The US and Israel have launched strikes against Iran, with the Islamic Republic launching counterattacks, in a rapidly developing conflict that is spilling out into the wider region
This morning, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, to which the Islamic Republic swiftly responded, in a conflict that is rapidly spilling over to the wider region. In the swiftly developing situation, explosions have been reported in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait.
Tensions have been building in the region for weeks, with President Donald Trump moving what he dubbed an “armada” of military force to the region. The US has called the operation “Epic Fury”, and the President told Iranians in a video statement to “take over” their government when the conflict ends, saying: “It will be yours to take. This will be, probably, your only chance for generations.”
Diplomatic nuclear negotiations have been stalling between US and Iran recently, with Trump saying in his statement that the Islamic Republic has “rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions” as a justification for the “massive and ongoing operation” against Iran, which has reportedly included a strike that hit the office of the Supreme Leader, as plumes of smoke have been seen over Tehran.
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The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has launched retaliatory strikes, according to the Israeli Defence Force, marking that for the second time in less than a year, direct conflict has broken out between the two countries. Airlines have been turning planes headed to the Middle East around, and some have halted flights to the region altogether.
The UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office has told Brits in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE to “immediately shelter in place” and to “Remain indoors in a secure location, avoid all travel, and follow instructions from the local authorities.”
Here’s everything you need to know about the principal players in the Middle East conflict – and why they matter so much.
Donald Trump – USA
Trump has said that American citizens may die during the conflict, but that “we will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.” He accused Iran of “mass terror” and called it the “world’s number one state sponsor of terror” in his statement about Operation Epic Fury. He also cited widespread protests that took place earlier this year in the country, which were violently repressed by the regime.
He urged Iranians who want a change of regime to take advantage of the conflict, saying: “For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want, so let’s see how you respond. America is backing you with overwhelming strength and devastating force. Now is the time to seize control of your destiny and to unleash the prosperous and glorious future that is close within your reach. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.”
Last year, when conflict broke out between Israel and the US against Iran, world leaders urged de-escalation, but Donald Trump launched US military action of its own. Dubbed Operation Midnight, three strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo – were carried out, involving 125 US aircraft.
Trump has claimed the US inflicted “monumental damage” to the nuclear sites, and the US asserted this severely set back Iran’s nuclear programme; however, less than a year later, the potential nuclear capabilities of Iran have been used again as a justification for war. Last June, a leaked intelligence report from the Pentagon suggested the damage was far less substantial, and the Iranians still retained the capacity to develop a nuclear weapon within months, something Trump dismissed at the time as “fake news”.
Iran retaliated with strikes on a US military base in Qatar, in what numerous analysts have described as a “choreographed” manoeuvre, where prior warning of the attack was provided to prevent casualties. This has been characterised as a “face-saving” exercise by Iran, with one expert noting: “By keeping its military action contained, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gifted Trump an off-ramp” and enabled de-escalation.
None of these armed confrontations, which are presently balanced on the brink of further escalation, has emerged from nowhere. Trump told reporters outside The Hague last year about the relationship between Israel and Iran, “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f**k they are doing.”
Benjamin Netanyahu – Israel
Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu have long been regarded as a crucial ally in the Middle East for the UK and the US, with expert Dr Alexander Gilder – Associate Professor of International Law and Security at the University of Reading – telling The Mirror: “Israel provides a friendly foothold in the Middle East to deter states, like Iran, that the West have long-standing ideological differences with.
“For example, the US operates early missile warning systems in Israel, which is strategically important for monitoring missile launches from Iran.” The US supplies Israel with more than $3 billion annually in aid – yet the perception of Israel’s significance to the West is diminishing for some.
“The question is whether Israel is still a close ally of the great Western European democracies, and in my view, it is no longer one,” Professor Anthony Glees, from the University of Buckinghamshire, told the Mirror. “Israel has moved away from us by leaps and bounds. Its values right now are not shared by many of us here in the UK. Brits have always believed in fairness. We think that what’s right for the Jews in the Middle East and beyond, to have their own state, must also apply to the Palestinians.”
