Republicans Are Scrambling To Avert A ‘Massacre’ In Texas Senate Race

AUSTIN, Texas – Seven months and $60 million later, Senate Republicans’ efforts to rescue one of their caucus’ leading members have proven totally ineffective, driving worries the party could lose a statewide election in Texas for the first time in three decades and give Democrats another pathway to claiming a Senate majority.

Despite getting massively outspent in the final weeks before the March 3 primary, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading the GOP race to replace longtime incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in a contest that’s likely to go to a runoff next month. An underwhelming performance by Cornyn might seal his fate before that even happens, so he’s stepping up his attacks against Paxton this week, predicting an electoral bloodbath for the GOP should the ethically challenged, far-right Paxton become the nominee.

“We will have an Election Day massacre,” Cornyn warned at an early voting kickoff event on Tuesday. “Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like our corrupt attorney general hung around their neck. If Ken Paxton is at the top of the ticket, we risk losing the Senate seat, losing the majority in the House of Representatives, and it will take a toll on everybody on the ballot.”

“Complacency is a killer,” he added. “Complacency kills relationships, it kills careers, it kills countries, and it kills great political parties, like the Republican Party right here in Texas.”

The 74-year-old senator, who is seeing his fifth term in the Senate, is hoping GOP primary voters in Texas will be moved by appeals to ethics and propriety in the age of Trump, a two-time divorcee who was twice impeached by a Democrat-controlled U.S. House of Representatives. Paxton was impeached in 2023 by the GOP-controlled Texas House for bribery and abuse of office. His wife also divorced him last year on “biblical grounds,” including accusations of adultery. But Trump has stood by the conservative hardliner, dismissing his impeachment as “unfair” and a “disgrace.” He’s even floated him as a possible candidate for U.S. attorney general.

Asked this week about the primary, Trump disappointed Republicans by declining to throw Cornyn a lifeline. He said instead that he supports “all three” candidates, including Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas), another Trump ally running for the seat.

Polls have consistently shown Paxton leading the race, however, and there’s little evidence that the tens of millions Cornyn’s allies have spent on the race so far have swayed voters. A poll of likely primary voters from the University of Houston released last week showed Paxton at 38%, Cornyn at 31% and Hunt at 17%. The poll also showed Cornyn, who’s never been loved by the GOP base due to his record working across the aisle, losing to Paxton by 11 points in a runoff election.

The outcome could reverberate beyond Texas: Operatives in both parties believe Cornyn would be a heavy favorite in November while Paxton would put GOP control of the seat at risk, especially if state Rep. James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination. Democrats do not see a victory in Texas as a key part of their path to a Senate majority in 2026, but a victory there would open up more ways for them to reach the 51 seats required.

That’s how Republicans, including super PACs controlled by allies of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, have justified spending $60 million to stop Paxton’s campaign, arguing that doing so will save them from having to spend $100 million or more to bail out a weaker candidate in November.

The problem? The spending so far has had little effect. The barrage may backfire, as it has allowed Paxton to position himself as an anti-establishment candidate taking on special interests in Washington.

“His money is coming from the D.C. establishment, and that’s how he can afford these commercials, and that’s how they always try to convince us in Washington, with their money that we should select their person,” Paxton said this week at an event in Tyler, Texas. “Well, I’m not their person, and I will never be their person. I’m going to stay here and fight for you all.”

“They’re spending millions to convince you he’s done things he hasn’t and that he’s supported Trump the whole time. It’s not true,” he added.

Paxton, 63, has done relatively few public events so far. He’s not a dynamic speaker, and when he does appear on the campaign trail, he can seem stiff and awkward. But conservatives love his record fighting President Barack Obama’s administration during his three terms as Texas attorney general, and his legal efforts challenging Trump’s loss in the 2020 presidential election. Much of the $60 million has gone towards television ads questioning Paxton’s ethics and highlighting his divorce, but his supporters don’t seem to care.

“I like his ethics,” said Molly Deems, a retired teacher who showed up to hear Paxton speak at a restaurant in Tyler on Tuesday. “I think he’s very strong. He knows what the Constitution says and that he will do what he says he’s going to do.”

“Divorce should not matter,” she added of Paxton’s personal life. “I don’t think that should ever matter. A man’s private life is man’s private life. It’s what he does when he’s in that office.”

“I’d like a change. Cornyn has been there for 20 years,” added Ivan Sturgeon, another Tyler native who is still deciding whether to support Paxton or Hunt.

Hunt, a 43-year-old U.S. Army veteran from Houston, entered the race late last year, angering top Republicans who believe his candidacy will split the primary electorate and ultimately help Paxton win the nomination. The two-term congressman has drawn criticism for his extended absences from Washington, where he’s missed critical votes, giving Republican leadership headaches as they struggle with a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

Senate Republicans who are supporting Cornyn also worry that an ugly primary in Texas will hurt the GOP’s efforts to hold on to his Senate seat, as well as other more competitive Senate races around the country.

“It just means we end up spending a lot more resources that then can’t be used in other races, that are really tough races,” Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told HuffPost.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), meanwhile, complained about what he called a “horrible” decision by Turning Point USA to endorse Paxton. The conservative political group founded by Charlie Kirk is popular with Trump supporters, particularly those on college campuses.

“Whoever thought that was a good idea really doesn’t understand the headwinds that we’ve got to deal with,” Tillis said.

At Cornyn’s campaign event in Austin on Tuesday, which was held at a Tex-Mex restaurant, dozens of mostly older and wealthier supporters gathered to hear him speak about the race. He touted his seniority in the Senate and ability to bring billions of dollars home as reasons why Texas can’t afford to switch to a new face in Washington right now. He also shrugged off questions about Trump’s decision not to endorse him.

“The president knows he can trust me to be there to support him and his agenda, and I appreciate that, but it’s going to be up to him to make that call,” Cornyn said. “I think he kind of likes a good fight, and he’s going to see one right here in Texas.”

Randy Hickel, a doctor from Lubbock, Texas, who’s supporting Cornyn, said he worried about the direction of his party, particularly if it ends up nominating somebody like Paxton, who has a record of questioning science and the efficacy of vaccines.

“I am disappointed at some of the things that we’re all witnessing in the Republican Party,” Hickel told HuffPost. “And it’s not just a philosophical shift further to the right. It’s some of the people that are being advocated for.”

“I don’t like the anti-science movement that’s afoot that denies clear evidence,” he added. “It’s hard to be on the side that’s denying scientific evidence. Can there be a polarization or politicization of interpretation of data? Sure. To deny science is regrettable.”

Former Texas GOP Gov. Rick Perry, who also attended the event and spoke in support of his reelection, said he couldn’t even fathom what he would do if Paxton wins the nomination next month.

“I have no idea. What are we going to do if aliens come down before the election?” he asked rhetorically.