Manchester City could face a record points deduction if found guilty of the most serious charges levelled against them by the Premier League, with a verdict expected in the coming months
Manchester City could face a record deduction of between 40 and 60 points if found guilty of the most severe allegations levelled against them, a football finance expert has warned.
City and the Premier League remain in limbo awaiting the outcome regarding 115 alleged financial violations by the club spanning 2009 to 2018, during which time they won three Premier League titles. While commonly described as 115 charges, there could be as many as 130 potential breaches.
The tribunal examining City’s supposed breaches of the Premier League’s financial regulations wrapped up in December 2024 after a 12-week hearing, but the independent panel is still yet to reveal its findings. City deny all allegations and are believed to be optimistic about vindication.
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It has now been 14 months since the hearing concluded and the commission continues its deliberations. Football finance specialist Kieran Maguire has monitored the proceedings closely and estimates around 500,000 pieces of evidence were submitted by both sides during the tribunal.
Maguire anticipates a ruling within the coming months, with City and the Premier League expected to receive 24 hours’ advance warning before any public announcement, reports the Mirror. He notes that while forecasting the result remains impossible, examining recent cases demonstrates how momentous the consequences could prove should things go against City.
Maguire explained on The Overlap Fan Debate: “The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that’s an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL, so therefore it has to be a points deduction.
“If we take a look at precedents, we’ve had Everton and Nottingham Forest with six and four-point deductions for a single offence covering a three-year period. The accusations against Manchester City cover a nine-year period, so it’s far bigger. The numbers involved, we’re not certain about, but they’re likely to be quite significant.
“So I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen from Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would, I think, on merit, be consistent with what we’ve seen from other decisions on logic. If they want to go further then we don’t know the severity.”
“In the cases of both Forest and Everton, they were to do with FFP [Financial Fair Play] purely. The accusations against Manchester City are why it’s taking so long. Corporate fraud is a very serious accusation. The board of directors would have to go. How can you be in a meeting room with other members of the Premier League and the Premier League itself, of whom you’re a shareholder, with this accusation being proven?
“If you take a look at what happened with Juventus in Serie A, their board had to resign when they were claiming things about player wages that were proven to be untrue. I think there’s an honesty thing here, if Manchester City are proven to be guilty. And that could mean a complete restructure of the club.”
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Considerable frustration has mounted regarding the hold-up, which stems from the case’s complexity and the requirement for the three-member panel to reach a collective decision.
“[Judging] by the cases similar to a fraud case, I think we’re probably into the final reaches of getting a decision,” Maguire added. “I think part of the challenge is that, because there are three very senior people on the call for making that final judgement, getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult and that has delayed the case.
“It should be resolved in the next few months, but we’ve said this before. But there’s an awful lot of evidence to go through and the charges are very very serious so you’ve got to have enough evidence.”