Net migration to the UK is expected to stay below 300,00 a year – with a growing exodus of Britons moving abroad behind lower population estimates.
In its latest forecasts, published today, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said net migration to the UK is expected to average 235,000 a year from 2026 to 2030.
This is 60,000 lower than the budget watchdog’s previous forecast in November last year, which was 295,000 a year.
The OBR said this was ‘driven entirely by a more negative assumption for net migration by British nationals’.
Net migration is the number of people moving long-term to the UK minus the number of people leaving the country.
In its latest forecast, released alongside Chancellor Rachel Reeves‘ Spring Statement, the OBR said net migration in 2026 is likely to be 200,000, down from 262,000 in its previous forecast.
Net migration is then expected to climb each year to reach 281,000 in 2030, lower than the previous forecast of 340,000.
The OBR pointed to how the Office for National Statistics (ONS) had recently revised down its estimates for recent net inward migration, mostly due to higher estimated emigration by British nationals.
In its latest forecasts, published today, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said net migration to the UK is expected to average 235,000 a year from 2026 to 2030
Net migration is then expected to climb each year to reach 281,000 in 2030, lower than the previous forecast of 340,000
The OBR said the level of net migration has a ‘significant impact on the level of real GDP’.
Ms Reeves has previously been warned that a drop in net migration and ‘subdued’ tax receipts are looming challenges for the public finances.
In her Spring Statement on Tuesday, the Chancellor said she had the ‘right economic plan’ for the UK despite the OBR slashing its forecast for economic growth this year.
The OBR indicated gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 1.1 per cent in 2026, down from the 1.4 per cent it forecast in November.
But the watchdog upgraded its forecasts for 2027 and 2028 from 1.5 per cent to 1.6 per cent.
Ms Reeves said the changes in GDP forecast took account of a fall in net migration and said average growth across the next five years was ‘largely unchanged’ despite this year’s downgrade.
Harry Quilter-Pinner, executive director of the IPPR think tank, said lower net migration ‘poses a medium-term risk to public finances’.
The Resolution Foundation said the projected fall in net migration ‘will be claimed as a political win for the Government’.
But the think tank added it’s ‘entirely driven by more British people leaving the UK, rather than fewer foreign nationals arriving’.
ONS figures published in November showed net migration had falled to the lowest annual figure since 2021.
The number dropped to 204,000 in the year to June 2025, down 69 per cent year-on-year from 649,000 during the previous 12 months.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the fall was ‘a step in the right direction’ following ‘unprecedented’ net migration in recent years.
An estimated 898,000 people immigrated to the UK in the year to June 2025, while 693,000 emigrated, according to the ONS figures.
Net migration peaked at a record 944,000 in the year to March 2023 but has fallen sharply since then.
The ONS said the decrease in net migration was driven by fewer people from outside the EU arriving in the UK for work or to study, along with an increase in people moving out of the country.