Labour is on course to lose more than 1,700 council seats in a local election bloodbath on May 7, according to a new AI-driven poll.
Sir Keir Starmer‘s party is set to retain fewer than a quarter of the 2,252 seats it currently holds which are to be contested, and relinquish control of 49 councils.
The modelling by Bombe shows that Reform and the Greens are on to make the most gains at the expense of Labour, which may win the fewest seats of any of the main parties.
Reform could pick up more than 1,500 seats and control of 17 more English councils, with the Greens almost 600 councillors and nine councils to the good.
If the end result is close to the modelling it will cause panic in government ranks and give impetus to calls for Sir Keir to step down or be removed by his ministers.
Bombe’s ‘Results Based Modelling’ analysis builds on MRP polls and uses a ward-level prediction model that has accurately predicted the results of 17 out of the last 20 by-election results, including Gorton and Denton earlier this month.
It suggests Reform is set to win big in rural and small town areas of England. The Greens, meanwhile are a real threat to Labour in cities, with the model suggesting the party could take over several London boroughs and become a force in Manchester.
But it also shows there are many five-way marginal seats up for grabs and an increase of councils under control of no one party, a reflection of the fragmented nature of UK politics.
Mike Joslin, co-founder and CEO of Bombe, said: ‘Reform and the Greens are the insurgents and they are concentrating their votes in different areas.
‘Reform is building a power base on the outskirts of cities, with significant potential gains among white voters in inner-city areas – meaning they could win some wards in places like Southwark.
‘The Greens are looking in a strong position to win liberally minded Council’s like Hackney and Lambeth.
‘A big takeaway is how fragmented the electorate is. Many areas are five-way marginals and a strong local campaign will make the difference between winning and losing.
‘So the final results could be different due to the campaign. This year could be the year local campaigning has the most impact on results.’
The Bombe model divides the population into nine demographic and seven commercial ‘personas’, with real world data added and AI used to extrapolate results.
Labour currently controls 21 of London’s 32 boroughs and party insiders are already warning that the rise of the Greens could cost them hundreds of seats in the capital.
Just over 5,000 council seats across 136 English councils will be decided on May 7, as will the devolved governments in Scotland and Wales.
The elections are now seen as a litmus test for whether Sir Keir can survive as PM after months of dire poll ratings.
Sir Keir Starmer’s party is set to retain fewer than a quarter of the 2,252 seats it currently holds which are to be contested, and control of 49 councils
The modelling by Bombe shows that Reform and the Greens are on to make the most gains at the expense of Labour, which may win the fewest seats of any of the main parties
This week a leading expert said a hard-Left election pact between Zack Polanski, Jeremy Corbyn and George Galloway could inflict ‘very substantial’ losses on Labour.
This month’s by-election in Manchester saw Labour pushed into third place behind the Greens and Reform in what had been one of Labour’s safest seats.
The victory came after Mr Corbyn’s Your Party and Mr Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain agreed to stand aside to avoid splitting the hard-Left and Muslim vote.
Elections expert Robert Hayward said there was ‘potential’ for the experiment to be repeated on a national scale in May in what will be the biggest test of public opinion since the general election in 2024.