Despite the nation’s strategic value to the US, Professor Glees explained that European populations are gradually becoming more detached from Israel. “Israel, though a very small country, used to be a key ally in the Middle East because it was the only true liberal democracy in the region and its political, economic and cultural values were European,” he explained.
“But over the years since the state was founded, it has become less European in outlook and more extreme and more embattled: the hardcore nationalists like Netanyahu have gained in power over the more traditional centre and centre-left parties, and they’ve been egged on by hardline groups, whose numbers have been swollen by immigrants from the USA and Russia.
“Like Putin, like Xi and indeed like Trump in the new world order, Netanyahu fits in well. Like the three of them, Netanyahu believes in being strong but also being a land-grabber. Security for all of them comes not just from guns and bullets, nor nuclear weapons that they cannot use (unless they want to commit suicide), but by the acquisition of land that is not theirs.”
The expert cited Trump’s suggestions about annexing Canada and Greenland into the US, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Xi Jinping’s assertion that China will inevitably reclaim Taiwan as examples. “This is why Netanyahu will never agree to an independent state of Palestine, which has been our policy for many years.
“In short, Israel is no longer the country it was even 25 years ago. It too is now ruled by a strong man, and it’s easy to see why the USA today feels so close to Israel,” said Professor Glees. Israel’s values and culture were, as a nation, the most closely aligned with those of the West in the Middle East for an extended period.
Dr Nick Westcott – Professor of Practice at SOAS Department of Politics and International Studies, and previously a diplomat and director of the Royal African Society – stated, “Historically a lot of Israelis came from Europe, refugees from the Holocaust. So they were culturally very close to Europe and the US” and reinforced Professor Glees’ views that “Israel’s democratic traditions also made it feel close to the West.”
Nevertheless, the expert observed: “This has changed over time, as Israeli culture has become more orthodox and more influenced by Sephardic (Middle Eastern) Jewish traditions, and newer immigration from the US.” That represents a crucial factor in grasping the differences in public perception internationally between the Islamic Republic of Iran and that of Israel, because, naturally, what appears more familiar to us in the UK will be simpler for most people to connect with.
Ali Khamenei – Iran
Iran and Ali Khamenei’s image continues to suffer from Western attitudes towards “the Orient”, according to Dr Westcott, which represents the mysterious East, Islamic fundamentalism, political absolutism and so forth. “Iranian culture is much richer, more ancient, more complex and more accountable, but many in the US and Europe don’t find it so accessible.”
Iran has often been labelled as an “apocalyptic death cult” by numerous analysts, and it indeed exhibits many characteristics of a backward, deeply religious regime. Dissidents have been subjected to torture in prison, British nationals accused of spying and detained, and in 2022, widespread protests erupted following the killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, who was alleged to have violated rules mandating women to don a headscarf.
A UN investigative team concluded that Iran’s morality police were accountable for the “physical violence” leading to her death “as a result of beatings”. Massive demonstrations ensued in the wake of her death, during which the harsh response from Iranian security forces resulted in over 500 protestors losing their lives, coupled with allegations of sexual violence perpetrated against demonstrators as well as “branding” them by shooting them in the eye.
Israel’s Prime Minister has urged opposition in Iran to seize the conflict as an opportunity to topple the regime; however, Trump has expressed his disinterest in regime change, arguing that it would lead to “chaos”. Whilst Professor Glees voiced strong criticism of the Iranian regime to The Mirror, he clarified that his views on the country’s government did not make him “feel closer to the Israelis than to the Iranians”.
The expert stated: “Many of us know Iranian exiles, we have been moved by Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, by the fact that the ayatollahs allow the rape of women routinely in their gaols, they hang gays from cranes in Tehran and have a country which is without doubt a crucible of terror in the region. But also, as MI5 has told us, brews up plots against us here in the UK.
