Air strikes triggering war between Pakistan and Afghanistan are terrible timing as the window for a Washington decision on US attacks on Iran narrows and conflict may be imminent
War between Pakistan and Afghanistan comes after months of tension over accusations the Taliban has been exporting terror into its neighbour.
This is the most volatile and dangerous flare-up between the two neighbours in decades and it could not come at a worse time for world stability. It is all against a terrible backdrop of tensions over Russia’s war on Ukraine and the US threatening strikes on Iran.
The irony of both Russia and Iran urging both sides to stand down and stop killing each other cannot be lost in the confusion of this growing conflict. This is because the window for a US decision on air-strikes on Iran is narrowed to such a degree that war in the Middle East could be imminent.
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Iran has not agreed to US demands on its nuclear strategy and the world’s largest warship the carrier USS Gerald R Ford is now arriving off Israel some time today. Meanwhile an entire carrier strike force on USS Abraham Lincoln is preparing for the possibility of strikes on Iran in the Arabian Sea and squadrons of fighter jets are primed in the Middle East.
Just how war and air-strikes between Pakistan and Afghanistan will distract from this tension or even add to it remains to be seen. Pakistan launched overnight air-strikes on Kabul and other Afghan cities after months of rising tension between the two countries.
It has suffered a year of incredibly violent terror attacks which it claims were plotted and launched by groups supported from within Afghanistan. Border clashes between Pakistan’s military and the Taliban in recent months have all led to this explosion of violence between the two.
The Afghan Taliban have tanks, artillery and light arms, whilst Pakistan is a nuclear power with a large military which means Kabul is likely to launch guerilla and terror attacks. Pakistan has long had a dual view towards its war-torn neighbour, outwardly promoting the idea of peace whilst unofficially enjoying the extension of Islamic militancy and power.
Central to the war is Pakistan’s claim Afghanistan is sheltering Tehreek-e-Taliban – the TTP – which is a powerful terror group which Islamabad claims is launching attacks inside Pakistan. The Taliban of course denies this but groups such as the affiliated gangster-militant network Haqqani network – dubbed the Sopranos of Afghanistan – are thriving in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
They have also historically enjoyed various degrees of contact and even support from the shadowy Pakistani spy network the Inter Services Intelligence agency. Afghanistan has long been considered by Pakistan a kind of backdoor extension of Islamic influence in the region, away from Pakistan’s bitter enemy India.
Pakistan enjoys the strategic depth of influence Afghanistan offered it, also acting as an Islamic buffer that stops India from surrounding it. One security source from the region told me: “Pakistan needs Afghanistan as a stop gap, preventing what it fears most – encirclement by India.
“It also offers Pakistan some kind of comfort as an Islamic country and neighbour with a natural enmity towards interference from the outside world. Even though Pakistan has most recently suffered terrorism it has in the past enjoyed the chaos of Afghanistan because it meant secretly it could also have some element of control on it.”
A contact with Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence agency links once revealed to me that Pakistan intelligence considered Afghanistan almost like a backdoor escape route for them, an extension of Islamic power pivoting away from tension with its neighbour India. Pakistan strikes on Kabul and Kandahar are the latest in a series of clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, despite both nations agreeing to a fragile ceasefire in October 2025.
It comes after the Taliban take over of Afghanistan in 2021, which was largely supported by Pakistan as it saw the end of western influence there. Amid rising tensions with India Pakistan saw its links to Afghanistan as vital for its security but now wants to clamp down on the terror threat.