Having trust issues just after Valentine’s Day is not a good thing.
You think cupid’s arrow has struck and then the doubts creep in.
Punters are looking for love. No, not that type of stuff. A horse to back with confidence in the Champion Hurdle of course.
Yes, many observers have pointed out what a horrible renewal this race will be at the Cheltenham Festival in just under a month’s time. But the flip side of it is that it makes for an intriguing betting puzzle.
There will be a great deal of internal satisfaction in finding the Champion Hurdle winner, with doubts over the whole field and 5-2 the field.
It’s far more interesting than yesterday’s racing in negotiating a raft of very short odds-on favourites in uncompetitive ‘graded’ races with three or four runners. It’s just not a great spectacle.
Brighterdaysahead won the Irish Champion Hurdle two weeks ago
But her best form is away from Cheltenham and that is a concern ahead of the Champion Hurdle
The New Lion is also at the head of the Champion Hurdle but does he have enough speed?
So let’s find some love for a Champion Hurdle that’s endured plenty of heartbreak already, particularly for owners Joe and Marie Donnelly.
State Man fell at the last when looking a ready winner of this race last year and was ruled out for the season with an injury very early on in the campaign. He’d have been a major contender to win his second Champion Hurdle.
The same owners had an able deputy in Sir Gino. He was magnificent in defeating reigning champion Golden Ace with ease at Kempton on his seasonal reappearance at Christmas. But he suffered a fractured pelvis on Trials Day and is out for the season and perhaps won’t be seen on a racetrack again.
The winner on Trials Day was The New Lion, who is disputing favouritism with Brighterdaysahead. Let’s deal with the former first.
The major doubt about The New Lion is whether he possesses enough speed to be a top two-miler and the jury is firmly out on that score. The thing is the race might be weak enough for him to overcome that obvious concern.
He won the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Festival over five furlongs further and the way he saw the trip out that day suggested his future would be over three miles and not two.
The Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle was a curious affair. He didn’t like leading and fell at the second last when the race looked like it would be between him and Golden Ace. But he also equally looked uncomfortable in jumping at speed.
On Trials Day, The New Lion did fairly well to overcome Nemean Lion and Brentford Hope up the run-in on a slowly-run race but beating those two by around two lengths isn’t Champion Hurdle form.
Trainer Gordon Elliott (right) has offered up excuses for Brighterdaysahead’s Cheltenham losses
And the last two hurdles when the race developed after Sir Gino pulled up, The New Lion was losing ground in the air to his two inferior rivals. He’ll simply be unable to do that in a Champion Hurdle. But he’s a young horse on the up and Dan Skelton’s gelding still has a big chance in an open year.
There’s no doubts about Brighterdaysahead’s speed. Gordon Elliott’s mare was excellent in the Irish Champion Hurdle but the problem with her is that she’s been to the Cheltenham Festival twice before and disappointed on both occasions.
She was beaten in the Mares Novices’ Hurdle and never travelled in last year’s Champion Hurdle. Elliott has offered up excuses for both reversals.
The jockeys on Brighterdaysahead and Jade De Grugy went too slow and were watching each other two years ago, which enabled Golden Ace to slip them and win.
In last year’s Champion Hurdle, Elliott insisted she was never right and found a niggling knee injury afterwards that was probably annoying her beforehand.
But it’s equally plausible that Brighterdaysahead simply doesn’t like the track. She’s the same price as The New Lion and punters must weigh up whether the lack of speed of The New Lion or the Cheltenham concerns around Brighterdaysahead are the greater concern.
Personally, I believe that The New Lion’s deficiencies are deeper and the mare also gets a 7lb allowance. If forced to back one or the other at this stage at 5-2 the pair, I’d side with Brighterdaysahead.
Constitution Hill has plenty to prove, particularly in the jumping department
Both make more appeal than third in the market Constitution Hill (11-2). His imminent prep run in a £40k at Southwell on Friday is about as interesting to me as that bloke who hasn’t had his hair cut for 500 days because Manchester United haven’t won five games in a row.
Ironically enough, it’s almost been that length of time since Constitution Hill ran with any sort of credit.
Since January 25 last year when he won on Trials Day, he’s fallen in three of his last four races and the sole completion was a deplorable effort at Punchestown when he was reluctant to start.
His jumping has plainly gone to pot and we’ll learn nothing on that trust score in his Southwell spin on the All-Weather.
The fact trainer Nicky Henderson is non-committal about the Champion Hurdle suggests that his deep-rooted jumping issues are still there. He’s rated 170 and the best horse in the race all things equal. But he fell as 1-2 favourite last year. Fell at Aintree and did likewise at Newcastle in the Fighting Fifth this year very early on.
It’s become a painful watch seeing a horse inexplicably crash to the deck who has such universal appeal on past exploits and connections of Constitution Hill face a huge decision in whether to persist with this. How much more can you really endure?
Then there’s the typical will she-won’t she Lossiemouth debacle. Given how the 2025 Champion Hurdle panned out, it would have been a formality for the Willie Mullins-trained mare.
But instead of going for gold, they were content with the next best thing. After a fall in the Irish Champion Hurdle, connections opted to win a second Mares’ Hurdle on the trot and she duly obliged.
The Exchanges suggest the same route will be taken again. Beaten by Brighterdaysahead last month, that slightly below-par effort might be enough to play it safe and go for the Mares.
But with no State Man in the Champion Hurdle picture, Lossiemouth (6-1) is undisputably the best Champion Hurdle contender in the Mullins camp and No 1 jockey Paul Townend would be on board, which owner Rich Ricci sees as a priority.
Lossiemouth would have a big chance but looks more likely now to run in the Mares’ Hurdle
Poniros won the Triumph Hurdle last year but has plenty to find in a Champion Hurdle
Then there’s defending champion Golden Ace. She picked up the pieces in the Champion Hurdle last year and won the Fighting Fifth. Perhaps this is an improving mare who simply isn’t getting the credit she deserves.
Reliable? Yes. But is she really good enough and will things pan out so favourably again? The fact she’s 7-1 and fifth in the market means she might not be.
Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Poniros (16-1) made a satisfactory reappearance when third in the Irish Champion Hurdle. He’s entitled to improve for that but the five-year-old has at least 10lbs to find on figures.
His Mullins stablemate Anzadam (20-1) needs to settle in his races to fulfil his potential but doesn’t fully convince at the business end of his races. They both have outside place claims at best.
Ballyburn will surely be saved for Aintree, while the Joe Tizzard-trained Alexei won the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton yesterday he wasn’t impressive in doing so.
He still needs a stone of improvement to figure.
This is a wide open Champion Hurdle and each contender has their pros and cons. It’s a case of who do you trust the most?