Heir to the throne: North Korea faces brutal succession battle between Kim Jong Un’s daughter and sister, official warns

North Korea could face a brutal power struggle in the event of Kim Jong-un‘s death involving his daughter and sister, a former intelligence official has warned.

The leader is the third generation, after his father and grandfather, to have ruled the communist state and it looks increasingly likely that he intends to pass the baton of power to his daughter, Kim Ju-ae, believed to be 13.

South Korea´s spy agency told the country’s parliament on Thursday that it believes the teenager is close to being designated as the country´s future leader as he moves to extend the family dynasty to a fourth generation.

But those plans could be thwarted by his ambitious sister Kim Yo Jong, who is said to be planning to seize control for herself should the dictator die or become incapacitated. 

Yo Jong, 38, is well-respected within political and military ranks and is widely seen as the most powerful person in North Korea after Jong-un.  

Rah Jong-yil, the former South Korean ambassador to the UK and deputy director of Seoul’s intelligence service, told The Telegraph he believes a struggle for power after Jong-Un dies ‘is probable’. 

He said: ‘It depends on the timing, but I believe if Kim Yo Jong believed that she had a chance of becoming the top leader then she would take it.

‘For her, there are no reasons to refrain from putting into effect her own political project.’

Neither would there likely be much mercy shown in the event aunt and niece clash over who should rule the nation next, given previous events.

Just two years after Kim took power in 2011, he had his uncle and mentor, Jang Song-thaek, arrested over allegations of having committed ‘anti-party, counter-revolutionary factional acts’.

The charges included illicit affairs with women, harboring ‘politically-motivated ambition’, weakening ‘the party’s guidance over judicial, prosecution and people’s security bodies’ and obstructing ‘the nation’s economic affairs’.

He was later executed by firing squad in 2013.

Meanwhile, Jong Un’s older half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, fell out of favour with the dictator and was subsequently assassinated by having VX nerve agent smeared onto his face in Kuala Lumpur airport in 2017.

It is widely believed he died on the orders of the North Korean government.

Now the National Intelligence Service (NIS) in South Korea said during a closed-door briefing that they are closely monitoring whether Jong Un’s daughter appears with him before thousands of delegates at the upcoming Workers´ Party Congress.

First appearing in public at a long-range missile test in November 2022, Ju Ae has since accompanied her father to an increasing number of events, including weapons tests, military parades and factory openings. 

She travelled with him to Beijing last September for Jong Un’s first summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in six years on the sidelines of a Second World War event.

Speculation about her political future intensified last month when she joined her parents on a New Year´s Day visit to Pyongyang´s Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, a sacred family mausoleum displaying the embalmed bodies of her late grandfather and great-grandfather, the country´s first- and second-generation leaders. 

Some experts saw the visit as the clearest sign yet that she´s positioned to be the heir to her 42-year-old father.

South Korean officials initially expressed doubt that she could be chosen as a North Korean leader, citing the country´s deeply conservative culture and tradition of male-dominated leadership. 

But her increasingly prominent appearances in state media have prompted a reassessment. 

In its previous assessment of Ju Ae´s status in September, the NIS told lawmakers that Jong Un´s decision to bring her along on his trip to China was likely part of an effort to build a ‘narrative’ to pave the way for her succession.

‘In the past, (NIS) described Kim Ju Ae as being in the midst of `successor training.´ What was notable today is that they used the term `successor-designate stage,´ a shift that’s quite significant,’ said lawmaker Lee Seong Kweun, who attended the briefing.

According to Lee, the agency cited her growing presence at high-profile military events, her inclusion in the family visit to Kumsusan, and signs that Jong Un was beginning to seek her input on certain policy matters.

In 2023, South Korea´s spy agency told lawmakers that Kim Jong Un and his wife also likely have an older son and a younger third child whose gender is unknown.

Since its foundation in 1948, North Korea has been ruled by male members of the Kim family, beginning with the country´s founder Kim Il Sung and followed by his son, Kim Jong Il.

Jong Un was just 26 when he was officially named heir during a 2010 party conference, two years after Kim Jong Il suffered a debilitating stroke. 

Following his father´s death in December 2011, he was abruptly thrust into the throne with relatively little preparation.

Some analysts suggest that Jong Un´s decision to debut his daughter early possibly reflects his own experience of being rushed into power.

Ju Ae´s first known visit to Kumsusan last month was also her father´s first visit to the site in three years. 

Given the palace´s status as a key symbol of the Kim family rule, the trip should be seen as a symbolic gesture by Kim Jong Un to present his daughter as his heir before his grandfather and father as he prepares for the major ruling party congress, said Cheong Seong-Chang, a senior analyst at South Korea´s Sejong Institute.

The Workers´ Party congress in late February, last held in 2016 and 2021, could provide a stage for Jong Un to formalize his succession plans, possibly by giving his daughter the party´s first secretary post, its number two job, although such a decision might not be immediately disclosed to the outside world, Cheong said.

Other analysts question whether she would receive such a high-profile post or any formal party role, given that party rules require members to be at least 18 – and argue that Yo Jongwould be more likely to succeed in the immediate term.

Ju-ae or her siblings ‘are still too young and unestablished to realistically be considered for succession in the coming five to 15 years’, a report from analysis publication 38 North explained.