New analysis shows World Cup football supporters are balancing national pride with strategic thinking ahead of the tournament, with England fans backing Spain to go all the way this summer
German fans may be backing England for the World Cup – but Three Lions’ supporters are tipping Spain. We told how German diplomatic sources believe many Deutschlanders will follow England at this summer’s soccer showpiece.
Three Lions’ boss Thomas Tuchel is German, captain Harry Kane is a Bayern Munich hero and the two nations share a mutual love of beer and darts.
But bookies have upset the odds by revealing most England fans are backing Spain. New analysis shows UK supporters are balancing national pride with strategic thinking ahead of the tournament.
Research by sports analytics firm Betmaster of UK Gambling Commission-licenced bookmakers found Three Lions’ fans ‘aren’t just backing England’.
The firm’s sports analytics expert Robert Mardisalu said: “It’s safe to say we’re all excited about the World Cup.
“Tournaments like this bring out a mix of emotion, national pride, and optimism, and England will always have huge support from fans across the UK.
“But when people place a bet the psychology shifts slightly.
“While national loyalty remains strong UK wagering data shows bettors are spreading their stakes across traditional heavyweights and proven tournament performers.”
The tournament’s expanded 48-team format ‘appears to be encouraging a more cautious, diversified approach’, they added.
Based on UK betting patterns Spain are favourites to lift the trophy followed by England, France, Brazil, Argentina and Portugal.
Germany are only seventh – ahead of the Netherlands, fancied long-shots Norway and Italy who have not even qualified yet.
The Betmaster spokesman said there were ‘several behavioural and strategic reasons’ England fans may support other teams.
They include recent near-misses – the Lions’ strong tournament performances without lifting trophies – unpredictability due to the bigger World Cup format and fears over squad depth and star power.
Robert said: “Many bettors separate emotional support from financial decision-making, backing England with their hearts but choosing statistically stronger favourites with their heads.
“Supporters might hope England go all the way yet many still look at recent performances, squad depth, and overall consistency before deciding where their money goes.
“When you look at the odds and how people respond to them, you can see that bettors tend to favour teams with a strong track record in major tournaments.
“Countries like Spain, France, and Brazil consistently reach the latter stages and that history carries weight.
“England are clearly in the conversation. But bettors are also aware of how unpredictable knockout football can be, especially in a tournament as big as the World Cup.
“The expanded format also adds another layer of uncertainty.
“With more teams involved and more possible match-ups it becomes harder to predict a clear path to the final.
“That usually leads people to spread their bets or lean toward teams that have repeatedly proven they can handle tournament pressure.
“So while plenty of fans will be cheering England on it’s interesting to see how the data shows people balancing that loyalty with a more strategic approach.”