“But we are smart enough to distinguish between the Iranian people and those who have ruled them since 1979. We know that they are controlled entirely by the ruthless and bloodthirsty ayatollahs. We admire Iranians for their culture, where it still exists, and would gladly travel to a free Iran.”
Are there any good guys in this conflict?
Both Israel and Iran prove divisive, and there can be an understandable temptation to label one side as the ‘good guys’ and the other as ‘bad’ – but experts unanimously agree this approach is simplistic and counterproductive.
“Things are almost never black and white, only shades of grey – like fog,” Dr Westcott told The Mirror. “It’s the diplomat’s job to look for the light in the grey. There are extremists on both sides who want to reduce it to a simple ‘us or them’. But also moderates who are willing to talk and listen. The need is to create space for the latter, not stoke up the former.
“Geopolitics is never that simple,” reiterated Dr Gilder, emphasising that the conflict cannot be isolated from its broader regional context, “Israel-Iran relations are heavily influenced by other countries such as the US, Saudi Arabia and others.”
Professor Glees highlighted that to some extent it “makes good political sense for us to distinguish between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ and appeal with our official media outlets to the ‘good’ ones,” adding that the UK did so “to great effect during WW2 when we knew that not every German was a Nazi, not every Italian a Fascist, something that allowed us to be respected when we’d got rid of the Fascists in Germany and Italy and for our views of how they should move to free democracies were followed so successfully.”
However, he added, “This is a big question. What I would say is that our government and our media needs to make it plain that in police states like Iran, or in totally traumatised states like Israel, it is hard to know who is ‘good’ and who is ‘bad’. We always need to ask ourselves what people would be like if they had a different leadership and were truly at liberty to lead their lives in peace.”
Breaking out of ‘Us versus Them’ mindset
Both Israel and Iran have a religious basis at the very core of their states – and this means, the experts explain, things can be overly simplified into an “us versus them” scenario. “Often the whole conflict is reduced to religious over-simplification – Jews versus Muslims,” explained Dr Westcott, adding, “This helps no one.”
“Both Israel and Iran have strong relationships between religion and the state that has led to some calling them theocracies,” Dr Gilder noted, highlighting that “There is a large diaspora of Iranian jews that left Iran following the Islamic Revolution and moved to Israel.” Prior to the Iranian revolution in 1979, Israel and Iran maintained favourable relations, but this dramatically shifted once the Shah was deposed.
From then on, official ties were severed between the two nations, and anti-Israel rhetoric has escalated over the years, with cries for “death to Israel” becoming commonplace and a former president denying the Holocaust ever occurred. Tensions have only heightened, but for a long time, these took the form of a proxy war.
Iran has consistently backed Israel’s adversaries. Since Hezbollah’s establishment in 1982, the Lebanese group has received funding, arms, and training from Iran.
Militias in Yemen and Iraq have similarly benefited from Iran’s support, and Hamas has also received funding and weaponry from Iran, leading the US government to label the country a “state sponsor of terrorism” since 1984. This use of “proxies” was cited by Trump as another reason behind the conflict. “From Lebanon to Yemen, and Syria to Iraq, the regime has armed, trained and funded terrorist militias that have soaked the earth with blood and guts. And it was Iran’s proxy, Hamas, that launched the monstrous October 7 attacks on Israel,” he said today.
Iran’s conflicts had remained ‘cold’ in this manner for an extended period, and the American University has noted these actions “demonstrate the control that Iran exerts over conflicts in the region – without ever becoming officially involved in the conflicts.” Dr Gilder explained that the reality that “Iran has long been accused of state-sponsored terrorism against Israel and the West” only “deepens these strong feelings” of one side towards the other.
Iran is “determined to demonise the other side, stoke up hatred,” explains Dr Westcott, “Hence some of the misinformation going round on social media. “And many people still believe what they want to hear, and don’t look for objective truth. So positions polarise, and the truth gets lost. Governments have a responsibility to stick to the truth and avoid, not propagate, false reports.”
