr Starmer’s political agony is being prolonged by the release of files relating to Mandelson’s appointment as the UK’s ambassador to the US.
No10 believes the documents will show the Labour veteran lied to the PM’s team over his friendship to Epstein during the vetting process. But Downing Street lost control of the process during scenes of chaos earlier last week – handing over power to Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee.
All minutes of meetings, electronic communications, including WhatsApps, between Lord Mandelson, senior ministers and special advisers must be handed over. The ISC will then decide what will be publicly released but the process could take many weeks to sift through potentially thousands of documents.
There is also the added problem of the Met Police, which has requested documents are not released that could undermine its probe of Lord Mandelson. It means many weeks of uncertainty and more damaging headlines for No10.