Hamas, Gaza, and normalisation
The financing of groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah doesn’t mean Iran has total control over them. Nevertheless, Professor Joe Young has stated that operating in this fashion gives Iran “plausible deniability” and whilst they lack “full control” over Hamas or Hezbollah for example, “Ceding some of that control over a proxy group’s interests is a price that Iran is willing to pay to keep conflicts with the US and Saudi Arabia from escalating to full-scale war.”
Iran officially recognises Palestine as a state, and has formally backed the Palestinian people against “Israeli occupation” – following the 1979 revolution, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) was given the keys to the former Israeli embassy in Tehran, in what was viewed as a symbolic gesture of transformation.
Nevertheless, the Palestinian Authority rebuffed Iran’s involvement, stating in 2024 that they had “no objective [other] than to sow chaos”. Regardless of whether Iran’s motives for funding and backing Hamas are purely self-serving to wage a proxy war, or stem from genuine concern about the plight of Palestinians, Israel’s continued assault on Gaza has damaged its standing in the international community.
Professor Glees, whilst “appalled” by the October 7 attacks on Israel by Hamas that witnessed “unspeakable evil” unfold, has also been “horrified” by Israel’s conduct in Gaza, describing it as a “war of revenge”. “We here in the UK, like our strong allies in Europe, reject the idea of ‘security through land-grabbing’; we were utterly appalled by the brutal murder, rape and hostage taking of October 7 2023, when over a thousand Jews were killed simply because they were Jews.
“It reminded us, rightly, of the pogroms in the 19th century and, above all, of the Holocaust when 6 to 10 million Jews were coldly exterminated by the Germans simply because they were Jews. However, the war that Israel has been fighting in Gaza, so far without success, has horrified us. Whilst we believe, I think, the Hamas terrorists should be destroyed, it is plain that the Israeli government led by Netanyahu not only failed the Israelis by a total lack of intelligence about Hamas and its plots but then went on to fight a war of revenge, in which more than 50,000 civilians were killed and are still being killed.”
Strong emotions surround these conflicts and the nations of Iran and Israel across all perspectives. “I think the real reason the strong feelings are being generated is because of our sense of justice,” Professor Glees explained. “That’s really important. The British people, in particular, are fair and believe in justice. We think that Israel has a right to exist because of what was done to the Jews by the Nazis and by anti-Semitic viewpoints throughout Europe, including the UK.
“But for exactly the same reason, we understand and support the Palestinians in their quest for their own nation, and we are appalled at the brutal way they are being treated by now. Just as Jews could never forget what was done to them, we know the Palestinian people will be equally shaped by their fate right now.
“What has made things so much harder, and this comes back in part of Iran, is Islamist extremism and terror. Ayatollahs and Islamist (not Islamic) faith leaders have radicalised three generations of young Muslims who have spread violence and death globally in support of the Palestinians. Most Brits, I believe, understand that a just cause (a free Palestine) does not justify acts of unspeakable evil, whoever executes them. That’s why we have believed in a rules-based system. Sadly, it will disappear if we do not fight for it.”
The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, went so far as to praise the October 7 attacks, describing them as essential to thwart the plans of the US, Israel and “some of the region’s countries to change the equation in the region.” This was widely interpreted as a reference to the continuing normalisation efforts aimed at establishing relations between Israel and neighbouring states, including Saudi Arabia.
As Dr Gilder highlighted to The Mirror, the conflict and tensions between Iran and Israel do not exist in isolation, but are shaped by the broader state of relations across the Gulf. He explained: “Iran has also been concerned at the potential for improved relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel that could lead to intelligence and military cooperation that threatens Iran’s position in the region.” Now, with explosions reported across the region, countries closing the airspaces, and the potential for escalation a terrifying prospect, the relationships in the wider region matter more than ever.